Back in 2004, when I ran the China desk at the International Monetary Fund, my team sent some written questions to Beijing ahead of our meetings with Chinese officials. China’s central bank had claimed that the value of the currency, the renminbi, was determined by market forces. But to the rest of the world, it looked like the currency’s value was tightly managed — so tightly that its value relative to the U.S. dollar did not change. We asked how this was possible if the exchange rate was truly market determined. After all, market exchange rates among major currencies fluctuate a lot.

早在2004年，当我还在国际货币基金组织(IMF)负责处理中国事务时，我的团队曾在与中国官员会面之前，向北京方面递交了一些问题。中国央行此前声称，人民币汇率是由市场机制决定。但在其他国家眼中，人民币汇率显然受到严格管控，从人民币对美元汇率保持不变就可见一斑。我们就此询问北京方面，如果汇率真的是由市场决定，这如何行得通。毕竟，重要货币的市场汇率都会上下浮动。

The response from the central bank nicely summed up the Chinese approach to market forces: “The exchange rate is fully determined by market supply and demand. The authorities endeavor to manage both supply and demand in a manner that promotes the stable formation of the exchange rate mechanism.”

央行的回复完美地诠释了中国对待市场机制的态度：“汇率完全由市场供求决定。中国政府努力调控供求，以促进汇率机制的稳定形成。”

In other words, the central bank controlled both supply and demand to fix the “market-determined” exchange rate at a constant level.

换言之，央行控制了供求，将“市场化”汇率固定在始终如一的水平上。

On Monday, the I.M.F. elevated the renminbi to the status of a global reserve currency — deeming it available for wide use in trade and finance and suitable for safekeeping of other countries’ foreign-exchange reserves. This was a prize China had long sought, in return for financial market and currency reforms that the I.M.F. had requested. But while the elevation of the renminbi is a validation of China’s recent reform efforts, the government has a long way to go on the path to a market economy.

周一，IMF将人民币地位提升到国际储备货币，认为人民币适用于广泛的金融贸易，完全可以成为他国的外汇储备币种。这是中国长期以来的追求，是对进行金融市场和货币改革的奖励。这些改革也正是IMF此前的要求。然而，即使人民币地位的提升，证明中国近期改革卓有成效，其政府要实现市场化经济，依然有漫长的路要走。

The reality is that for all of the country’s economic liberalization and progress over the past decade the government has still not entirely changed its approach to the free market. China today represents a grand experiment in whether the tension between two contradictory forces — the free market and the government’s proclivity to do whatever it takes to maintain “stability and order” — can be reconciled.

事实上，即使中国在过去十年展开经济自由化，并获得各项进展，政府依然没有完全改变其对待自由市场的方式。自由市场和政府千方百计维持“稳定有序”的愿景，是两股矛盾的力量。能否化解这两股力量间的矛盾之处，正是今日中国面临的一场重大实验。

This experiment has come under pressure in recent months as Chinese economic growth has slowed, and the currency and stock markets have been volatile. But for all the doomsday prophesying rampant in the media, China’s growth is not about to collapse and the stock market meltdown doesn’t presage a financial crisis. Much of the volatility in stock markets and in the currency’s value in recent months reflects, in large part, a well-intentioned but limited and poorly executed reform program.

数月来，中国经济增速放缓，货币汇率和股市动荡不安，这场试验也面临着巨大压力。然而，即使媒体一致唱衰，中国经济增长并不会崩溃，股票市场的溃败也不预示着金融危机的到来。近期股市和人民币汇率的震荡，反映出改革初衷良好，但是范围有限，执行不佳。

The government is, indeed, moving ahead with financial sector reforms that are essential for China to better manage its economy and allocate its massive pool of savings to more productive investment opportunities. Interest rates on bank deposits and loans are no longer determined by the government. State-owned banks now have to compete with private and foreign banks. The government also recently freed up exchange rates, so that the value of the renminbi can be more subject to market forces.

显然，中国政府正在推进金融领域的改革，这对更好地治理经济，对其大量资金进行更加有效的投资都至关重要。如今，银行存贷款利率都已不再由政府制定；中国的国有银行必须和私立银行及外资银行竞争。近期，政府放松了利率管制，因此市场力量会对人民币汇率发挥更大作用。

But the way such reforms are implemented suggests a deep reluctance to allow markets to have free rein. The devaluation of the renminbi by about 2 percent relative to the dollar in mid-August caught more attention than changes ostensibly allowing the currency’s value to be more freely determined with less intervention by the central bank. The move helped position the renminbi for the I.M.F. benediction on Monday, but the government did not communicate its intentions well at the time, leading to the widespread view that China was simply trying to cheapen its currency to improve the competitiveness of its exports.

