Donald Trump wants to slap punitive tariffs on China. Hillary Clinton opposes the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership she once hailed as a gold standard for a new generation of free trade deals. Republicans are embracing Democrat demands for “fair” trade. The US, the architect of the open global system, is turning inwards.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)想对中国征收惩罚性关税。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)反对12个国家缔结的《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)。她曾对TPP表示欢迎，称之为新一代自由贸易协议的典范。共和党人开始支持民主党人对于“公平”贸易的要求。一手设计了全球开放体系的美国，如今开始自我封闭。

The rest of the world should sit up. This is about more than the raw political emotions stirred by a US presidential race. The World Trade Organisation’s failed Doha Round saw the end of the multilateral trade liberalisation that gave us the globalised economy. The failure of the TPP would read the rites over the big plurilateral deals that promised an alternative. Free trade has been a powerful source of prosperity. It has lost political legitimacy. And not only in the US: European populists of left and right share the Trumpian disposition to throw up the barricades.

世界其他地区应感到吃惊。这不只是反映出美国总统大选激起的不加掩饰的政治情绪。世界贸易组织(WTO)多哈回合谈判失败，表明给我们带来全球化经济的多边(multilateral)贸易自由化的终结。TPP的失败将为有望给世界另一个选项的大型诸边(plurilateral)协议宣读悼词。自由贸易曾一直是促进繁荣的强大动力，但如今已失去了政治上的合法性。这并不仅仅表现在美国：欧洲左右两翼的民粹主义者都像特朗普一样想要竖起屏障。

Optimists hope the protectionist turn in the US is cyclical. Things will get back to normal once the cacophony of the presidential contest subsides. Freed from the primary challenge of Bernie Sanders, Mrs Clinton, the most likely successor to President Barack Obama, will find a way to change her mind again. The TPP could yet be smuggled through Congress during the lame-duck interlude after November’s elections. Such is the line from Mr Obama’s White House and from a diminishing band of Republicans true to their free trade heritage.

乐观者希望，美国的保护主义新倾向是阶段性的。一旦总统竞选中刺耳的杂声消散，局面将会回归常态。一旦消除了主要对手伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的挑战，最有可能接替现任总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)上台的希拉里将有办法改变自己的观点。在11月选举之后短暂的“跛脚鸭”时期，TPP仍有可能被国会悄悄通过。奥巴马政府和共和党内坚守该党自由贸易传统的越来越少的一部分人就是这样说的。

All the evidence points the other way. Globalisation has gone out of fashion. Shrewd Washington observers have concluded that, as one puts it, “ there is not a chance in hell” of the next president or the next Congress — of whatever colour — backing the TPP. As for the mooted, and now being negotiated, Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) designed to integrate the US and European economies, dream on.

所有证据都显示不是这样。全球化已过时了。正如有人所指出，聪明的华盛顿观察人士得出结论，下一位总统或下一届国会——无论属于哪个党派——都“根本没有可能”支持TPP。至于拟议的、目前正在协商中的旨在融合美欧经济的《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》(TTIP)——愿意的话就继续做美梦吧。

Mr Trump has struck a powerful chord among his core constituency in blaming foreigners for America’s economic ills. The backlash against free trade, though, runs deeper than cheap populism. The middle classes have seen scant evidence of the gains once promised for past deals. Republicans, fearful that they have already lost the presidency, do not want to risk handing Congress to fair-trade Democrats.

特朗普把美国的经济弊病归咎于外国人，这在他的核心选民阵营中引起了强烈共鸣。不过，对于自由贸易的抵制，有比廉价的民粹主义更为深层次的原因。中产阶层看到，美国政府过去达成一些协议时所承诺的好处，基本没有落实。担心已然无望获得总统职位的共和党人，不想冒险让国会落入主张公平贸易的民主党人之手。

Some problems are specific to the TPP. The prospective wins for the US are heavily tilted towards technology businesses on the west coast. Manufacturing America thinks it secures little in the way of better access to Asian markets and complains that the deal leaves US companies vulnerable to currency manipulation by overseas competitors.

有些问题是TPP所特有的。美国有望从TPP中获得的好处，很多都将属于西海岸的科技企业。制造企业则认为，TPP并没有为它们更容易进入亚洲市场创造多少条件，并抱怨称，TPP导致美国企业面对海外竞争对手的汇率操纵非常弱势。

Many more Americans than would ever gift their votes to Mr Trump question whether they get anything out of trade deals. Free trade has always created losers, but now they seem to outnumber the winners. There is nothing populist about noticing that globalisation has seen the top 1 per cent grab an ever-larger share of national wealth.

