Guys, we have an issue.
各位，我们遇到问题了。
Growth is fading away, and it's a big deal.
经济增长逐渐放缓，这可是个大问题。
Our global economy stops growing. And it's not new.
全球经济停止增长。这已经不是什么新闻了。
Growth has actually declined for the last 50 years.
事实上，过去50年来增速一直在逐渐放缓。
If we continue like this, we need to learn how to live in a world with no growth in the next decade.
如果这一态势延续下去，我们就必须学习如何在下一个十年，在无经济增长的情况下生存。
This is scary because when the economy doesn't grow, our children don't get better lives.
这听起来很恐怖，因为一旦经济发展停滞，我们的孩子就无法拥有更好的生活。
What's even scarier is that when the pie does not grow, each of us get a smaller piece.
更加可怕的是，一旦馅饼不再变大，每个人分到的份额就会更小。
We're then ready to fight for a bigger one.
我们要随时备战以争取更大的馅饼。
This creates tensions and serious conflicts. Growth matters a lot.
形势就会紧张，出现严重的冲突。经济增长事关重大。
If we look at the history of growth, times of big growth have always been fueled by big manufacturing revolutions.
如果我们回顾经济增长史，就会发现高速增长往往都由大型工业革命带动。
It happened three times, every 50-60 years.
这在历史上一共发生了三次，每50到60年一次。
The steam engine in the middle of the 19th century, the mass-production model in the beginning of the 20th century -- thanks, Mr. Ford.
它们分别是：19世纪中叶的蒸汽机，20世纪早期的大规模生产模型--这要感谢福特先生。
And the first automation wave in the 1970s.
还有就是20世纪70年代的第一次自动化浪潮。
Why did these manufacturing revolutions create huge growth in our economies?
为什么这些工业革命会引发经济高速增长呢？
Because they have injected huge productivity improvement.
因为他们显著提高了生产效率。
It's rather simple: in order to grow, you need to be producing more, putting more into our economy.
这其实很简单：为了实现增长，人们需要生产更多的产品，为我们的经济投入更多的资源。
This means either more labor or more capital or more productivity.
这就意味着需要更多劳动力，更多资本或更高的生产力。
Each time, productivity has been the growth lever.
每次，生产力都是经济增长的杠杆因素。
I'm here today to tell you that we are on the verge of another huge change,
我今天想要告诉各位，我们即将经历另一次剧变，
and that this change, surprisingly enough, is going to come from manufacturing, again.
这次改变，出乎意料的是，也再次会从制造业开始。
It will get us out of our growth slump and it will change radically the way globalization has been shaped over the last decade.
它将使我们走出经济的萧条期，会从根本上改变过去十年全球化塑造的状况。
I'm here to tell you about the amazing fourth manufacturing revolution that is currently underway.
现在我要告诉大家，第四次工业革命已经在发生了。
It's not as if we've done nothing with manufacturing since the last revolution.
这并不意味着自上次工业革命以来我们没有任何进步。
Actually, we've made some pretty lame attempts to try to revitalize it.
事实上，我们做了几次努力，试图重振工业经济。
But none of them have been the big overhaul we really need to get us growing again.
但成效甚微，不足以让经济恢复增长。
For example, we've tried to relocate our factories offshore in order to reduce cost and take advantage of cheap labor.
比如说，我们曾试图将工厂迁至海外，利用当地廉价劳动力，从而降低成本。
Not only did this not inspire productivity, but it only saved money for a short period of time, because cheap labor didn't stay cheap for long.
但这不仅没有提高生产力，还只是在短期内节省了成本，因为廉价劳动力不会永远廉价。
Then, we've tried to make our factories larger and we specialized them by product.
之后，我们还试图把工厂做大，对每种产品进行专门化生产。
The idea was that we can make a lot of one product and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
这个想法是基于如果我们可以只做一种产品，囤积起来以根据需求售卖。
This did help productivity for a while.
