It's time to stop wallowing in pessimismabout the world's future.
不要再悲观于世界未来了。
Over the past four weeks, we’ve had a runof undeniably good news. A panoply of data has shown that the U.S. economicsystem appears to be on firm ground. More people have jobs, albeit notnecessarily sterling jobs, and the pace of overall activity as measured by GDPis at the highest level in two years, expanding at 4.1 percentannually. On the political front, Congress passed a budget for the first timein more than three years, which suggests a period ahead where Washingtontantrums do not threaten to upend whatever delicate equilibrium currentlyexists.
在过去四周时间里，确实发生了很多好新闻。华丽丽的数据表明美国经济正变得稳健。更多人找到工作，虽然这些工作并非都是非常好的工作，总体的GDP是两年来最好的，每年都增加4.1%。在政治领域，国会三年多来首次通过了预算案，表明在未来一段时期内，不管华盛顿政界风云如何变化，都不可能威胁到目前的大好局势。
And yet, an aura of unease still seems tohover over us. In the year or more that I have written this column, I haveoften emphasized the way in which things may be going at least a bit right.That contrasts with the frequently repeated mantra that we are goingdangerously off the rails. Of course, like anyone, I may be right or wrong orsomewhere in between. What’s been perplexing about responses to this column,however, isn’t whether the analysis is right or wrong, wise or naïve, but thatthe very hint of optimism makes a fair number of people extremely angry.
然而，一种不安气氛依旧笼罩着我们。在我写专栏文章的这一年多来，我一直都强调事情正在好转。与此形成相反的是，坊间还是流传着大量的悲观咒语，说我们正在一步步危险的脱离正轨。当然，像任何人一样，我的看法有对的，也有不对的，或者介于两者之间。然而在看了人们对我文章的回复后，令人费解的他们所关心的并非我所写的东西是对是错、明智的还是天真的，而是对文章中的乐观情绪表现出极度的愤怒。
It may be, of course, that my optimism ismisplaced. It may be that the United States is actually headed to hell in aproverbial handbasket; that Europe is in a brief lull before its next legtoward dissolution of the Union; that Japan’s easy money spigot unleashed bythe new government of Shinzo Abe will end with the same no-exit stagnation ofthe past 20 years; and the glorious story of emerging economies from Brazil toMexico to India to China will end not so gloriously. It may also be thatwhatever appears to be working in the developed world is in truth working onlyfor a small minority—for the wealthy and members of the middle class inprivileged urban areas, and for anyone tethered to financial markets and globalcommerce.
当然，也有可能是我的乐观情绪放错位了。或许美国越来越没得救了；欧盟也存在解体的风险；而日本如今的宽松货币政策或许将导致另外一个衰退的20年；而新兴国家比如巴西、墨西哥、印度和中国的经济神话或许不会有灿烂的结局。还有就是不管发达国家如何发展，其最终受益者都是那些都市里的特权中产阶级，或者是金融市场和全球贸易里的商人。
But possibly being wrong doesn’t explainthe anger my columns have provoked, in the form of email and online reactions.Weather forecasters and sports experts are routinely wrong about outcomes, andwhile those missed predictions can trigger some ridicule, they’re not usually arecipe for rage.
虽然我的乐观情绪可能是不对的，但是这并不能解释为何我的文章会引发这么多的愤怒，有些人发邮件给我表达他们的愤怒，有的直接在网上回复。天气预报和体育专家也有不准确的时候，虽然二者的错误预测可能会引发人们的嘲弄，但并不经常引起人们的巨大愤怒。
True, the online world of comments andcommentary skews towards the negative, especially in the realm of economics andpolitics. People are more likely to express feelings based on disagreement anda sense of outrage than they are to react based on concord. Anger is a hotexperience that triggers action; agreement, even strong agreement, tends to bea more passive reaction.
是的，网民们的评论和观点都倾向于消极，特别是在经济和政治议题上。人们更倾向于表达自己的异议和愤怒，而不是赞许。愤怒才能起激发人们行动；而赞许，甚至是强烈的赞许，只是一种更加消极和被动的反应。
But why does optimism about today’s worldgenerate such strong hostility? Perhaps because it contradicts what many peoplebelieve. Positive views on the present are seen as a slap in the face by peoplewho have negative experiences, which, according to some polls, is the majorityof Americans. Surveys suggest that more Americans than ever—66 percent,according to one poll—believe that the country is headed in the wrongdirection. Other polls say much the same thing. Two years ago the numberswere even worse. Americans of the past few years are less positive about thefuture than they have been at any point since the 1970s.