除了愿意把选票投给特朗普的美国人以外，还有多得多的美国人对自己是否能从贸易协议中获得任何好处表示怀疑。自由贸易向来会造就输家，但如今，输家人数似乎超过了赢家。注意到最富有的那1%的人攫取国民财富的比例越来越高，这算不上民粹主义。

The nature of free trade deals has changed. They used to be about tariffs. Now they focus on regulatory standards and norms, intellectual property rights, data privacy and investment protection. These are issues that cut deep across national political and cultural preferences. Lowering import duties is one thing; persuading voters to relax the rules on data protection or accept new rules on food safely is another.

自由贸易协议的性质已发生了改变。过去，它们是为了降低关税。如今，自由贸易协议关注的是监管标准与规范、知识产权、数据隐私和投资保护。这些问题都深深地触动全民的政治与文化偏好。降低进口关税是一回事；说服选民放松数据保护规则、或者接受食品安全新规，是另一回事。

The geopolitical calculus has also shifted. For the world’s advanced democracies, postwar trade liberalisation was self-evidently win-win. Sure, it was self-interested on the part of the US, but it also served a wider good. Trade deals with Europe and America’s Asian allies at once promoted growth in those regions, provided markets for US industry and strengthened the fight against Soviet communism. China’s entry into the WTO in 2001 changed things. Beijing has become the biggest beneficiary of the open trading system.

地缘政治考量也发生了变化。对于世界的发达民主国家而言，战后的贸易自由化是不言而喻的双赢。没错，贸易自由化符合美国的自身利益，但它也造福整个世界。与欧洲和美国的亚洲盟友达成的贸易协议，立即推动了那些地区的增长，为美国的工业提供了市场，并为对抗苏联社会主义的斗争增添了力量。2001年中国加入WTO，这改变了局势。中国已成为这一开放贸易体系的最大受益者。

An obvious retort is that the TPP and the TTIP would reset the balance. They would solidify the economic integration of advanced democracies and frame the regulatory rules for everyone else. Failure would send a powerful message about waning US leadership and the incoherence of the west. China, already turning economic power into geopolitical punch by leading integration in Asia, would be the obvious winner.

明显可以反驳上述观点的是，TPP和TTIP将重置平衡。它们将巩固发达民主国家之间的经济一体化，并为所有其他国家设定监管规则。如果失败，这将对外发出美国领导能力下降和西方一盘散沙的强烈信号。中国已通过领导亚洲一体化，把经济实力转化为地缘政治影响力。如果TPP和TTIP失败，中国将成为明显的赢家。

Voters are not listening. Free trade is good for the world — for western consumers and for billions in emerging economies being hauled out of poverty. A US retreat will not signal the end to bilateral and smaller, regional, liberalisation agreements. China will do what it can to sign up its neighbours to regional alternatives to the TPP. But without the US, the basic momentum towards liberalisation will be lost. The danger then will be of a gradual slide backwards into outright protectionism.

选民们听不到这些。自由贸易对全世界都有好处，受益者既包括西方消费者，又包括新兴经济体中正在摆脱贫困的数十亿人。美国的后退，并不意味着双边和更小规模的地区性自由贸易协议将终结。中国将尽其所能，与邻国签订可替代TPP的地区性协议。但若没有美国的加入，贸易自由化将失去根本的势头。接着，世界将面临开倒车的危险，逐渐退回彻底的保护主义。

There is no quick fix. A sustained period of growth and rising incomes would help. So, too, would proactive policies to cushion the impact of liberalisation on the losers. The US could start by reinvigorating the trade-adjustment assistance programme introduced in the wake of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993.

目前没有见效快的修补办法。持续的增长和收入的不断增长，将有所助益。采取积极主动的政策、缓冲贸易自由化对输家的冲击，也会有所帮助。美国或许可以从这一条做起：重新启动1993年《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)之后引入的贸易调整援助计划。

But the present politics of middle class discontent demands a response reaching well beyond better retraining schemes and jobs programmes. As long as globalisation is seen as a project of the political elites and the rich it will carry the seeds of its own destruction.

但是，当前中产阶层感到不满的政治状况，要求拿出远不止于更好的再培训计划和就业项目的对策。只要全球化被认为是政界精英和富人的事情，它就将携带自我毁灭的种子。