这个做法确实在一段时间内提高了生产力。
But it introduced a lot of rigidities in our supply chain. Let's take fashion retail.
但它让我们的供应链非常死板。让我们以服饰时尚零售业为例。
Traditional clothing companies have built offshore, global, rigid supply chains.
传统的服装企业建立了位于海外的、全球化的、僵化的供应链。
When fast-fashion competitors like Zara started replenishing their stocks faster from two collections a year to one collection a month,
当像Zara等“快速时尚”竞争者加快存货周转率，从一年两个时装系列提高到一个月一个时装系列，
none of them have been able to keep up with the pace. Most of them are in great difficulties today.
传统的服装企业就都跟不上其节奏了。它们中的绝大多数如今都陷入了危机。
Yet, with all of their shortcomings, those are the factories we know today.
但是，尽管有这些缺点，这些企业都依然很知名。
When you open the doors, they look the same as they did 50 years ago.
当你打开门出去看看时，你会发现这些工厂和50年前一模一样。
We've just changed the location, the size, the way they operate.
我们仅仅变换了工厂的位置、大小和运作方式。
Can you name anything else that looks the same as it did 50 years ago? It's crazy.
你们还能列举出任何五十年没有改变的例子吗？这太难以置信了。
We've made all the tweaks to the model that we could, and now we hit its limits.
我们已尽我们所能对该模型进行调整，但目前已经达到了极限。
After all of our attempts to fix the manufacturing model failed, we thought growth could come from elsewhere.
在对修补工业模型做出的全部尝试都失败后，我们猜测经济增长或许可以来自其他领域。
We turned to the tech sector -- there's been quite a lot of innovations there.
我们转向科技行业--那里有相当多的创新活动。
Just to name one: the Internet. We hoped it could produce growth. And indeed, it changed our lives.
举一个例子：因特网。我们希望网络能够带来增长。事实上，它改变了我们的生活。
It made big waves in the media, the service, the entertainment spaces. But it hasn't done much for productivity.
它对传媒业、服务业和娱乐产业都带来了极大影响。但是它并未对生产力带来多大改变。
Actually, what's surprising is that productivity is on the decline despite all of those innovation efforts.
实际上，令人惊讶的是，尽管有这么多的创新的尝试，生产力却一直在下降。
Imagine that -- sitting at work, scrolling through Facebook, watching videos on YouTube has made us less productive. Weird.
想象一下--上班的时候，刷刷Facebook，在YouTube上看看视频，这都让我们的生产效率降低了。很奇怪吧。
This is why we are not growing.
这就是为什么经济未能增长。
We failed at reinventing the manufacturing space, and large technological innovations have played away from it.
我们未能重新创造工业生产活动，与此同时大型技术创新却与之相背。
But what if we could combine those forces?
但如果我们把这些结合起来会发生什么？
What if the existing manufacturing and large technological innovation came together to create the next big manufacturing reinvention.
将当下的制造业与大型技术创新结合起来，也许会引发下一次大型工业革命。
Bingo! This is the fourth manufacturing revolution, and it's happening right now.
没错！这就是第四次工业革命，而它此时此刻正在发生。
Major technologies are entering the manufacturing space, big time.
重大技术革新正在进入制造业领域，这是个重大时刻。
They will boost industrial productivity by more than a third.
它将会使生产力提高超过三分之一。
This is massive, and it will do a lot in creating growth. Let me tell you about some of them.
这个巨大的改变，将引发经济的增长。让我来向各位举几个例子。
Have you already met advanced manufacturing robots?
不知在座各位知不知道高级工业机器人？
They are the size of humans, they actually collaborate with them, and they can be programmed in order to perform complex, non-repetitive tasks.
它们和人类大小相仿，可以和人类合作，可以通过设定好的程序来执行复杂的、非重复性的任务。
Today in our factories, only 8 percent of the tasks are automated.
