So, there's about seven and a half billion of us.
地球上有大约75亿人口。
The World Health Organization tells us that 300 million of us are depressed,
世界卫生组织说其中大约有3亿抑郁症患者，
and about 800,000 people take their lives every year.
其中每年有约80万人会选择自杀。
A tiny subset of them choose a profoundly nihilistic route,
一小部分人选择了更极端的路线，
which is they die in the act of killing as many people as possible.
他们想杀死尽可能多的人，自己也死在其中。
These are some famous recent examples.
关于这点有很多出名的例子。
And here's a less famous one. It happened about nine weeks ago.
我这儿有一个不那么出名的。它发生在大约9个星期之前。
If you don't remember it, it's because there's a lot of this going on.
如果你们不记得了，那是因为这样的例子实在太多。
Wikipedia just last year counted 323 mass shootings in my home country, the United States.
维基百科列出了在我的祖国，美国，仅在去年就发生的323起大规模枪击案。
Not all of those shooters were suicidal, not all of them were maximizing their death tolls, but many, many were.
这里面并不是所有的凶手都选择了自杀，也并不是每一个凶手都想杀更多的人，但他们大部分都这样想。
An important question becomes: What limits do these people have?
有一个很重要的问题：这些人心中有什么底线吗？
Take the Vegas shooter. He slaughtered 58 people. Did he stop there because he'd had enough?
拿拉斯维加斯枪击案的凶手来说。他杀了58个人。他是因为觉得够了才没有杀更多人吗？
No, and we know this because he shot and injured another 422 people who he surely would have preferred to kill.
不是，我们知道他还射伤了另外422个人，可以确定他也是想杀死这些人的。
We have no reason to think he would have stopped at 4,200.
我们也无法设想他在杀死4200个人之后会不会停下来。
In fact, with somebody this nihilistic, he may well have gladly killed us all.
实际上，人极端到这种程度，他可能很希望把我们都杀掉。
We don't know. What we do know is this: when suicidal murderers really go all in, technology is the force multiplier.
这点我们无法得知。我们知道的是：如果自毁式凶手开始杀人，科技只会成为增加他们杀伤的利器。
And airplane: massively worse, as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed when he forced 149 people to join him in his suicide,
飞机则更要可怕得多，此前安德烈亚斯·卢贝茨逼迫149人同他一起自杀，
smashing a plane into the French Alps. And there are other examples of this.
上飞机后飞机撞向了法国阿尔卑斯山。还有别的例子。
And I'm afraid there are far more deadly weapons in our near future than airplanes, ones not made of metal.
我很担心在不远的将来会出现比飞机更加致命的武器，比如用非金属制作的武器。
So let's consider the apocalyptic dynamics that will ensue
我们来设想一下我们会走向什么样的末日，
if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride on a rapidly advancing field that for the most part holds boundless promise for society.
如果这些自杀式袭击者利用了某个关系国计民生的又发展迅速的产业。
Somewhere out there in the world,
在世界的某个地方，
there's a tiny group of people who would attempt, however ineptly, to kill us all if they could just figure out how.
有一小群人，如果他们掌握了方法，他们会通过不恰当地尝试杀死我们所有人。
The Vegas shooter may or may not have been one of them,
拉斯维加斯枪击案的凶手可能就是他们中的一个，也有可能不是，
but with seven and a half billion of us, this is a nonzero population.
但是我们有75亿人口，到处都有人生活着。
There's plenty of suicidal nihilists out there. We've already seen that.
而自杀式的虚无主义者也有很多。我们已经见识过了。
There's people with severe mood disorders that they can't even control.
有些人的极端情绪他们自己都控制不住。
There are people who have just suffered deranging traumas, etc. etc.
有些人正忍受着精神创伤。等等等等。
As for the corollary group, its size was simply zero forever until the Cold War,
在冷战之前，基本不存在两极化，
when suddenly, the leaders of two global alliances attained the ability to blow up the world.
但突然这两个集团的领导人就获得了炸毁世界的能力。
The number of people with actual doomsday buttons has stayed fairly stable since then.
从那时开始，控制世界末日按钮的人数保持稳定。
But I'm afraid it's about to grow, and not just to three.
但我很担心这个数字会增长。
This is going off the charts. I mean, it's going to look like a tech business plan.
