Last week, I visited South Africa for the first time in 15 years. In 2000, when euphoria over the transition to democracy gripped the world’s imagination, I was concerned that the economic challenges would prove overwhelming. Only brave, skilful and honest leadership could deliver a successful future. Inevitably, it has fallen short of these requirements. A downward spiral of populism and declining performance looms.

上周，我在时隔15年后再度访问南非。2000年，在人们对南非转型至民主体制欢欣鼓舞之际，我担心经济挑战将被证明是压倒性的。只有勇敢、技巧高超和诚实的领导人才能带领这个国家迈向成功的未来。不可避免的是，南非没能达到这些要求。民粹主义恶性循环和表现越来越糟糕的局面日益迫近。

Edmar Bacha, a Brazilian economist, applied the label “Belindia” to his own country in the 1970s. Belindia combines Belgium, a small and rich modern country, with India, a large and poor one. Apartheid South Africa was even more Belindia than Brazil: a small, white rich country within a large, black, poor one. Whites lived even better than in Belgium, since they could hire cheap servants from their own India. South Africa was the second most unequal economy in the world, after Brazil. But the racial injustices that drove this inequality were vastly more poisonous.

巴西经济学家埃德马尔巴沙(Edmar Bacha)在上世纪70年代曾用“比利度”(Belindia)这个词称呼自己的国家。“比利度”将富裕的现代化小国比利时与贫穷的大国印度结合在一起。实施种族隔离制度的南非甚至比巴西更加“比利度”：它是一个庞大而贫穷的黑人国家里的一个小而富裕的白人国家。白人的生活甚至好过比利时，因为他们可以从“印度”雇佣廉价的佣人。南非是仅次于巴西的全球第二不平等的经济体。但推动这种不平等的种族不公正有毒得多。

This legacy of injustice has duly shaped post-apartheid South Africa.

结果，正是这种遗留的不公正塑造了取消种族隔离制度之后的南非。

Members of groups previously excluded from South Africa’s Belgium promptly entered it. This reduced inequality between whites and blacks, while increasing it among blacks. Yet today, pre-tax inequality is as high as 20 years ago. It is also the world’s highest. The inhabitants of its Belgium are also taxed more heavily, in order to transfer income and resources to those in its India. Public spending has doubled over the past decade in real terms, with particularly large rises in education, health and social protection. Access to electricity, water and sanitation has much improved. Despite the Aids disaster, life expectancy has risen to close to 60 and infant mortality has fallen sharply.

早先被排除在南非“比利时”以外的人群的某些成员迅速进入其中。这降低了白人和黑人之间的不平等，尽管加大了黑人间的不平等。然而当今的税前不平等和20年前一样高，也是全球最高的。其“比利时”居民也被征收了更多的税收，目的是将收入和资源再分配至该国的“印度”居民。实际公共支出在过去十年里增长了一倍，尤其是教育、医疗和社会保护支出大幅上升。电力、水和卫生设施的获取大幅改善。尽管爆发了艾滋病灾难，但预期寿命提高至近60岁，婴儿死亡率大幅下降。

These choices were both inevitable and right. But neither insertion of a favoured few into the modern economy nor the transfer of resource to the rest can solve the country’s problems. Worse, it cannot even continue on its present path. The potential rate of economic growth is down to 2 per cent. There is a structural fiscal deficit of close to 4 per cent of gross domestic product, while government debt has risen from 22 per cent of GDP in 2008-09 to 44 per cent this year. At 33 per cent of GDP, government spending is high for a middle-income country. (See charts.)

这些选择既是不可避免的，也是正确的。但无论是让一些幸运者进入“比利时”，还是将资源转移给“印度”，都不能解决南非的问题。更糟糕的是，该国就连现在的道路也走不下去。潜在经济增长率已降至2%。结构性财政赤字与国内生产总值(GDP)之比接近4%，同时政府债务与GDP之比已从2008-09年的22%升至今年的44%。政府支出与GDP之比达到33%，对中等收入国家来说是偏高的（见图表）。

Within the bounds of prudence, the largely zero-sum redistributive policies of the early democratic period are exhausted. So what are the options now? There would seem to be three.

就谨慎范畴而言，早期民主阶段的那些基本上零和的再分配政策已经穷尽。那么现在的选项是什么？似乎有3个选项。

First, the country could seek to stabilise the unsatisfactory status quo. This would mean managing the political fallout of a slow-growing and unequal economy blighted by mass unemployment and racial inequities. Worse, groups with the most votes would have the worst deal. This cannot be workable.