当今，在我们的工厂里，只有百分之八的任务是自动化的。
The less complex, the more repetitive ones. It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
尤其是那些不是很复杂，且重复性更强的任务。在未来十年内这一数字会增长到百分之二十五。
It means that by 2025, advanced robots will complement workers to be, together, 20 percent more productive,
这意味着到2025年，高级机器人将与工人合作，将生产率将提升20%，
to manufacture 20 percent more outputs, to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
产出量也将提升20%，从而实现20%的经济增长。

This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea. These robots are working for us right now.
这并不是对未来的幻想。这些机器人现在就在为我们工作。
Last year in the US, they helped Amazon prepare and ship all the products required for Cyber Monday, the annual peak of online retail.
去年在美国，机器人帮助亚马逊发货，以应对网络星期一带来的年度线上零售消费高峰。
Last year in the US, it was the biggest online shopping day of the year and of history.
那是去年在美国的有史以来最大的线上购物日。
Consumers spent 3 billion dollars on electronics that day. That's real economic growth.
消费者那天在网络上共支出30亿美元。那是实实在在的经济增长。
Then there's additive manufacturing, 3D printing.
此外，还有积层制造，即3D打印技术。
3D printing has already improved plastic manufacturing and it's now making its way through metal.
3D打印已经提升了塑料制造行业。目前它正向钢铁行业进发。
Those are not small industries. Plastic and metals represent 25 percent of global manufacturing production.
它们可不是小型行业。塑料和钢铁占全球制造业生产的25%。
Let's take a real example. In the aerospace industry, fuel nozzles are some of the most complex parts to manufacture, for one reason:
让我们看一个具体例子。在航空航天产业，燃油喷嘴是最难生产的部件之一，就因为一个原因：
they are made up of 20 different parts that need to be separately produced and then painstakingly assembled.
它由20种不同部件组成，并且它们需要独立生产，组装过程也极其复杂。
Aerospace companies are now using 3D printing, which allows them to turn those 20 different parts into just one.
航空公司现在正在采用3D打印技术，这类技术可以让它们从需要生产20种不同部件，变为只生产一种。
The results? 40 percent more productivity, 40 percent more output produced, 40 percent more growth for this specific industry.
结果呢？生产力提高了百分之四十，产量提高了百分之四十，经济增长加快了百分之四十，仅仅就在这一特定的领域。
But actually, the most exciting part of this new manufacturing revolution goes much beyond productivity.
但事实上，这次新工业革命最激动人心的地方远不止生产率的提高。
It's about producing better, smarter products. It's about scale customization.
还有生产质量更优、更为精细的产品，还有批量定制。
Imagine a world where you can buy the exact products you want with the functionalities you need, with the design you want,
想象一下，你可以买到符合你所有需求的产品，具备你需要的所有功能，有你想要的设计，
with the same cost and lead time as a product that's been mass produced, like your car, or your clothes or your cell phone.
但却和大规模生产出的产品在价位与交付时间上相差无几，你可以买到你所定制的车、衣服，甚至是手机。
The new manufacturing revolution makes it possible.
这次新工业革命让这一切变得可能。
Advanced robots can be programmed in order to perform any product configuration without any setup time or ramp up.
我们可以通过对高级机器人编程，使其无须安装时间、无须缓冲，便可以完成任何产品装配。
3D printers instantaneously produce any customized design.
3D打印机可以即刻生产任何定做的设计品。
We are now able to produce a batch of one product, your product, at the same cost and lead time as a batch of many.
现如今我们可以用大批量生产所需同样的成本及订货交付时间，来生产一个仅属于你的产品。
Those are only a few examples of the manufacturing revolution at play.
这些仅仅是当下工业革命的几个例子。
Not only will manufacturing become more productive, it will also become more flexible,
不仅生产率更高，同时制造业还变得更具弹性，
and those were exactly the elements of growth that we are missing.
而这些恰恰是我们缺少的增长要素。
But actually, there are even some bigger implications for all of us when manufacturing will find its way back into the limelight.
