Talk about the pause that refreshes. UK-listed Coke bottler CCH pleasantly surprised the markets with its results last week offering an optimistic outlook for 2016. CCH shares, at one point down 15 per cent this year, have recovered completely.

说到休息一下让人精神焕发呢！在英国上市的可口可乐希腊瓶装公司CCH上周发布了让市场惊喜的业绩，还提供了有关2016年业绩的乐观指引。今年一度下跌15%的CCH股价至今已完全复苏。

Earlier doubts about CCH flowed from its emerging market exposure. Half of its volumes are sold in these economies. Almost a third come from Russia and Nigeria, where falling oil prices are weighing heavily. CCH’s Russian volumes have begun to fall.

此前有关CCH的担忧源于新兴市场敞口。其销售量的一半来自这些经济体。近三分之一来自俄罗斯和尼日利亚，这些国家受油价下跌拖累严重。CCH在俄罗斯的销量已经开始下跌。

Black markets for the naira suggest a 50 per cent devaluation. According to CCH’s estimates, if the Nigerian currency fell that much its net profits would be hit by 15 per cent. Still, CCH says its “established” markets in Europe (think Italy and Switzerland) are doing well, and price increases are on the horizon.

尼日利亚奈拉的黑市价格暗示着50%的贬值。据CCH估计，如果尼日利亚货币贬值那么大幅度，其净利润将损失15%。尽管如此，CCH表示，“老牌”欧洲市场（比如意大利和瑞士）表现不错，正计划调高价格。

CCH is in good shape as regards cash. Over the past five years, free cash flow has averaged 390m annually. Better operating margins, up a percentage point last year, will have only increased that number.

现金方面，CCH状态良好。过去5年来，自由现金流每年平均达3.9亿欧元。更佳的运营利润率（去年提高了1个百分点）只会进一步推高这一数字。

The company needs to use these riches. It could return more to shareholders: a 2 per cent dividend yield is not too generous. Or it could buy growth. Coke is creating a joint venture with SABMiller begun in late 2014, known as Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, which SAB would control.

该公司需要利用这些财富。它可以向股东返还更多：目前2%的股息率不算太慷慨。或者它可以通过收购来拉动增长。可口可乐公司从2014年底开始，跟英国南非米勒酿酒公司(SABMiller)着手建立一家将由SAB控制、名为可口可乐饮料非洲公司(Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, CCBA)的合资企业。

Anheuser-Busch InBev, which aims to acquire SAB, has considerable Pepsi assets — an uneasy fit. Buying out SAB would add a third to CCH volumes.

有计划收购SAB的安海斯布希英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev)拥有大量百事可乐(Pepsi)资产，这是一种令人不安的契合。买下SAB所持股份将为CCH增加三分之一的销量。

Based on the latest data available for CCBA, and assuming a higher valuation multiple than CCH’s (given the difference in margins), SAB’s 57 per cent stake could cost as much as $6bn, thinks SocGen. Compare that with CCH’s market value of $7bn and a deal looks ambitious, even considering that CCH has relatively little debt.

基于可获得的CCBA最新数据，并假设它有比CCH更高的估值倍数（鉴于两者在利润率上的差别），法国兴业银行(SocGen)认为，购买SAB所持的57%股份可能需要60亿美元。相对于CCH 70亿美元的市值，这笔交易看起来雄心勃勃，即便考虑到CCH的债务相对较少。

Increasing the dividend is safer. An acquisition offers higher potential gains. CCH should make its preference clear, and soon.

增加股息可能更加保险。但收购可以提供更多的潜在收益。CCH应尽快明确自己的选择。