Shining India is back. At least that’s what many hyperbolic Indians would have you believe. With China’s economy slowing and its markets and policymaking credentials upended, India is plausibly poised to take over as the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Many Indians, deploying language that evokes the “India Shining” campaign used when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party was last in power a decade ago, see more than a glimmer of opportunity in China’s misfortunes.

大放光芒的印度回来了。至少，许多喜好夸夸其谈的印度人会让你如此认为。随着中国经济放缓、市场动荡和政策制定能力遭到质疑，印度似乎真的就要接替中国成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。许多印度人的言论，让人想起10年前印度人民党(Bharatiya Janata party)上次执政期间盛行的“印度大放光芒”(India Shining)运动。他们从中国遭遇的困境中看到的不只是一线机遇。

Arun Jaitley, finance minister, said in an interview with the BBC: “An economy which can grow at 8 to 9 per cent like India certainly has viable shoulders to provide support to the global economy.” Adi Godrej, head of the eponymous consumer goods group, said it was a fine time for India to “shine”. In one of the strongest “move-over-China” remarks, Jayant Sinha, minister of state for finance, said Delhi was ready to “take the baton of global growth” from Beijing. He chirpily told an audience in Bihar, one of India’s poorest and most benighted states: “In coming days, India will leave China behind as far as growth and development matter.”

印度财长阿伦騠祎魲(Arun Jaitley)在接受BBC采访时表示：“像印度这样一个增速可达8%至9%的经济体，当然拥有坚实的臂膀为全球经济提供支撑。”执掌同名消费品集团的亿万富翁阿迪戈德瑞吉(Adi Godrej)称，现在正是印度“大放光芒”的好时机。在各种“超越中国”(move-over-China)言论中，最激烈的言辞之一出自财政国务部长贾扬特鬠哈(Jayant Sinha)，他说，新德里已经准备好从北京手中“接过全球增长的接力棒”。他兴奋地告诉比哈尔邦（印度最穷、最落后的邦之一）的听众：“用不了多久，印度就将在增长和发展方面把中国甩在身后。”

On the face of it, there is room for optimism. As China seeks to wean itself off supercharged investment, its economy will inevitably slow. Officially, growth will glide down to 7 per cent this year. More likely, it could quickly head towards 5 per cent or below. India, meanwhile, is expected to expand at 7.7 per cent.

表面上看，印度有乐观的理由。随着中国逐步减少对过度投资的依赖，经济放缓不可避免。根据官方的说法，中国经济今年增速将下滑至7%。更有可能的是，这一速度会很快降至5%，或者更低。与此同时，印度经济增速预计将达到7.7%。

Unlike many other emerging economies, including fellow Brics nations Brazil, Russia and South Africa, India has not been buoyed by exports of high-priced commodities. That means it will not be dragged down by the Chinese-induced commodities slump. Far from it. India, the world’s third-biggest petroleum importer , benefits greatly from weak oil prices, which improve its current account position and ease inflationary pressures. Nor is India a big exporter of manufactured goods. Even if global demand is weak, its economy is relatively insulated, with 57 per cent of gross domestic product coming from household consumption.

不同于许多其他新兴经济体（包括其他金砖国家，如巴西、俄罗斯和南非），印度经济此前并未受益于高价大宗商品的出口。这也意味着它不会受到中国引发的大宗商品价格暴跌的拖累。不只如此。作为世界第三大石油进口国，印度极大地获益于油价的低迷，低油价改善了该国的经常账户状况并缓解了通胀压力。印度也并非工业制成品出口大国。即使全球需求疲软，印度经济也相对不受影响，家庭消费占到国内生产总值(GDP)的57%。

Yet the idea that India is poised to become the global economy’s main event is flawed to say the least. If it induces complacency, it is positively dangerous. Hopes that India can replace China as the engine of global growth are wide of the mark. In nominal terms — the most appropriate measure when judging an economy’s global impact — India’s output is one-fifth that of China’s. India makes up a mere 2.5 per cent of global GDP against a hefty 13.5 per cent for China. If China grew at 5 per cent annually, it would add an Indian-sized economy to its already hefty output in less than four years. Saying India can match this is like saying a mouse can pull a tractor.