但实际上，制造业重回聚光灯下对我们所有人而言还有更深层次的意义。
It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
它会带来巨大的宏观经济转变。
First, our factories will be relocated into our home markets.
首先，我们的工厂将会迁回国内市场。
In the world of scale customization, consumer proximity is the new norm.
在大规模订制的情况下，亲近客户将会变成新的模式。
Then, our factories will be smaller, agile. Scale does not matter anymore, flexibility does.
而且，我们的工厂会变得更小、更灵活。批量化不再重要，弹性化取而代之。
They will be operating on a multi-product, made-to-order basis. The change will be drastic.
工厂将会基于多种类产品及订制的基础上生产。这将是个剧变。
Globalization will enter a new era.
全球化将进入一个新纪元。
The East-to-West trade flows will be replaced by regional trade flows. East for East, West for West.
由东至西的贸易流动将会被区域化贸易往来取缔。东部供给东部，西部供给西部。
When you think about that, the old model was pretty much insane.
再回首看看过去的生产模式，就会发现它有多么不切实际。
Piling up stocks, making products travel the whole world before they reach their end consumers.
囤积存货，在产品达到客户手上之前，让它们经历一次世界旅行。
The new model, producing just next to the consumer market, will be much cleaner, much better for our environment.
这种在客户市场附近生产销售的新生产模式，将会更为清洁，对环境更好。
In mature economies, manufacturing will be back home, creating more employment, more productivity and more growth. Good news, isn't it?
在成熟经济体中，制造业将回归本国，这将创造更多就业，提高生产率并且推动经济发展。好消息，不是吗？
But here's the thing with growth -- it does not come automatically.
但问题在于--经济发展并不是自然而然就会发生的。
Mature economies will have to seize it. We'll have to massively re-train our workforce.
成熟经济体需要抓住经济发展机遇。我们必须对劳动力进行大规模的再培训。
In most countries, like in my country, France, we've told our children that manufacturing had no future.
在绝大多数国家，比如我的祖国，法国，我们曾经告诉孩子们：制造业是没有前途的。
That it was something happening far away. We need to reverse that and teach manufacturing again at university.
而且很早以前就是这样了。我们必须改变这一观点，在大学里重新教授制造业课程。
Only the countries that will boldly transform will be able to seize this growth.
只有大胆变革的国家，才能够抓住这次经济发展机会。
It's also a chance for developing economies. Of course China and other emerging economies won't be the factory of the world anymore.
这对发展中国家而言也是一个机遇。诚然，中国和其他发展中国家不再会是世界工厂。
Actually, it was not a sustainable model in the long term, as those countries are becoming richer.
实际上，随着这些国家变得更为富有，作为世界工厂长期来看也不是一个可持续发展方式。
Last year, it was already as expensive to produce in Brazil as to produce in France.
去年，巴西的生产成本已经与法国持平。
By 2018, manufacturing costs in China will be on par with the US.
到2018年，中国的生产成本也将追上美国。
The new manufacturing revolution will accelerate the transition of those emerging economies towards a model driven by domestic consumption.
这次全新的工业革命，将会推动新兴经济体转变为以国内消费主导的发展模型。
And this is good, because this is where growth will be created.
这是个好消息，因为这将是未来经济增长的源泉。
In the next five years, the next billion consumers in China will inject more growth in our economies than the top five European markets together.
未来五年，中国数十亿消费者将会为我们的经济发展注入更多动力，比欧洲内五大市场加起来还要多。
This fourth manufacturing revolution is a chance for all of us.
对我们所有人而言，第四次工业革命都是一次机遇。
If we play it right, we'll see sustainable growth in all of our economies.
如果我们正确运用它，我们将会看到我们的经济持续发展。
This means more wealth distributed to all of us and a better future for our children. Thank you.
这意味着分给我们所有人的财富会增加，我们的孩子们也将拥有一个更好的未来。感谢各位！