但这种改革实施的方式却显示出，官方极不情愿允许市场自由波动。8月中旬人民币相对于美元贬值近2%，这一情况受到的关注，远远超过了表面看来允许人民币汇率更自由地被决定，和减少央行干预的政策变动。这为人民币本周一得到IMF的接纳预先做好了准备，但当时政府没能很好地阐述其意图，导致外界广泛认为中国这么做只是在尝试贬值人民币，从而提升中国出口行业的竞争力。

The ensuing volatility led the central bank to go right back to intervening in the foreign-exchange market to maintain stability of the exchange rate. Such a one step forward, two steps sideways approach to market liberalization has ironically increased the inevitable risks that arise during the transition to freer markets.

之后的波动导致央行干脆回归过去的做法，通过干预外汇市场来维持汇率的稳定。对于市场自由化，采取这种前进一步、偏离两步的做法，在向更加自由的市场转型的过程中，增加了不可避免的风险，颇有讽刺意味。

The renminbi’s newfound status as an official reserve currency will only heighten these tensions. Foreign investors will over time increase their demand for the currency to move more freely in and out of China’s financial markets. Heavy-handed and unpredictable government intervention might make these flows more volatile.

人民币新近成为正式的储备货币，只会加剧这些紧张。随着时间推移，外国投资者会日益要求人民币能够更自由地进出中国的金融市场。力度很强且不可预期的政府干预，可能会让这些流动更不稳定。

Meanwhile, the government has done little to improve corporate governance of Chinese companies or their accounting and auditing standards. The result has been wild swings in stock prices, as investors have sparse information about the companies that they are investing in.

同时，政府也没有采取多少措施，改善中国企业的内部管理或会计和审计标准。其结果就是，投资者对于自己投资的企业了解极少，进而促使股价疯狂波动。

Even Chinese investors seem to value the benefits of a free market, but they still count on the government to step in when things turn sour. Responding to these expectations, the government has intervened on and off to prop up stock prices, confusing investors about its true intentions and adding to volatility, which could in turn erode political support for reforms.

就连中国投资者似乎都很珍视自由市场的好处，但他们仍然指望着政府在局势恶化时介入。为回应这样的期待，政府时不时地会进行干预，以支撑股价，于是投资者对其真实目的感到困惑，因而加剧了波动，这反过来又侵蚀了改革举措得到的政治支持。

One key to controlling the impulse to intervene is managing expectations. On a visit this summer to Shenzhen, a major port city in Guangdong Province in southern China, I met a large group of entrepreneurs to discuss the state of China’s economy. I asked for a show of hands for those who thought their country would attain this year’s official G.D.P. growth target of 7 percent. About half of the hands went up. I then asked if they agreed with the perception abroad that their government was not managing the economy well. Virtually every hand in the room shot up, followed by a blistering attack on policy makers in Beijing for allowing the stock market to fall sharply and letting the currency become too volatile.

要想控制这种干预的冲动，一个关键做法是管理预期。今年夏天，在访问广东省的大型港口城市深圳时，我见到了一大群企业家，与他们探讨了中国经济的现状。我请那些认为中国的GDP增长能够达到官方设定的7%目标的人举一下手，大约有一半人举手。之后我问，国外观点认为中国政府管理经济失当，他们当中有多少人认同这种说法。屋里几乎所有人都嗖地举起了手，之后开始激烈地抨击北京的政策制定者，允许股市急剧下跌、让人民币波动加剧。

These reactions highlight the challenges China’s leaders face: They have to get Chinese citizens used to not just the freedom and benefits but also the inherent risks of the marketplace. A tall order in the best of times and harder when economic growth is slowing.

这些反应突显了中国领导人面临的挑战：他们必须让中国公民不仅习惯自由和收益，也要习惯市场所固有的风险。即使在经济最好的时候这都很困难，在经济增长放缓的时候则更难。

The solution is not more government control but steps to improve regulatory frameworks and getting other institutional aspects such as corporate governance and transparency right while freeing up markets.

解决之道并不是加大政府控制，而是采取措施改善监管架构，并在提升市场自由度的同时，让其他制度层面的东西，如企业治理和透明度走上正轨。

The fundamental question that China’s policy makers face is whether they will back up their commitment to financial sector reforms with broader measures that will truly free up markets and support them with a strong institutional foundation. Otherwise, the inherent contradictions in trying to free up markets while maintaining state control may cause well-intentioned reform efforts to backfire. This will simply create more volatility and generate few of the intended benefits. And that would not be good for China or the world economy.

中国政策制定者面前的根本问题在于，他们是不是愿意履行自己对金融领域改革的承诺，采取更广泛的举措去为市场松绑，并通过有力的制度基础来予以支撑。否则，试图推动市场自由又想维持国家控制，就有不可避免的矛盾，而这种矛盾可能会致使原本好意的改革举措产生反作用。这只会制造更多的波动，且几乎不会带来什么预期的良好效果。而这对中国和世界经济，都不是好消息。