(单词翻译:单击)
When I studied international relations back in the late 80s, early 90s, war in conflict seemed quite simple.
当我在80年代末、90年代初学习国际关系时，冲突中的战争似乎很简单。
There were two sides and they used deterrence and it just seemed that we understood what the rules were.
有两个方面，他们使用了威慑，我们似乎明白规则是什么。
We understood what war looked like and who the parties were.
我们了解战争是什么样子的，以及战争的当事方是谁。
And yet here we are, less than 30 years later, seems much more complicated.
然而，不到30年后的今天，情况似乎复杂得多。
It is much more complicated, and we really shouldn't be surprised by this.
这要复杂得多，我们真的不应该对此感到惊讶。
There are two truisms about war.
关于战争有两条老生常谈。
The first is, the nature of war never actually changes.
第一，战争的性质实际上永远不会改变。
It is always this brutal and feral and dangerous and uncontrollable aspect of human behavior, which we've singularly failed to eradicate so far.
它总是人类行为中残忍、野蛮、危险和无法控制的一面，迄今为止，我们一直未能根除它。
But the thing that always changes over time is how war and conflict are prosecuted and that's affected by culture, but mostly by technology and by thinking.
但随着时间的推移，战争和冲突是如何发生的，受到文化的影响，主要是受技术和思维的影响。
You're absolutely right, at the end of the Second World War, we fell into a Cold War.
你说的完全正确，在第二次世界大战结束时，我们陷入了冷战。
It was a two-sided thing with a superpower on each side of a fence, and it provided a framework within which people thought they understood war and conflict, and that finished in 1989.
这是一个双边的东西，两边各有一个超级大国，它提供了一个框架，让人们理解了战争和冲突，于1989年结束。
Then we thought briefly and wrongly for a while that we'd solved the problem of war, the end of history.
然后，我们短暂而错误地认为我们已经解决了战争问题，是历史的终结。
We at least, in the West, thought we were looking at the inevitable triumph of Western liberal democracy and by about 2010, that was clearly crumbling.
至少，在西方，我们认为我们看到的是西方自由民主必然的胜利，到2010年左右，这显然正在崩溃。
And we now live in a world where the US-led certainties of the post-Cold War era are evaporating as we step firmly into the uncertainties of an Asian century and a multipolar world where, for the first time ever in the history of mankind, we are bumping into the limits of our planet's ability to cope with our demands and expectations.
我们现在生活的世界，以美国为首的后冷战时代的确定性正在消失，我们坚定地步入一个充满不确定性的亚洲世纪和多极世界，同时我们遭遇了人类历史上第一次地球应对我们的需求和期望的极限。
And we know this is serious, but what we can't actually divine yet is how is this going to cause societies to fall apart and nations to fight.
我们知道这很严重，但我们还无法预测这将如何导致社会分裂和国家争斗。
But it surely will over this century.
但在本世纪里一定会发生。
You described how the geostrategic context changed.
你描述了地缘战略背景是如何变化的。
What was the realization that arrived around 2010 and that the nature had fundamentally changed?
2010年左右，人们意识到了什么，性质已经发生了根本性的变化吗？
I think there were three things that mattered.
我认为有三件事很重要。
The first thing is the U.S. stopped taking charge under President Obama.
第一件事是美国不再受奥巴马总统的领导。
The U.S. was pulling back from policing the world in its own image, and that of course has been accelerated by President Trump.
美国正在撤出维护世界秩序的形象，当然，特朗普总统加快了这一进程。
The second thing that happened was the dawning realization this century about China.
发生的第二件事是本世纪人们开始意识到中国。
You just can't compete with the numbers.
你就是不能和数字竞争。
I don't think even China knows how this turns out, but it is reasserting itself in its own image as the dominant power in the world.
我认为即使是中国也不知道结果会是什么，但它正在以自己作为世界主导大国的形象重新确立自己的形象。
And the third thing that's changed is technology.
改变的第三件事是技术。
So many of the things we set great store by, certainly in the arena of conflict, are being literally blown away by the way, technology is changing how war is thought.
很多我们非常看重的东西，当在冲突的舞台上，都被彻底地摧毁了，技术正在改变人们对战争的看法。
