The slump in house building in China has driven half of the slowdown in the country’s economic growth since 2010 and is poised to weigh even more heavily in 2016, according to analysis by Standard Chartered.

根据渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的分析，中国自2010年以来经济增长减速，有一半降幅是住房建设低迷造成的，而2016年这个环节将给整体经济带来更大拖累。

The housing market is in even worse shape in Hong Kong, where residential property prices will fall by 10-20 per cent in the next two to three years, the emerging markets-focused bank forecasts, and Singapore, where prices are already falling and are likely to decline by a further 5-10 per cent.

香港和新加坡的住房市场更是糟糕。这家专注于新兴市场的银行预测，未来两到三年，香港住宅地产价格将下跌10%至20%。新加坡房价已在下滑，很可能再跌5%至10%。

“China’s volatile housing sector may be the single most important sector in the world economy at present,” says Enam Ahmed, senior economist, thematic research at Standard Chartered.

渣打银行主题研究部高级经济学家埃纳姆縠哈迈德(Enam Ahmed)说：“中国变动不定的住房行业可能是当前世界经济中唯一最重要的行业。”

“Homebuilding has slumped in the face of a glut of unsold properties and falling prices, pulling down the country’s GDP [gross domestic product] growth rate and impacting commodity markets globally.”

“大量未售房屋以及房价下跌致使住房建设陷入萎靡，不仅拉低了中国GDP增速，还影响全球大宗商品市场。”

Mr Ahmed adds: “Expected [US] rate increases are hanging over housing markets in Singapore and Hong Kong, compounded by fears that Hong Kong housing is in a bubble. Prices have already peaked in Singapore and are likely peaking in Hong Kong now.”

艾哈迈德补充说：“对（美国）加息的预期笼罩着新加坡和香港的住房市场，还有一种担忧是香港房市可能有泡沫。新加坡房价已经见顶，香港房价也可能就要见顶。”

StanChart calculates that housing and sectors linked to housing (such as the residential component of cement, steel, glass and copper demand) contributed 3 percentage points to China’s GDP growth in 2010, but just 1.1 percentage points this year.

渣打估算，2010年，住房及相关行业（用于住宅建设的水泥、钢材、玻璃以及铜等的需求）为中国GDP增速贡献了3个百分点，但今年只有1.1个百分点。

With economic growth having slowed from 10.6 per cent to 6.9 per cent over the same period, this suggests that the ills of the housing market were responsible for half of the slowdown in economic growth.

同一时期，经济增速从10.6%放缓至6.9%，这样一推算，经济增速有一半降幅是由住房市场的萎靡造成的。

Mr Ahmed believes the residential property sector will weigh more heavily still in 2016, with its contribution to economic growth falling to between zero and 1 percentage point, although a pick-up in activity elsewhere in the Chinese economy should keep overall GDP growth at around 7 per cent, he forecasts.

艾哈迈德认为，2016年，住宅房地产行业将给经济带来更大拖累，其对经济增长率的贡献将降到零至1个百分点之间。但他预计，中国其他经济部门向好应会使整体GDP增速保持在7%左右。

StanChart does not believe that mainland China is suffering from a generalised house price bubble, even if prices, relative to wages, have risen to eye-watering levels in major cities such as Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai, as the first chart shows.

渣打并不认为中国内地房市整体上出现了价格泡沫，即使深圳、北京、上海等主要城市的房价（相对于工资）已涨至令人难以忍受的水平。

Instead, Mr Ahmed argues that the ready availability of land has generated a bubble in house building, creating serious oversupply, especially in tier three and tier four cities, many of which saw a building boom between 2011 and 2013.

艾哈迈德认为，土地易得使住宅建设环节产生了泡沫，造成了严重的供过于求，尤其是在三、四线城市，其中许多城市在2011年至2013年间出现了建设热潮。

Housing starts have since fallen by 28 per cent, but StanChart estimates that the excess inventory of unsold properties stands at 9m, while a further 40m-50m homes are being held vacant as investments.

自2013年以来，住宅开工率下降了28%，但渣打估计，未售房屋的过剩库存高达900万套，同时还有4000万至5000万套房屋因被作为投资之用而处于空置状态。

Against this backdrop, the bank believes housing starts will fall a little further, before stabilising, as the excess inventory is worked through.

在这一背景下，渣打认为，由于要消化过剩库存，住房开工率在企稳前将进一步下滑。

Longer term, Mr Ahmed is more upbeat, however. Given continuing urbanisation, rising incomes and the potential relaxation of the hukou household registration system, he believes demand will rise by 175m homes by 2030, opening the door to construction of around 150m new properties.

然而，长远来看，艾哈迈德更为乐观。考虑到持续的城镇化、收入提高以及户籍制度有可能放宽，他认为，到2030年将新增1.75亿套住房需求，所以有空间再新建约1.5亿套住宅。

Other analysts have a guarded view of the Chinese residential property sector, in the short to medium term at least.