这个趋势让人不安。感觉就像是高新科技商业计划。
And the reason is, we're in the era of exponential technologies,
我担心的理由在于，我们生活在一个指数技术的时代，
which routinely take eternal impossibilities and make them the actual superpowers of one or two living geniuses and
例行公事地做永远不可能的事，把超级权力交到一到两个天才手中，
this is the big part -- then diffuse those powers to more or less everybody.
这是问题所在--然后把这些权力交给每一个人。
Now, here's a benign example.
还有一个贴切的例子。
If you wanted to play checkers with a computer in 1952,
在1952年，如果你想跟电脑下跳棋，
you literally had to be that guy, then commandeer one of the world's 19 copies of that computer,
你必须要拥有世界上的19台计算机之一。
then used your Nobel-adjacent brain to teach it checkers. That was the bar.
然后用你那跟诺贝尔同样聪明的脑袋教会它下跳棋的规则。这就是门槛所在。
Today, you just need to know someone who knows someone who owns a telephone,
而现在，你只需要通过一个人，认识另一个有电话的人，
because computing is an exponential technology.
因为计算是一种指数技术。
So is synthetic biology, which I'll now refer to as "synbio."
合成生物学也是这样，我把它叫做synbio。
And in 2011, a couple of researchers did something every bit as ingenious and unprecedented as the checkers trick with H5N1 flu.
2015年，一群研究员用H5N1流感做了一些事，他们的行为就像跳棋策略一样充满创造力。
This is a strain that kills up to 60 percent of the people it infects, more than Ebola.
这种病毒会杀死60%的感染者，比埃博拉病毒杀伤力更大。
But it is so uncontagious that it's killed fewer than 50 people since 2015.
但是这种病毒传染性不强，从2015年开始死于这一病毒的人还不足50人。
So these researchers edited H5N1's genome and made it every bit as deadly, but also wildly contagious.
于是这些研究院重新编写了H5N1的基因组，让它足够致命同时传染性也大大增强。
The news arm of one of the world's top two scientific journals said
世界两大科技期刊之一的一位新闻主管称，
if this thing got out, it would likely cause a pandemic with perhaps millions of deaths.
如果这种病毒流出，很有可能会发生一场瘟疫，也许会有数百万人死去。
And Dr. Paul Keim said he could not think of an organism as scary as this,
保罗·凯姆博士表示，他想不到世界上还有这样可怕的有机体，
which is the last thing I personally want to hear from the Chairman of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
这是我个人最不愿意从国家生物安全科学咨询委员会的主席口中听到的话。
And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this...
同时凯姆博士还这样表示...
And he's also one of these.
他也是这些人中的一员。
Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack is that the people who did it didn't mean us any harm.
好消息是，2011年的生物黑客并没有想伤害我们。
They're virologists. They believed they were advancing science.
他们是病毒学家。他们相信自己是走在了科技前沿。
The bad news is that technology does not freeze in place,
坏消息是，技术并不是静止不动的，
and over the next few decades, their feat will become trivially easy.
在接下来的几十年里，接触它们会变得非常简单。
In fact, it's already way easier,
实际上，现在相比以前已经简单多了，
because as we learned yesterday morning, just two years after they did their work,
昨天早上，也就是他们的实验完成刚好两年后，我们得知，
the CRISPR system was harnessed for genome editing.
基因编辑系统已经被用于基因组编辑。
This was a radical breakthrough that makes gene editing massively easier
这是一个重大突破，基因编辑变得更加简单，
so easy that CRISPR is now taught in high schools.
现在高校都开始教基因编辑了。
And this stuff is moving quicker than computing.
它发展的比计算机还要快。
That slow, stodgy white line up there? That's Moore's law.
看到这条慢慢移动的白线了吗？这是摩尔定律线。
That shows us how quickly computing is getting cheaper.
它告诉我们计算机降价的速度越来越快。
That steep, crazy-fun green line, that shows us how quickly genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
这条陡峭的绿线显示的是，基因序列降价的速度越来越快。
Now, gene editing and synthesis and sequencing, they're different disciplines, but they're tightly related.
基因编辑，生物合成还有生物序列都有不同的规则，但它们被紧密联系在一起。
And they're all moving in these headlong rates.
它们都急促地向前发展着。
And the keys to the kingdom are these tiny, tiny data files.
而打开生物王国的钥匙就是这些小的数据文件。
That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.
这是H5N1一小部分基因。
The whole thing can fit on just a few pages.
整个病毒可以在几页内写完。
And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this as soon as you get home. It's all over the internet, right?
