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埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)首席执行官表示,世界应该“适应”一个油价相对疲弱的时期,而美国页岩油生产的适应力超过许多人此前的预期。
The world should “settle in” for a period of relatively weak oil prices, the chief executive of ExxonMobil has said, with US shale production more resilient than many people had expected.
雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)发表上述言论之际,全球最大的上市能源公司表示,今年将削减资本支出12%,这个迹象表明能源业正通过削减成本来应对原油价格暴跌。
Rex Tillerson’s comments came as the world’s largest listed energy company said it would cut capital spending by 12 per cent this year, in a sign of how the industry is cutting costs in response to the plunge in crude prices.
蒂勒森在纽约的年度分析师会议上表示,油价之所以暴跌,是因为中国和其他地区的需求增长放缓,同时美国供应“就像一列货运列车一样驶来”。他说,这些状况可能会持续。
Mr Tillerson told an annual meeting for analysts in New York that oil prices had crashed because demand growth in China and elsewhere had slowed, while US supplies were “coming like a freight train”. Those conditions could persist, he said.
蒂勒森表示:“我认为,人们需要在一段时期适应这种局面。目前有大量的供应,而且我没有看到特别健康的世界经济。”
“My view is people need to kind of settle in for a while,” he said. “There’s a lot of supply out there and I don’t see a particularly healthy world economy.”
油价自去年夏季以来下跌约50%,这使得人们预计,如果油价没有迅速反弹的话,近年快速增长的美国产量将很快趋缓,甚至可能下降。
The fall of about 50 per cent in oil prices since last summer has led to expectations that US production, which has grown rapidly in recent years, will soon level off and perhaps go into decline if prices do not rebound quickly.
但蒂勒森表示,页岩气行业的先例——尽管价格下跌和钻井机数量大幅下降,但页岩气产量继续增长——似乎表明,美国石油产量将比人们所假设的更加强劲。
But Mr Tillerson said the precedent of the shale gas industry, where output has continued to grow as prices fell and the number of rigs drilling wells dropped sharply, suggested US oil output would be more robust than assumed.
他补充称,在页岩气领域削减成本并提高生产率的公司往往也生产页岩油或“致密”油,这意味着美国石油业将不会被低油价和其他地区的竞争击垮。他说:“我认为你也将会在致密油领域看到一些同样的适应力,因此它将在全球展开竞争。”
The same companies that had cut costs and increased productivity in shale gas were often involved in shale or “tight” oil as well, he added, meaning that the industry would not be crushed by low prices and competition from other regions. “I think you’re going to see some of the same resilience on the tight oil side, too. And therefore it will compete globally,” he said.
蒂勒森向分析师们表示,埃克森美孚计划将今年的年度资本支出削减至约340亿美元(之前预期为370亿美元),2016-17年度的资本支出还会略低一些。但他坚持该集团一年前的预测,即到2017年,其产量将达到430万桶石油当量/日,高于去年的400万桶石油当量/日。
Mr Tillerson told analysts Exxon planned to cut annual capital spending for this year to about $34bn, and to a little less for 2016-17, down from an earlier projection of $37bn. But he stuck to the group’s prediction from a year ago that by 2017 its production would reach 4.3m barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 4m b/d last year.
他的言论进一步表明,石油供应商应对油价暴跌的时间可能比许多高管和分析师预计的更长。
His comments are further evidence that oil suppliers’ response to the plunge in prices could take longer than many executives and analysts expected.
埃克森美孚规划的资本支出削减幅度与美国第二大石油集团雪佛龙(Chevron)拟议的削减幅度相当,但低于英国石油公司(BP)宣布的20%的削减幅度。
Exxon’s planned capital spending cut is in line with the reduction planned by Chevron, the second-largest US oil group, but smaller than the 20 per cent drop announced by BP.
蒂勒森还暗示,埃克森美孚研究了许多潜在的收购目标,由于油价下跌,这些目标的估值显得更具吸引力。他说:“我们感兴趣且在考虑的目标真的没啥限制。当然有人在接洽我们。”
Mr Tillerson also suggested Exxon had looked at numerous possible acquisition targets, with valuations potentially looking more attractive as a result of the fall in oil prices. “There really is no limitation on what we might be interested in and considering,” he said. “Obviously people are approaching us.”
他补充称,埃克森美孚将只会收购它相信能够提高被收购企业盈利能力的目标。
He added that Exxon would only make takeovers where it believed it could raise the profitability of the acquired business.
预计埃克森美孚天然气产量的下降将持续至2017年,但石油产量今年将增长7%。
Exxon’s gas production is expected to continue to decline until 2017, but oil is set to rise 7 per cent this year.