英文原文

Asia's Monetary Policy Exit Door Is Ajar

Asia's central bankers insist they have no timetable for raising interest rates. Some investors are already placing bets to the contrary.

India, the punters think, will go first. China and Korea won't be far behind.

The money's being put down in the huge, but - to its outsiders - opaque world of interest rate swaps, where the yields on two year maturities across much of Asia have risen sharply in the past few months.

This market, which had $403 trillion worth of contracts outstanding at the end of 2008, draws a range of investors, from the aggressive - hedge fund managers - to the defensive - companies looking to hedge against a change in monetary policy. About a quarter of its volume is traded in Asia.

It is telling a different story than that heard from most economists right now. In India, for example, the swap market is projecting that the Reserve Bank of India will begin raising rates - or certainly start talking seriously about doing so - in a matter of months.

The prediction is that inflation could become a concern for India's central bank far more quickly than economists currently expect.

The market's also been flagging rate rises in Korea and China for some time - with two-year swap yields climbing over a hundred basis points since the first quarter.

This should be taken in context. The swap market can overshoot mainstream expectations, and continue doing so until a central bank has clearly signaled the end of a rate cycle.

But those feeling sanguine about the pace at which Asia's central banks might start tightening, ought to consider that others are already betting very large amounts of money on higher rates being sanctioned soon.

中文翻译

亚洲的中央银行坚持说他们没有加息的时间表。但一些投资者把赌注押在了加息一边。

他们认为印度会最先行动，而中国和韩国将紧随其后。

对一个巨大的、对外界不透明的利率掉期市场里的押注在上升。在这个市场中亚洲许多地方的两年期掉期的收益率在过去几个月里急剧上升。

在2008年底，这个市场的合同价值达到403万亿美元，同时吸引了激进投资者和防御型的投资者，前者包括对冲基金经理，后者如希望对冲货币政策变化的公司。亚洲贡献了这个市场四分之一的交易量。

不过目前加息只是传言，还不曾被大多数经济学家提到。掉期市场预测印度储备银行（Reserve Bank of India）在数月内就要加息，或者至少开始认真考虑这件事。

预测说，印度中央银行开始为通胀担心的时间要早于目前经济学家的预计。

市场也预计中国和韩国会在将来一段时间内加息，为此两年期掉期收益自一季度以来已上升超过100个基点。

这个需要结合前因后果来考虑。掉期市场的行动会先于主流预测，这种状况在某一国中央银行明确表示一个利率周期结束之前还将持续。

但是那些对亚洲中央银行可能开始收紧货币政策满怀希望的人们应该考虑到有投资者在很快可能就会被证明是正确的加息上押了大赌注。