别担心，你回家就可以在网上搜索到它。它的资料已经全部传上网了。
And the part that made it contagious could well fit on a single Post-it note.
而让它具有传染性的那部分基因短到可以写在一张便利贴上。
And once a genius makes a data file, any idiot can copy it, distribute it worldwide or print it.
一旦有个天才写出数据文件，任何一个傻瓜都可以复制它，在全世界传播或打印。
And I don't just mean print it on this, but soon enough, on this.
我说的打印不仅仅指打印在这上面，很快还可以打印在这上面。
So let's imagine a scenario. Let's say it's 2026, to pick an arbitrary year, and a brilliant virologist,
想象一个场景。假设2026年吧，随便选一年，有一个聪明的病毒学家，
hoping to advance science and better understand pandemics, designs a new bug.
为了推动技术进步，更好的理解瘟疫，制造了一个新的病菌。
It's as contagious as chicken pox, it's as deadly as Ebola,
它像水痘一样容易传染，像埃博拉一样致命，
and it incubates for months and months before causing an outbreak,
爆发前的潜伏期长达数月之久，
so the whole world can be infected before the first sign of trouble.
在第一个病例出现前全世界人都会被感染。
Then, her university gets hacked.
然后，她的大学网络被黑客攻击。
And of course, this is not science fiction.
当然这不是科幻小说。
In fact, just one recent US indictment documents the hacking of over 300 universities.
实际上，美国最近正好有个案子，起诉书中列出了超过300家被黑客攻击的大学。
So that file with the bug's genome on it spreads to the internet's dark corners.
于是携带着这个病毒的基因的文件就随之传播到了互联网最黑暗的角落。
And once a file is out there, it never comes back -- just ask anybody who runs a movie studio or a music label.
一旦文件流失，它将永远都找不回来了--问问电影或音乐制作公司的人就知道。

So now maybe in 2026, it would take a true genius like our virologist to make the actual living critter,
2026年可能需要一个像病毒学家一样聪明的人才能制作出这个活物，
but 15 years later, it may just take a DNA printer you can find at any high school.
但15年后，可能只需要一台在任何高校都可以找到的DNA打印机就可以。
And if not? Give it a couple of decades.
如果还是不行？那就再过几十年再看。
So, a quick aside: Remember this slide here? Turn your attention to these two words.
来看看这条线：记得这条线吗？注意这两个词。
If somebody tries this and is only 0.1 percent effective, eight million people die.
如果有人进行了尝试，而实验的0.1%成功了，会死8百万人。
That's 2,500 9/11s. Civilization would survive, but it would be permanently disfigured.
这就是2500次的911事件。文明还会存在，但是会被永远改写。
So this means we need to be concerned about anybody who has the faintest shot on goal, not just geniuses.
这就意味着我们应当留意所有那些有这种微弱想法的人，而不仅仅是那些天才。
So today, there's a tiny handful of geniuses who probably could make a doomsday bug
现在，有小部分的天才已经知道怎样制作这些病毒，
that's .1-percent effective and maybe even a little bit more.
哪怕只有0.1%的部分或略多一点的部分会生效。
They tend to be stable and successful and so not part of this group.
他们往往是稳定和成功的，所以不是这个群体的一部分。
So I guess I'm sorta kinda barely OK-ish with that.
所以我觉得没什么太大问题。
But what about after technology improves and diffuses and thousands of life science grad students are enabled?
但如果随着技术的进步，成千上万的学习生命科学的学生也掌握了这种能力呢？
Are every single one of them going to be perfectly stable?
他们中的每一个人都是很稳定的吗？
Or how about a few years after that, where every stress-ridden premed is fully enabled?
或者几年后，每个得了抑郁症的医学预科生都有了这种能力呢？
At some point in that time frame, these circles are going to intersect,
在某个时间点，这些圆圈会交汇，
because we're now starting to talk about hundreds of thousands of people throughout the world.
我们现在在讨论的是世界上成千上万的人。
And they recently included that guy who dressed up like the Joker and shot 12 people to death at a Batman premiere.
他们之中就包括那个穿上小丑的衣服，在蝙蝠侠的首映礼上枪杀12个市民的人。
That was a neuroscience PhD student with an NIH grant.
那个人是研究神经科学的博士，还曾获得过美国国家卫生研究院的拨款。
OK, plot twist: I think we can actually survive this one if we start focusing on it now.