为什么对如今世界的乐观情绪会激发如此强烈的敌意呢？或者这是因为这与人们的信念相违背了。对那些经历过消极经验的人来说，对现状的乐观情绪就好像是一巴掌拍在他们脸上，而根据一些调查结果显示，大多数美国人都有过消极经验。调查结果表明比以往任何时候都多的美国人——根据一项调查的结果，是66%——认为美国正在朝错误的方向前进。其他民调结果也表明了这一点。而在两年前，这个数据更加糟糕。最近几年的美国人比70年代以来大部分时间里的美国人都更加消极悲观。
Interestingly, according to these surveys,blacks and Hispanics in the United States are more positive about the futurethan whites, perhaps reflecting the degree to which white males have seen theirfortunes decline on a relative basis over the past decades, while Hispanicsespecially have seen significant improvement in incomes andeducation. That said, it is difficult to know the race and gender breakdown ofonline reactions to my political and economic analysis.
好玩的是，根据这些研究的说法，美国的西班牙人和黑人比白人对未来更加积极乐观，这或许反映了过去几十年来白人财富在相对缩水，而西班牙人在收入和教育上有了长足的进步。即便如此，在对我的经济和政治性文章做出回复的人中，我们也不知道这些人是由哪种性别和种族构成的。
The problem is that in a country of 300million people, let alone a world of 7 billion, any statement about an economicor societal trend is likely to differ from the actual experience of a greatmany people. While there may be upsides to the changing mechanisms of oureconomic system, there are unequivocally winners and losers and many shadesbetween. Any suggestion that the struggles of one group may be juxtaposedagainst, though not offset by, the flourishing of another group can seemdisrespectful and even indifferent to the challenges faced by many people.
问题是，在一个3亿人口的国家中，更别提全世界的70亿了，任何对经济和社会趋势所进行的预测都很可能与很多人的实际经验存在反差。虽然经济系统的改变存在好的一面，但是肯定有输家和赢家，还有介于这两者之间的人。一些人的富有与另一些人的贫穷尽管没法抵消，但是可以并行存在，持这种看法的人会被人认为是不敬的和冷漠的。
The answer, however, is not to focusrelentlessly on what isn’t working. Every society must find some balancebetween addressing real shortcomings and building on real strengths. The UnitedStates in particular oscillates between excessive self-congratulation (“theindispensable nation,” “the freest nation on Earth”) and extremeself-criticism. We can be making a transition from a manufacturing economy toan idea economy that sees millions finding a new way, and millions suffering.We can be educating millions brilliantly while failing to educate millions atall. We can see thriving urban centers even as suburban sprawl melts under toomuch debt and overpriced homes.
然而，问题的答案并不在于总是关注不好的一面。任何一个社会都得在解决实际缺陷和建立实际优势之间取得平衡。尤其是美国，在过度的沾沾自喜（“不可或缺的国家，”“世界上最自由的国家“）和极端自我批评之间摇摆不定。我们可以做出转变，把美国从一个制造业经济转变成理念经济，从而使有些人找到了新的生活方式，而另外一些人遭受痛苦。我们可以对一些人进行成功的教育，而使另外一些人在教育上失败。我们可以建立起繁荣的都市中心，而与此同时，郊区负债累累、房价高昂。
Optimism, as the theoretical physicistDavid Deutsch so brilliantly describes in The Beginnings of Infinity,doesn’t mean surety about good future outcomes. Optimism is simply thecertainty that any human progress to date has been a product of our collectiveability to understand how things work and to craft solutions. The convictionthat the present is a prelude to a bad future negates that collective ability.Yes, we may indeed be at the end of the line, but by angrily dismissingoptimistic arguments we are likely to fail more rapidly. Why bother strivingfor constructive change if you firmly reject the possibility? That leaves onlyone viable alternative: to envision a path forward. That path may notmaterialize, but striving to find it is a vital component of creating thefuture we dream about, and not the one that we fear.
正如理论物理学家DavidDeutsch在《无限的开端》中所生动描述的，乐观主义并不是对未来美好结果的保证。乐观主义是对我们人类迄今为止所取得的成就是我们集体思考和能力的产物的观念的肯定。而如果你消极悲观的话，那么你就是在否定这种集体智慧和能力。是的，或许我们已经到达了极限，但是如果我们以愤怒的态度来拒绝乐观的言论，那么我们可能会失败得更快。如果你对未来完全没有信心，那进行结构性的改变又有什么意义？所以我们只有一个选择：想象出一条前进的道路。这条道路或许无法实现，但是只有努力探索我们才可能创造出我们想要的未来，而不是我们害怕的未来。