其他分析师则对中国住宅市场持谨慎态度——至少在短期至中期内。

John-Paul Smith, partner at Ecstrat, an investment advisory firm, in his outlook for 2016, argues that inventory levels “remain too high through most of the country for a sustainable increase in housing starts and land sales”.

投资咨询公司Ecstrat合伙人约翰-保罗史密斯(John-Paul Smith)在2016年展望报告中称，库存水平“在全国大部分地区仍处于过高水平，不会推动住宅开工率和土地出让持续上升”。

Prakash Sakpal, Asian economist at ING, believes that housing starts will rise in 2016 as more Chinese cities report higher prices (39 out of 70 in September, up from zero a year earlier).

荷兰国际集团(ING)的亚洲经济学家普拉卡什萨克帕尔(Prakash Sakpal)认为，随着更多中国城市的房价上涨（今年9月70个城市中有30个出现上涨，而一年前房价上涨的城市数量为零），2016年住宅开工率将提高。

Nevertheless, Mr Sakpal, who argues that prospects for a broader turnround in growth depend on the housing market, fears real estate will remain the “weakest component” of fixed asset investment next year, despite his forecast uptick.

萨克帕尔认为，经济增长能否出现整体好转要看住房市场，他担心房地产行业仍将是明年固定资产投资中的“最疲弱部分”，尽管他预测房地产投资会出现提升。

Chang Liu and Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economists at Capital Economics, point out that average mortgage rates fell by 143 basis points between November 2014, when the People’s Bank started easing monetary policy, and the end of June, and are likely to have fallen further after a 25bp rate cut in August.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的两位中国经济学家刘畅和朱利安埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出，从2014年11月央行开始放松货币政策，至今年6月底期间，抵押贷款平均利率下降了143个基点，而且，继8月降息25个基点后，利率很可能会进一步下调。

Sales data from developers suggest price growth has picked up too, they say, but “stable” future demand and the “glut” of unsold properties mean the market is likely to remain subdued.

开发商的销售数据显示，房价上涨也有所加快，但“稳定”的未来需求和“过剩的”未售房屋意味着住宅市场很可能仍将处于低迷状态。

In neighbouring Hong Kong, where house prices have risen 190 per cent since 2008, as the second and third charts show, StanChart says the residential market “meets almost all our criteria for a bubble” including high valuations, rising indebtedness, a “new element” driving prices (mainland Chinese buyers), “avid” media and public attention and very easy monetary policy.

如第二和第三幅图所示，香港房价自2008年以来上涨了190%。渣打银行表示香港住宅市场“几乎符合我们对泡沫的所有标准”，包括估值过高、债务攀升、出现拉动价格的“新元素”（内地买家）、“热心”的媒体和公众关注，以及非常宽松的货币政策。

Yet the bank does not anticipate a fall in property prices anywhere near as severe as the 65 per cent slump witnessed during the Asian financial crises of 1997-98.

但渣打银行预计香港房价下滑绝不会像1997到1998年亚洲金融危机期间那么严重，当时房价下跌了65%。

Instead, Mr Ahmed foresees a “manageable” correction of 10-20 per cent over the next two to three years, given “strong” economic fundamentals and an expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates by less than 100bp during 2016 and 2017, an important consideration in a territory that is forced to import US monetary policy in order to maintain its currency peg.

相反，艾哈迈德预计未来两到三年内香港楼价会有10%到20%的“可控”修正，原因包括“强劲的”经济基本面，以及预计美联储在2016至2017年间加息幅度将低于100个基点——对于一个被迫输入美国货币政策以维持本币与美元联系汇率的地区来说，后者是一个很重要的因素。

In Singapore, house prices have already fallen 8 per cent since 2013 as the central bank has tightened lending policies and immigration has slowed.

在新加坡，自2013年起，随着新加坡央行收紧放贷政策，移民增速放缓，房价已下跌了8%。

Compared with Hong Kong, Mr Ahmed is more relaxed about a potential bubble in Singapore, given that valuations are less stretched and that the market is less vulnerable to a Chinese slowdown or faster-than-expected US monetary tightening.

与香港相比，艾哈迈德认为新加坡出现泡沫的可能性更低，因为其估值没有那么高，而且该市场较不受中国经济放缓或美国可能比预期更早加息的影响。

Nevertheless, he sees Singaporean property prices falling a further 10 per cent.

不过他认为新加坡房价还会再跌10%。

The International Monetary Fund has estimated that a 10 per cent fall in house prices in Asia has typically reduced GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，在亚洲，房价下跌10%通常会将GDP增长率拉低2.5个百分点。

However, StanChart does not believe this will prove the case in Hong Kong or Singapore this time around.

但渣打银行并不认为这一次香港或新加坡会出现上述情况。

“In our view the effects are likely non-linear so a moderate fall in house prices has proportionally less impact on GDP than a larger fall,” Mr Ahmed says. “This is one reason we believe the moderate declines in prices we expect in Hong Kong and Singapore will not cause a recession.”

艾哈迈德表示：“我们认为房价变动对GDP的影响可能是非线性的，温和下滑只会造成较小影响。这也是我们认为香港和新加坡房价温和下跌不会引起经济衰退的原因之一。”