Oil’s dismal start to the new year continued yesterday as prices plumbed fresh lows, with Morgan Stanley adding to a growing number of voices warning that prices could slide to $20 a barrel.

油价昨日延续新年的惨淡开局，价格越跌越低，同时摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)加入其他机构的行列，警告油价可能下滑至每桶20美元的水平。

Brent, the global oil marker, fell by more than $2, or 6 per cent, to $31.48 a barrel in late trading, a level last reached in April 2004. Across the Atlantic, meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, dropped more than 6 per cent to $30.97 a barrel, a fresh 12-year low.

全球油价基准布伦特(Brent)在尾盘时分下跌逾2美元，至每桶31.48美元，这是2004年4月以来未见的水平，单日跌幅达6%。在大西洋彼岸，美国油价基准西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)下跌逾6%，至每桶30.97美元，这是12年来的最低点。

The falls extended to 16 per cent a rout that had seen more than 10 per cent knocked off both benchmarks in the first trading week of 2016. “Oil in the $20s is possible,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longson in a report that focused on the possibility of China further devaluing its currency against the US dollar.

最新跌势的累计跌幅已达到16%；上周是2016年首个交易周，其间两个油价基准都下跌逾10%。“每桶20多美元的油价是有可能的，”摩根士丹利分析师亚当朗森(Adam Longson)在一份报告中表示；这份报告聚焦于中国让人民币兑美元汇率进一步走低的可能性。

A slowdown in China, whose growth led the rise in global oil demand over the past decade, in recent weeks has added fears of slowing consumption to massive oversupply, even after a 70 per cent price drop over the past 18 months.

中国经济增长曾在过去10年里带动全球石油需求上升。近几周，中国增长放缓使市场在担心石油大幅供过于求之余，又添加了对于消费增长减速（即便油价在过去18个月里累计下跌了70%）的忧虑。

While efforts to further weaken China’s currency could help shore up its export-focused economy, it would make imports of oil and other dollar-priced commodities more expensive and would be likely to further hit demand.

尽管中国让人民币进一步贬值的努力可能有助于提振其出口拉动型经济，但它将使进口石油及其他以美元计价的大宗商品更加昂贵，很可能会进一步抑制需求。

“[That] could lead to another round of commodity weakness and send oil into the $20s,” said Mr Longson in the report. “$20-$25 oil price scenarios are possible simply due to currency.’’ Banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have also predicted the oil overhang could push crude prices down to $20 levels but for different reasons. Some are concerned that storage tanks in the US could fill up and that prices will to have fall to levels that make it economic to hold oil on tankers at sea.

“（那）可能会导致新一轮的大宗商品价格弱势，使油价跌至每桶20多美元的水平，”朗森在报告中表示。“仅仅是汇率因素就可能酿成油价跌至每桶20至25美元的情形。”其他银行，如高盛(Goldman Sachs)、花旗集团(Citigroup)和美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)，也都已预测石油过剩可能把油价压低至每桶20美元的水平，尽管它们分析的原因有所不同。有人担心，美国的储油罐可能填满，迫使油价下降，最终使得在海上的油轮上储存石油具有经济可行性。

The proliferation of pessimistic views comes as excess supplies of oil show little sign of abating.

各种悲观看法弥漫之际，石油供应过剩没有显示出减弱迹象。

Prices averaged almost $100 a barrel between 2008 and 2014, fuelling a supply boom that the Opec producers’ group has countered by not cutting output, sparking a war of attrition. While a boon for motorists, the price rout has shredded the budgets of oil-producing countries and forced oil majors to slash thousands of jobs and shelved investment plans worth billions of dollars.

2008年至2014年期间平均达到每桶近100美元的油价，引发了一场供应热潮，对此，石油输出国组织（OPEC，中文简称“欧佩克”）坚持不减产，由此导致一场消耗战。尽管这对车主是好消息，但油价低迷重创了产油国的预算，还迫使大型石油公司裁减数千职位，搁置巨额投资计划。

Hedge fund bets against the oil price are close to record levels, standing at the equivalent of almost 363m barrels in futures and options contracts on exchanges in New York and London.

对冲基金押注油价下跌的规模接近历史最高水平，相关期货和期权合约在纽约和伦敦的交易所相当于近3.63亿桶。

But funds last week did raise long positions in the international benchmark Brent, even as they reduced them in WTI, suggesting some have been wrongfooted by the latest price fall.

但是，一些基金上周增加了国际基准布伦特的多头头寸，即便他们减少了美国基准西德克萨斯中质油的多头头寸，这似乎表明一些基金对近日的价格下跌措手不及。

BofA yesterday cut forecasts for crude oil prices for this year, pointing to excess supplies from Opec, China currency woes and already high inventories.

美银昨日下调今年的原油价格预测，其理由包括欧佩克的过多供应、人民币汇率弱势，以及已经很高的库存水平。

The investment bank cut its Brent price forecast from $50 a barrel to $46, and lowered its estimate for West Texas Intermediate from $48 a barrel to $45.

这家投资银行将布伦特油价预测从每桶50美元下调至46美元，将西德克萨斯中质油价格预测从每桶48美元下调至45美元。

“We believe it is early to pick a bottom,” said BofA analysts, while Société Générale also cut its oil price estimates.

“我们相信现在预测价格谷底还为时过早，”美银分析师表示。与此同时，法国兴业银行(Société Générale)也下调了油价预期。