China’s central bank set its daily currency “fix” at the lowest level in five years, tracking a weaker market price as the dollar rally took its toll on the renminbi.

中国央行将每日人民币汇率中间价定在五年来的最低水平，以追踪较为疲软的市场汇率。目前，美元的反弹正令人民币汇率承压。

The greenback has gained against a range of global currencies since minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting raised the likelihood of an interest rate rise as early as June or July.

由于美联储(Fed)近期会议的纪要内容加大了最早于6月或7月加息的可能性，美元相对一系列全球货币出现升值。

On Wednesday the People’s Bank of China set the fix 0.34 per cent below the previous day’s, in line with its commitment in August to set guidance based on the previous day’s spot close and the dollar’s moves against other global currencies.

周三，中国央行将当日人民币汇率中间价定在比前一日低0.34%的水平，此举符合该行去年8月作出的承诺。该行当时承诺，要依据前一日即期汇率收盘价和美元相对其他全球货币的走势来设定人民币汇率中间价。

After touching its weakest level in nearly four months on Wednesday morning, the onshore spot rate closed essentially flat. Traders said they suspected that the central bank had intervened modestly to prevent a sharp fall in the spot rate.

在周三上午触及将近四个月来的低点后，在岸人民币即期汇率收盘价与开盘价基本持平。交易员们表示，他们怀疑中国央行已适度出手干预，以防止人民币即期汇率大幅下跌。

Foreign investors have struggled to interpret China's exchange rate policy since last August, when the central bank changed the way it sets it daily guidance for the currency to track market prices rather than dictate them.

去年8月，中国央行改变了人民币汇率中间价设定方式，以追踪市场走势而不是指挥市场。自那以来，如何解读中国的汇率政策一直令外国投资者大伤脑筋。

Local market participants broadly agree the renminbi is significantly more market-driven now than it was before the change. Shifting expectations about the timing of the next Fed interest-rate rise — rather than PBoC policy — are now the main force buffeting the renminbi, traders say.

当地的市场参与者普遍认同一点：与那次汇改前相比，如今人民币汇率受市场影响的程度要大得多。交易员们表示，如今左右人民币汇率的，是人们不断改变的、对美联储(Fed)加息时点的预期，而不是中国央行的政策。

“The PBoC’s FX reserves have been stable and exchange rate depreciation expectations have ebbed. But the yuan’s twin outflows of foreign investors unwinding carry trades and local firms paying FX debts have continued,” Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, senior market strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore, wrote on Wednesday. “Both are now set to flare up again as the Fed gets ready to hike rates this summer.”

周三，苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)驻新加坡高级市场策略师曼苏尔•莫希-乌丁(Mansoor Mohi-Uddin)写道：“近来中国央行的外汇储备很稳定，人民币贬值预期也已消退。不过，境外投资者退出套息交易以及国内企业偿付外币债务导致的两股资金外流仍在继续。随着美联储准备好在今年夏天加息，这两股资金外流将再次提速。”

Mr Mohi-Uddin expects the the yuan to fall to 6.80 in the coming months and believes it may reach 7.00 if the Fed hikes rates times two or three times in 2016.

莫希-乌丁预计，今后几个月人民币汇率会跌至1美元兑换6.80元人民币，如果美联储在2016年加息两到三次的话，人民币汇率或许会跌至1美元兑7.00元人民币。