然而，印度即将在全球经济中扮演重头戏的说法至少是错误的。如果这种想法引发了自满，那无疑是危险的。期待印度取代中国成为全球增长引擎的想法是不切实际的。按名义价值计算（判断一个经济体的全球影响力的最恰当指标），印度的产出仅为中国的五分之一。印度仅占全球GDP的2.5%，而中国占比高达13.5%。如果中国以每年5%的速度增长，就可以在不到4年时间里为本国已然巨大的产出增添一个印度规模大小的经济体。说印度足可匹敌，就好比说一只老鼠可以拉动一辆拖拉机。

On balance, people have read too much into China’s market spasms. Certainly, botched attempts to prop up the stock market and to move to a more flexible exchange rate have shaken confidence in the perceived infallibility of Chinese policymaking. Certainly, too, recent turmoil is symptomatic of a deeper malaise in the Chinese economy as it goes through the pain of shifting from investment-led to consumption-led growth. For China, the days of relatively easy catch-up have ended. Yet to write China off is badly misguided. It has the momentum of 30 years’ extraordinary expansion behind it.

总而言之，人们过度解读了中国的市场波动。当然，提振股市的笨拙尝试以及在此时实施更灵活的汇率机制动摇了人们对中国在政策制定方面无往而不胜的信心。当然，随着中国经历从投资驱动型向消费驱动型增长的痛苦转型，近期的动荡也暴露出中国经济更深层次的问题。对中国而言，相对容易赶超的日子已经结束。然而，轻视中国是大错特错。中国经历了30年高速扩张，其积蓄的动能非同小可。

The idea that India will effortlessly float above Chinese growth levels is hopelessly smug. India’s statistics are as dubious as those of China. People forget that only last February, India changed the way it calculated GDP, adding more than 2 percentage points to its headline growth rate. On the old measure, India is still limping along at a far from impressive 5 per cent.

认为印度将轻而易举超越中国经济增长水平的想法是无可救药地自以为是。印度的统计数据与中国的一样可疑。人们也许已经忘记，就在去年2月，印度改变了统计GDP的方法，为本国整体增长率添加了逾2个百分点。如果按照以往统计方法，印度仍在以并非多么令人印象深刻的5%速度踯躅前行。

Inflated growth breeds a false sense of security. That may help explain why Mr Modi’s government has been so slow to pass much-trumpeted reforms. In this session of parliament, almost nothing has been done. The prime minister has been unable to enact a goods and services tax, which economists agree would make it easier to do business across a diverse set of states. Faced with opposition from farmers, he has all but abandoned land reform, which would have made it simpler to build factories, roads and power plants. Doing business in India continues to be anything but easy.

虚高的经济增速会让人滋生一种虚假的安全感。这可能有助于解释，为什么莫迪政府迟迟未通过曾被大力鼓吹的改革措施。本次议会会期几乎一事无成。莫迪未能开征商品及服务税，经济学家们认为这项税收政策将使得在差异巨大的各邦之间做生意更加便利。在农民的反对之下，他几乎放弃了土地改革，那些改革将使建设工厂、公路及电厂更加容易。在印度做生意仍然困难重重。

While the country is relatively isolated from the world economy, that is partly because it does not make much that others deem worth buying. For a country that wants to be the manufacturing hub to replace China, that seems more like a weakness than a strength.

虽然印度与世界经济相对隔绝，但造成这种局面的部分原因是印度未能制造出多少其他国家认为值得购买的产品。对于一个想要取代中国成为世界制造业中心的国家来说，这看起来更像是弱点，而非优势。

None of these problems will disappear because rather dubious statistics say India is growing faster than China. Indian officials would do well to stop gloating — and start enacting some meaningful change.

所有这些问题，不会因为相当可疑的数据显示印度经济增速已超过中国而消失。印度官员最好别再志得意满，而要开始推动通过一些切实的改革。