首先，南非可能寻求将这种令人不满的现状稳定下来。这将意味着管理增长乏力和经济不平等（南非经济受到大规模失业和种族不平等的重创）的政治冲击波。更糟糕的是，拥有最多选票的人群将得到最不利的安排。这个选项不可能行得通。

Second, politics could take an evermore populist turn, as politicians make promises of a better life to the discontented at the expense of the still contented. But this would make policy increasingly negative-sum: losses imposed on the successful would exceed gains for the less so by an ever-rising margin. Zimbabwe has demonstrated the folly of such an approach. But political entrepreneurs will choose it. Julius Malema of the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters is already doing so. The government will meet the threat by raising its own bids.

其次，政治可能越来越转向民粹主义：政客们以牺牲仍然满意者的利益为代价，向不满者承诺更美好的生活。但这将让政策日益成为一种负和游戏：成功者被迫承受的损失，将以越来越大的差额超出受苦者的收获。津巴布韦已经展示了此类方法有多么愚蠢。但政治企业家将选择这条道路。反对党“经济自由斗士”(Economic Freedom Fighters)的尤利乌斯氠勒马(Julius Malema)已经在这么做。南非政府将抛出自己的民粹主义政策来化解威胁。

The third approach would be to adopt policies for faster, employment-generating growth. Harvard’s Ricardo Hausmann notes powerfully that “if South Africa had a labour force employment ratio similar to Latin America, employment in South Africa would be higher by 66 per cent”. This shows how far South Africa is falling short of what is needed. But faster growth of today’s modern economy, even if feasible, would never generate the jobs the country needs.

第三种方法将是出台政策推动创造就业的经济增长。哈佛(Harvard)的里卡多樠斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)有力地指出，“如果南非有类似于拉美的劳动力就业率，那么该国的就业人数将提高66%”。这表明南非是多么地不合要求。但是，加快当今现代化经济体的增长即使可行，也永远产生不了该国需要的大量就业岗位。

Fifteen years ago, I argued that the least bad option would be to allow the Indian parts of the country to develop under appropriate prices (including low wages).

我在15年前曾经主张，最不坏的选项将是允许南非的“印度”部分以适当水平的价格（包括低工资）走上发展道路。

To accelerate growth there, the government would need to focus investment and subsidies upon it. One possibility might be to turn parts of the country into free economic zones. In essence, South Africa would do what China did under Deng Xiaoping: build a new economy around the old one.

为了加速那里的增长，南非政府将需要聚焦于投资，并向其提供补贴。一个可能是让该国部分地区成为经济特区。本质上，南非将做中国在邓小平领导下做的事情：在旧经济周围建立起一个新的经济。

The question, however, is whether it is still possible for politics to shift from an increasingly negative-sum orientation to a positive-sum one. The gains from growth must go to the disadvantaged. That is evident. But for that to work, there must be not only more growth, but also the right kind of growth.

然而，问题在于南非政界是否仍有可能从一个日益负和的目标转向一个正和目标。经济增长的果实必须让弱势群体分享。这是显而易见的。但要想做到这一点，不仅要实现更多的增长，而且还要实现正确类型的增长。

The present difficulties of the economy, notably the collapse of the rand (down more than a fifth in real terms since 2010) are even an opportunity. This should improve the profitability of production for exports (including of tourism services). It would be wise for South Africa to follow other countries and intervene in foreign currency markets, if necessary, to keep the exchange rate competitive. Fiscal policy should be used in support of such a strategy.

南非经济眼下的困难甚至是一个机遇，尤其是兰德汇率的暴跌——自2010年以来兰德实际汇率下跌了逾五分之一。这应该会改善出口企业（包括旅游服务业）的盈利能力。对南非来说，效仿其他国家在必要情况下干预外汇市场以保持汇率的竞争力将是明智的。应该使用财政政策支持此类战略。

These are, however, just details. The fundamental point is that if the country does not shift to a path of faster, employment-generating growth, the populist disaster seems increasingly inevitable. It may be too late to make the needed switch, particularly with President Jacob Zuma at the helm. But the stagnation and high unemployment of today are a politically unsustainable combination. Change will come. Let it be in the right direction.

不过，这些只是枝节问题。根本问题是，如果南非不能转向更加快速的、创造就业的增长，民粹主义灾难似乎日益不可避免。现在做出必要转变可能为时已晚，尤其是考虑到雅各布嘠魹(Jacob Zuma)仍在担任总统。但是从政治上来说，如今的停滞和高失业率这个组合是不可持续的。改变将会来临。但愿它的方向正确。