The head of the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that emerging markets are set to face a renewed period of economic instability when US interest rates rise this year, forecasting a repeat of 2013’s damaging “taper tantrum” episode of capital flight and rapid currency depreciation.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)周二警告说，今年美国加息时，新兴市场经济将再次面临一段时间的不稳定。她预言新兴市场会再次上演2013年时那种具有破坏性的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum，指美联储宣布将退出量化宽松政策时造成的市场波动——译者注)，遭遇资本外逃和快速货币贬值。
The remarks by Christine Lagarde, given during a speech in India, came as Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen was expected to signal an end to the Fed’s policy of low rates guidance today, with global investors braced for an initial rise in US rates as early as June.
拉加德是在印度的一个讲话中发表上述言论的。就在她发表上述言论之际，人们预计美联储(Fed)主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)将于周三释放出结束美联储低利率指引政策的信号。目前，全球投资者正在为美国最早于6月开始加息做准备。
The IMF chief said she feared that negative “spillover” effects from these increases would lead to a re-run of the crisis that hit developing economies such as India and Turkey nearly two years ago, following hints from then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke of an early end to the institution’s bond purchasing programme known as quantitative easing.
拉加德表示，她担心上述加息的负面“溢出”效应会导致将近两年前冲击印度、土耳其等发展中经济体的危机重演。当年的那场危机，是在时任美联储主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)多次暗示将提前结束被称为量化宽松的债券购买计划后出现的。
“I am afraid this may not be a one-off episode,” Ms Lagarde said. “The timing of interest rate lift-off and the pace of subsequent rate increases can still surprise markets.”
拉加德表示：“我担心这次可能不会是一次性的动荡。加息的时机选择以及后续加息的步伐可能仍会让市场感到意外。”
Ms Lagarde spoke at an event in Mumbai alongside Raghuram Rajan, Reserve Bank of India governor, who has warned repeatedly on the dangers to developing economies of ending loose monetary policy in the US, Japan and other industrialised economies.
拉加德是在孟买与印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行长拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)共同参加一项活动时发表上述讲话的。在此之前，拉詹曾多次警告说，美国、日本及其他发达经济体宽松货币政策的终结会对发展中经济体构成威胁。
Developing economies have seen a surge in capital from the industrialised world in recent years, receiving $4.5tn of gross capital inflows between 2009 and 2012, according to IMF data, or half of all global capital flows during that period.
IMF数据显示，最近几年从发达经济体流向发展中经济体的资金激增，2009年到2012年间，总计有4.5万亿美元资金流入发展中经济体，占同期全球资金流动规模的一半。
Ms Lagarde warned that emerging economies faced a second risk from the recent strength of the US currency, with indebted companies that took advantage of low rates to borrow in dollars facing sudden and steep jumps in debt servicing costs.
拉加德警告说，近期美元的走强让新兴经济体面临另一个风险。趁美国利率处于低位之机借入美元贷款的企业，会面临偿债成本急剧升高的局面。
India’s corporate sector, which is already dealing with concerns over corporate indebtedness and weak bank capitalisation, was “not immune to this vulnerability”.
目前已在应对企业债务和薄弱银行资本状况的印度企业部门，也“不能免受这一问题的影响”。
Dollar-denominated corporate debt had risen “very rapidly, nearly doubling in the last five years” to $120bn.
以美元计价的企业债增长得“极为迅速，在过去5年里几乎翻了一番”，达到1200亿美元。
“The appreciation of the US dollar is also putting pressure on balance sheets of banks, firms and households that borrow in dollars but have assets or earnings in other currencies,” she said.
她说：“美元升值还为某些银行、企业和家庭的资产负债表带来压力，他们的债务以美元计价，资产或收益却以其他货币计价。”
Facing these twin threats, Ms Lagarde urged emerging market governments to enact economic reforms to raise growth, improve their current account positions and gradually liberalise financial ­markets.
拉加德敦促道，面临上述双重威胁，新兴市场政府应实施经济改革以提振增长，改善经常账户收支状况，并逐步放开金融市场。
The IMF head also called on emerging market central bank governors to prepare emergency measures to support under-pressure currencies and companies struggling with debt repayments.
拉加德还呼吁新兴市场央行的行长准备应急措施，以支撑承压的货币和偿债困难的企业。
“Temporary — though aggressive — domestic liquidity support to certain sectors or markets may be necessary, along with targeted foreign exchange interventions,” she said.
她说：“除了有针对性的外汇干预，或许还有必要在国内对某些部门或市场提供临时但激进的流动性支持。”
In December, the Bank for International Settlements warned there was a risk of a repeat of the late-1990s emerging market crises because of increased cross-border lending to emerging economies since 2008.
2014年12月，国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)曾警告说，1990年代末的新兴市场危机有重演的风险，原因是2008年以来对新兴经济体的跨境贷款有所增加。
By the middle of last year, according to the BIS, lending to emerging economies had risen to $3.1tn, most of it denominated in dollars.
国际清算银行数据显示，截至去年年中，对新兴经济体的贷款已增至3.1万亿美元，其中多数贷款都是以美元计价的。