Production posers

生产难题

Port Talbot’s predicament has led to suggestions that the future of steel in developed countries lies outside the heavy end of raw iron and steelmaking. In the UK, Liberty House, a commodities trading group, has reopened a handful of mills that roll cheaper imported steel. But many industry figures say that severing the link with primary metal production makes it difficult to develop new grades.

英国塔尔伯特港钢厂的困境导致一些人提议，发达国家钢铁业的未来不在于把生铁熔炼成钢的重头一端。在英国，大宗商品交易集团Liberty House重新启动了几家轧制更便宜进口钢铁的工厂。但许多业内人物表示，脱离了基础钢铁生产，就难以发展新的产品品级。

Yet behind attempts by steelmakers to weather the turbulence, there is an uncomfortable truth. Producers have struggled to improve margins, whether through developing new grades and alloys or internal cost savings, with gains often passed on to customers.

然而，在钢铁制造商驾驭动荡的努力背后，有一个令人不爽的现实，那就是企业很难提高利润率——不管是通过开发新的品级和合金，还是通过节省内部成本，效益往往被客户享受。

“Steel has invested to help customers without increasing the margin. It’s done all the R&D, but automotive customers are so powerful,” says Mr Beauman.

“钢铁业的投资帮助了客户，却没能提高利润率。钢铁业进行了所有的研发，但汽车业客户太强大了，”行业顾问博曼说。

China’s pivotal influence will determine whether the storm abates or worsens. For the first time, Beijing included tackling overcapacity in its latest five-year plan, and has set targets to cut 100m-150m tonnes of capacity in that period, which it says will require 500,000 steelworker lay-offs. However, analysts debate whether the scale and pace of retrenchment is enough.

中国举足轻重的影响力将决定这股风暴是会减弱还是会恶化。北京方面首次将应对产能过剩纳入其最新的五年规划，设立了在此期间削减1亿到1.5亿吨产能的目标，并表示这可能会使50万中国钢铁工人下岗。然而，分析师们对这种缩减的规模和速度是否足够意见分歧。

In a measure of the challenge, Chinese steel mills have recently ramped up production to take advantage of a price rise caused by a combination of a recovering housing market and an influx of speculative retail investors into commodity futures exchanges.

突显挑战巨大的一个迹象是，中国的钢厂最近提高了产量，以利用房市回暖和大批投机散户涌入大宗商品期货交易所的双重影响带来的价格上升。

While Beijing has made clear that it will not remove tax incentives for exports, it is receiving some forceful encouragement to desist. The opening shots have been fired in a brewing steel trade war, with the US moving towards tariffs of more than 500 per cent on dumped and subsidised products. The EU is following suit, though less aggressively, and India and South Africa have also erected barriers. This is likely to deliver a boon to producers in countries reliant on imports, like the US, or where demand is growing, such as in India. The risk is that exports are diverted to regions with less robust trade policies.

尽管北京方面明确表示不会取消面向出口的税收优惠政策，但它正遭受一些强大的阻力。一场酝酿中的钢铁贸易战扑面而来，美国正朝着对倾销和补贴产品征收超过500%的关税前进。欧盟(EU)也在效仿，尽管没那么咄咄逼人，而印度和南非也纷纷竖起贸易壁垒。这可能对依赖进口的国家（如美国）或者需求正在增长的国家（如印度）的生产者有利。风险是出口会被转向贸易政策不那么强硬的地区。

For the 4,000 Port Talbot workers still uncertain about their jobs, a ray of light is piercing the gloom. Steel prices have risen in recent months and losses that once touched ￡1m a day have narrowed. Their fate could foretell that of rivals in similar positions.

对4000名依然不确定自己是否会丢掉工作的塔尔伯特港钢厂工人来说，有一束曙光穿透了阴霾。近几个月钢价上涨，一度达到每天100万英镑的亏损在收窄。他们的命运可能预示处于类似境地的竞争对手的命运。

Mini-mills

延伸阅读：小钢厂

As steelmakers worldwide rolled out dismal 2015 results, Nucor, the US’s biggest producer by volumes, bucked the trend. While net earnings fell nearly 40 per cent, the company remained in the black, reporting a profit of $496m. The figures contrasted with $1.5bn net loss for US Steel, the next biggest producer.

2015年，世界各地的钢铁生产商交出了惨淡的成绩单，按产量计的美国最大钢铁生产商纽柯却逆势而行。尽管净利润下降了近40%，但该公司依然实现了盈利，报告利润为4.96亿美元。这个数字和紧随其后的第二大生产商美国钢铁15亿美元的净亏损形成了对比。

The company’s resilience has highlighted the advantages that Nucor and other operators of electric arc furnaces — also known as “mini-mills” — enjoy compared with traditional operators of integrated steel mills. EAFs can be turned on or off relatively easily according to demand for steel, while integrated mills’ blast furnaces need to be kept going. Electric furnaces melt down scrap steel, rather than using iron ore. Nucor employees’ pay also depends heavily on the amount of steel they produce, meaning that the company’s wage bill shrinks and grows according to demand, without the need to lay off staff.

这家公司的韧性凸显出纽柯和其他利用电弧炉生产的钢厂（也被称为“小钢厂”）相比于传统综合钢厂所享有的优势。电弧炉可以根据对钢铁的需求相对容易地启动或者关闭，而综合钢厂的高炉需要保持运转。电弧炉熔化废钢，而不是使用铁矿石。同时，纽柯雇员的工资在很大程度上取决于产量，这意味着这家公司无需裁员就能实现工资支出根据需求收缩或者增长。

Jim Frias, Nucor’s chief financial officer, says the company has a “better business model” than other US-based steelmakers.

纽柯首席财务官吉姆•弗里亚斯(Jim Frias)表示，这家公司拥有比美国其他钢铁生产商“更好的商业模式”。

“It begins with being a lower-cost producer with a highly flexible production capability that we always use to respond to market conditions more quickly than our competitors,” Mr Frias says. “Our employees are incentivised to make the most steel they can possibly make,” he adds.

“本公司从一家拥有高度灵活的生产能力、成本更低廉的生产商起步，比起我们的竞争对手，我们总是运用这种能力，更快地应对市场情况，”弗里亚斯说。“我们的雇员受到激励，尽他们所能地最大化产量，”他补充道。

Yet it is not clear that Nucor’s approach can be easily replicated. Charles Bradford, a steel analyst, says Nucor’s US operations are dependent on cheap electricity supplies, which are not available in many parts of Europe. The company also depends on a ready supply of scrap steel, which is not yet available in still-developing China.

然而，还不清楚纽柯的策略能否被容易地复制。钢铁业分析师查尔斯•布拉德福德(Charles Bradford)表示，纽柯的美国工厂依赖便宜的电力供应，这在欧洲很多地区都不可行。这家公司还依赖现成的废钢供应，这对依然属于发展中国家的中国来说也无法实现。