话说回来，我觉得如果我们现在开始关注这件事，这些情况是可以避免的。
And I say this, having spent countless hours interviewing global leaders in synbio
我花了很长时间采访那些合成生物领域的全球性领导者，
and also researching their work for science podcasts I create.
也为了我的播客频道去研究了他们的工作内容。
I have come to fear their work, in case I haven't gotten that out there yet...
我想说我开始害怕他们的工作，我目前还无法理解...
but more than that, to revere its potential.
但更多的是，我尊重这份工作的前景。
This stuff will cure cancer, heal our environment and stop our cruel treatment of other creatures.
它可以帮助治疗癌症，改善我们的环境，阻止我们对其他生物的暴行。
So how do we get all this without, you know, annihilating ourselves?
那么我们怎样才能在不危及自身的前提下达成这些目的呢？
First thing: like it or not, synbio is here, so let's embrace the technology.
首先，无论你怎么想，合成生物技术已经出现，我们就应该拥抱这种技术。
If we do a tech ban, that would only hand the wheel to bad actors.
如果我们禁止它的使用，那就是让那些不守规矩的人掌舵。
Unlike nuclear programs, biology can be practiced invisibly.
生物科技不像核工程，它可以在别人看不到的地方进行。
Massive Soviet cheating on bioweapons treaties made that very clear, as does every illegal drug lab in the world.
苏联违反生化武器条约的行为让这一点已经非常明显，世界上那些非法的药品实验室也是。
Secondly, enlist the experts. Let's sign them up and make more of them.
第二，招募专家。把这方面的专家尽可能多的登记造册。
For every million and one bioengineers we have, at least a million of them are going to be on our side.
每一百万零一个生物工程师中，至少有一百万人会更愿意站在我们这边。
I mean, Al Capone would be on our side in this one.
在这件事上，艾尔·卡朋也会选择跟我们一样的立场。
The bar to being a good guy is just so low.
做好人的门槛如此之低。
And massive numerical advantages do matter, even when a single bad guy can inflict grievous harm,
在一个坏人就可以造成巨大损失的时候，人数的优势是很重要的，
because among many other things, they allow us to exploit the hell out of this:
因为在影响结果的众多因素中，我们可以把这种优势放到最大，
we have years and hopefully decades to prepare and prevent.
我们有数年甚至数十年的时间来做准备和研究预防措施。
The first person to try something awful -- and there will be somebody -- may not even be born yet.
第一个想做坏事的人--一定会有这么一个人--可能现在还没出生呢。
Next, this needs to be an effort that spans society, and all of you need to be a part of it,
然后，我们需要全社会一起努力，你所要做的就是成为我们的一员，
because we cannot ask a tiny group of experts to be responsible for both containing and exploiting synthetic biology,
因为我们不可能让一小组科学家既负责研发合成生物技术，又负责防止推广，
because we already tried that with the financial system,
因为我们已经在金融体系中尝试过了，
and our stewards became massively corrupted as they figured out how they could cut corners,
我们的公职人员大量腐败，因为他们知道如何中饱私囊，
inflict massive, massive risks on the rest of us and privatize the gains,
把风险转移给我们其他人，并把收入私有化，
becoming repulsively wealthy while they stuck us with the $22 trillion bill.
从而使得他们自己变得异常富有，而却让我们背负着22万亿美元的账单。
And more recently... Are you the ones who have gotten the thank-you letters? I'm still waiting for mine.
最近...你们收到感谢信了吗？我还在等我的。
I just figured they were too busy to be grateful.
我刚想起他们应该是太忙了，忙到没时间感谢我。
And much more recently, online privacy started looming as a huge issue, and we basically outsourced it.
最近，我们的在互联网上的隐私问题又成了一件大事，我们的信息被外包。
And once again: privatized gains, socialized losses.
再一次，个人获利，社会遭殃。
Is anybody else sick of this pattern?
有没有人厌倦这种模式的？
So we need a more inclusive way to safeguard our prosperity, our privacy and soon, our lives.
所以我们需要一个更加包容的方式来保护我们的财产、隐私，很快还要保护我们的生命。
So how do we do all of this?
那么我们应该怎么做呢？
Well, when bodies fight pathogens, they use ingenious immune systems, which are very complex and multilayered.
当我们的身体跟病原体搏斗时，进行战斗的是免疫系统，这个系统十分复杂，有很多层次。
Why don't we build one of these for the whole damn ecosystem?
为什么我们不给生态系统建一个这样的免疫系统呢？
There's a year of TED Talks that could be given on this first critical layer.
