A full recovery from the worst ever crisis for the global steel industry may take as long as five years, says the head of Japan’s second-largest steelmaker, who is predicting an acceleration in industry-wide consolidation.

日本第二大钢铁企业日本钢铁工程控股(JFE Holdings)社长林田英治(Eiji Hayashida)表示，全球钢铁业要想从有史以来最严重的危机中全面复苏，可能需要长达五年时间。他还预言全行业整合将会加速。

Eiji Hayashida, chief executive of JFE Holdings, said market conditions are expected to improve after China started to shut down steel factories to address excess industrial capacity.

林田英治表示，中国为解决过剩产能开始关闭钢厂后，市场状况有望改善。

But he said it was premature to assume a recent short-term rise in Chinese steel prices would lead to an immediate recovery in global demand. Chinese mills have been accused of compounding sluggish demand by dumping surplus steel on to international markets.

但他表示，就此断言近期中国钢价的短期上涨将引领全球需求立即恢复，还为时过早。中国钢厂一直被指责通过向国际市场倾销过剩钢铁，加重了需求低迷。

“I think what we are seeing now is the bottom and things will not get worse,” Mr Hayashida said in an interview. “But the problem (in China) cannot be resolved in one to two years. It will take three to five years for the situation to considerably improve.”

林田英治接受采访时表示：“我认为现在形势已经到达底部，情况不会变得更糟。但（中国的）问题一两年内是解决不了的，情况大幅改善需要三至五年时间。”

A global glut made steel cheaper last year than at any other point in the past decade, weighing heavily on earnings at other big producers such as ArcelorMittal, US Steel and South Korea’s Posco.

全球供过于求导致钢材价格去年降至十年来最低点，对安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)、美国钢铁公司(US Steel)、韩国浦项制铁(Posco)等其他大型钢企的盈利造成沉重打击。

In Japan, the world’s second-biggest producer of steel, a focus on higher-value steel in smaller volumes has helped shield companies such as JFE Holdings from an influx of typically lower-grade and commoditised steel from emerging markets.

日本是全球第二大钢铁生产国，由于专注于少量生产高附加值钢材，日本钢铁工程控股等企业没有受到从新兴市场涌入的通常品质较低、大宗商品化的钢材的冲击。

Yet even Japanese players are still under pressure. Kobe Steel — which makes Kobelco cranes and diggers as well as metals — is anticipating an annual net loss of Y20bn ($176m) while JFE Holdings halved its net profit forecast to Y25bn for the fiscal year ending in March.

但即使是日本企业也感受到了压力。神户制钢(Kobe Steel)预测年度净亏损200亿日元（合1.76亿美元），其旗下产品包括神钢(Kobelco)起重机、挖掘机和金属制品。日本钢铁工程控股将截至今年3月的财年的净利润预测减半至250亿日元。

Last month, Japan’s biggest steelmaker, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal, said it would buy domestic stainless steel producer Nisshin Steel as it seeks scale to weather the global downturn.

上个月，日本最大的钢铁企业新日铁住金(Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal)表示将收购国内不锈钢生产商日新制钢(Nisshin Steel)，以扩大规模，抵御全球钢铁业下滑。

“What we are seeing today is probably close to the worst-ever crisis for the steel industry,” Mr Hayashida said, comparing the current situation to the global slump in the wake of the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s.

林田英治表示：“我们现在见到的很可能接近钢铁行业有史以来最严重的危机。”他将当前形势与20世纪90年代末亚洲金融危机后的全球钢铁业跳水作比。

What differentiates 2016 from 15 years ago is the focus on higher-value products, which include high-strength steels used in automotive industries, deeper cost-cutting efforts and a stronger balance sheet. Mr Hayashida said such improvements have allowed the company to step up spending to renew ageing facilities despite a deterioration in earnings.

但2016年与15年前的不同之处，在于注重高附加值产品（包括用于汽车行业的高强度钢材）、进一步的成本削减和更强大的资产负债表。林田英治表示在这些改进的帮助下，虽然公司盈利在下降，但依然增加了对老化设施更新的投入。

With the Japanese steel industry now consolidated to three major players, Mr Hayashida said he wants to seek investments and technology alliances with global players. Despite the recent downturn, JFE Holdings is counting on growth in other parts of Asia and emerging markets to drive demand for steel used in cars and infrastructure.

林田英治表示，随着日本钢铁业现在整合成三大主要企业，他希望在全球范围内寻求投资和技术联盟伙伴。尽管近期钢铁行业低迷，但日本钢铁工程控股依然期待亚洲其他地区及新兴市场能带动汽车及基础设施使用钢铁的需求。

“We expect an acceleration in industry-wide realignment and mergers. We are not ruling anything out,” he added.

他表示：“我们预计全行业的重组和合并将会加速。我们不排除任何可能性。”

The company already has a high proportion of exports to South Korea, China and Thailand. In 2010, JFE Holdings acquired a 15 per cent stake in India’s JSW Steel to gain a foothold in one of the world’s fastest growing automobile markets.

日本钢铁工程控股对韩国、中国和泰国的出口比例已经很高。2010年，该公司收购了印度京德勒西南钢铁公司(JSW Steel)的15%股份，在这个增速位居全球前列的汽车市场获得了立足点。