要想建起第一层，我们有一年份的TED演讲可以参考。
So these are just a couple of many great ideas that are out there.
这只是一些比较好的建议。
Some R and D muscle could take the very primitive pathogen sensors that we currently have
研发人员可以用我们现有的原始病原体探测器，
and put them on a very steep price performance curve
设定其性价比曲线非常陡峭，
that would quickly become ingenious and networked and gradually as widespread as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
这将很快变得巧妙和网络化，让它逐渐像烟雾感应器和智能手机一样普及。
On a very related note: vaccines have all kinds of problems when it comes to manufacturing and distribution,
值得注意的是：疫苗制作完成发放的时候会遇到很多问题，
and once they're made, they can't adapt to new threats or mutations.
因为一旦它们被研发完成，面对变异的病毒和新的威胁，它们无能为力。
We need an agile biomanufacturing base extending into every single pharmacy and maybe even our homes.
我们需要一个灵活的生物研制平台，它应该跟每一个药房甚至我们的住所相连。
Printer technology for vaccines and medicines is within reach if we prioritize it.
如果我们优先考虑的话，疫苗打印技术和药品应该在我们触手可及的地方。
Next, mental health. Many people who commit suicidal mass murder suffer from crippling, treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
下一个，精神健康。很多自杀的人苦于残疾、难治性抑郁症和创伤后应激障碍的折磨。
We need noble researchers like Rick Doblin working on this,
我们就需要像瑞克·多布林这样品德高尚的研究人员来解决这些问题，
but we also need the selfish jerks who are way more numerous
还需要那些数量多得多的自私自利的混蛋
to appreciate the fact that acute suffering will soon endanger all of us, not just those afflicted.
意识到苦痛会很快降临到我们所有人身上，受害者不仅仅是那些病患。
Those jerks will then join us and Al Capone in fighting this condition.
这样，那些混蛋就会和我们以及艾尔·卡彭一起去应对这些情况。
Third, each and every one of us can be and should be a white blood cell in this immune system.
第三，我们每一个人都可以也应该成为这个免疫系统的一颗白细胞。
Suicidal mass murderers can be despicable, yes, but they're also terribly broken and sad people,
自杀式袭击者是可鄙的，没错，但他们同时也是心碎的可怜人，
and those of us who aren't need to do what we can to make sure nobody goes unloved.
我们这些没有这些问题的人应该尽自己所能去保证每个人都是被爱的。
Next, we need to make fighting these dangers core to the discipline of synthetic biology.
接下来，我们应该把对抗这些危险作为合成生物技术事业的核心。
There are companies out there that at least claim they let their engineers spend 20 percent of their time doing whatever they want.
有一些公司宣称会允许他们的工程师花20%的时间做自己的事。
What if those who hire bioengineers and become them give 20 percent of their time to building defenses for the common good?
如果他们雇佣了这些生物工程师，并且给他们20%的时间为全人类的共同事业建起一道防线呢？
Not a bad idea, right?
这是个不错的主意，不是吗？
Then, finally: this won't be any fun.
最后 我要说的这件事一点也不好玩。
But we need to let our minds go to some very, very dark places, and thank you for letting me take you there this evening.
我们需要让自己进入到非常非常黑暗的地方，并且感谢你们让我在今晚把你们带到那里。
We survived the Cold War because every one of us understood and respected the danger,
我们能从冷战中生存下来，是因为我们理解危机、尊重危机，
in part, because we had spent decades telling ourselves terrifying ghost stories with names like "Dr. Strangelove" and "War Games."
还有部分原因是，我们几十年里一直给自己讲述名字叫做“奇爱博士”和“模拟战争”这样可怕的故事。
This is no time to remain calm.
我们没有时间再保持冷静了。
This is one of those rare times when it's incredibly productive to freak the hell out...
这是我们生命中为数不多的需要通过恐吓自己来保证出成果的时刻...
to come up with some ghost stories and use our fear as fuel to fight this danger.
给自己讲恐怖故事，用恐惧做武器去对抗这种危险。
Because, all these terrible scenarios I've painted -- they are not destiny. They're optional.
因为我前面描述的所有恐怖场景并不是注定要降临的，我们还有选择权。
The danger is still kind of distant. And that means it will only befall us if we allow it to.
危险离我们还有一段距离。如果它们最终降临，那是因为我们的允许。
Let's not. Thank you very much for listening.
让我们不要允许。感谢大家的聆听。