Foreign investment flows to Myanmar have tailed off since a mini-boom just before the military junta stood aside, as cooler relations with China, a tricky business environment and persistent sanctions drag on this new commercial frontier.

自缅甸军政府交权前出现的短暂繁荣期以来，由于对华关系转冷、复杂的营商环境及该国受到的持续制裁拖累了这一块新的商业地带，流向缅甸的外国投资已日渐减少。

While overseas commercial interest is more consistent and diverse than before the March 2011 transition, a plunge in Chinese investment has not yet been fully matched by the emergence of Singapore as a gateway to a state at Asia’s strategic crossroads.

比起2011年3月政权移交前，如今外商对缅甸的商业兴趣更加稳定而多元化。尽管如此，对于这个处于亚洲战略十字路口的国家，中国投资的大幅减少还没有从新加坡日渐扮演的门户角色中得到充分补偿。

On the eve of Sunday’s historic general election, the country’s business story is partly one of tempered ambitions — but also of dealmaking that does not necessarily show up in official figures.

在本周日的历史性大选前夕，缅甸的商业故事在一定程度上是一个雄心壮志被压抑的故事，不过，这个故事也是一个达成交易的故事，尽管这些交易未必显示在官方数据中。

“We are at the point where a lot of people are very negative on Myanmar,” said Romain Caillaud, a senior director at FTI Consulting who focuses on the country. “But some people might have had bloated expectations — and Myanmar hasn’t fared so badly.”

以缅甸为主要研究对象的富事高商务咨询(FTI Consulting)高级主管罗曼愠约(Romain Caillaud)表示：“目前，许多人对缅甸持极为负面的看法。不过，部分人此前也许已提高了对缅甸的期望，缅甸的表现也没有那么糟。”

Total foreign direct investment reached just over $19bn in the four years after the quasi-civilian government led by Thein Sein, the president, took power in March 2011 — less than the $20bn tallied in the last 12 months of the previous regime, according to official figures.

根据官方发布的数据，2011年3月缅甸总统登盛(Thein Sein)领导的准平民政府掌权后的四年，缅甸外商直接投资(FDI)总额达到190亿美元多一点，低于此前政权最后12个月录得的200亿美元。

Mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for more than 70 per cent of that pre-transition bonanza. But that share has fallen to less than 15 per cent in the years since the Myanmar government made its unexpected — and still reverberating — decision in late 2011 to suspend work on the Beijing-backed Myitsone dam.

缅甸在政权移交前所获的大规模投资中，来自中国内地和香港的投资占了70%以上。不过，2011年底缅甸政府出人意料地决定（这一决定至今影响犹存）叫停中国政府投资的密松水电站的建设。自那以后，中国内地和香港所占投资份额已下滑至不到15%。

Despite the China fall-off, however, total annual foreign direct investment flows into the country are now in the billions rather than the sub-billion trickles that preceded the 2010-11 rush to get deals signed off before the political handover. Singapore has become an entry point, accounting for more than half the foreign investment both last year and the half-year to date, as companies are drawn to the combination of privacy and the rule of law the city-state offers.

然而，尽管来自中国的投资减少了，但目前每年流向缅甸的外商直接投资总额达数十亿美元，而不是像2010年至2011年那场投资狂潮之前那样，只有不到10亿美元。（2010-11年的投资狂潮，是由于各方想赶在政权移交前签署协议而导致的。）由于企业纷纷被新加坡对隐私的保护和它的法治吸引到那里，新加坡如今已成为缅甸的一个入口，不论是去年、还是今年到目前为止的这大半年，新加坡都占到缅甸外商投资的一半以上。

Official data do not capture other important trends such as Japan’s rising commercial interest, backed by the country’s development agency muscle. Dozens of companies have signed up for the new Tokyo-backed Thilawa special economic zone south-east of Yangon, including car parts makers and garment manufacturers.

官方数据并未体现出其他一些重要的趋势，比如日本企业在该国开发机构资金支持下不断增长的商业兴趣。数十家企业已同意入驻新成立的迪拉瓦经济特区，其中包括汽车部件制造商和服装生产商。这一位于仰光东南面的经济特区得到了日本政府的投资。

The official numbers also fail to reflect deals done by western companies other than those with a big physical presence — which are dominated by consumer industries businesses such as BAT, Coca-Cola and Heineken.

此外，官方数据还未能反映出那些没有在当地大规模建厂的西方企业完成的交易。那些在当地大规模建厂的西方企业以英美烟草集团(BAT)、可口可乐(Coca-Cola)和喜力(Heineken)等消费品企业为主。

Retailers such as Gap and H&M are now sourcing from Myanmar, while AviaSolutions, a UK-based advisory firm, has worked on the relaunch of the country’s national airline and the opening of its first international routes.

Gap和H&M等零售商眼下从缅甸采购，总部位于英国的咨询公司阿维亚解决方案集团(AviaSolutions)也已着手重新启动缅甸的国家航空公司，并开启缅甸首批国际航线。

But some big obstacles to operating in Myanmar persist, including legal uncertainties, soaring property prices in Yangon and a lack of infrastructure, skilled workers and reliable power supplies. Several institutions and individuals in Myanmar remain under junta-era US sanctions, some with business interests stretching awkwardly wide, from mining to hotels.

不过，在缅甸开展业务的部分巨大障碍依然存在，其中包括法律上的不确定性、仰光飙升的房价、基础设施不足、熟练工人短缺以及缺乏可靠的电力供应。缅甸多家机构和一些个人依然受制于美国在缅甸军政府时期对其实施的制裁，棘手的是，其中部分机构和个人的商业利益涉及面极广，从采矿到酒店无所不包。

Some investors who piled in too quickly around the time of the 2011 transition ended up getting burnt because they “believed the froth about the Golden Land” — a name commonly used to promote Myanmar — said one person who follows business in the country closely. Myanmar has also suffered lately from growing global bearishness about emerging markets — although it did conclude its energy field licensing just before the global oil price plunged last year.

一名密切关注缅甸商业活动的人士表示，因为“相信了关于这片‘金色大地’（这个词常常被用来宣传缅甸）的空谈”，一些投资者在2011年缅甸政权交接期过于迅速地投资了缅甸，结果被搞得焦头烂额。此外，全球对新兴市场不断加深的看空，最近也对缅甸产生了不利影响——尽管缅甸在去年全球油价暴跌前已完成了油气田开发牌照的颁发。

Thura Soe-Paing, entrepreneur and a director of private equity firm Golden Rock Capital, said the business climate had improved significantly since he returned to the country in October 2010. Upgrades in mobile communications meant services now and then were “night and day”, although access to finance remained a huge problem and many bills still had to be paid in cash.

私募股权公司Golden Rock Capital的董事、企业家Thura Soe-Paing表示，自2010年10月他重返缅甸以来，缅甸的营商环境已大有改善。移动通信的升级意味着服务今非昔比，尽管金融服务仍是个大问题，许多账单也仍需以现金支付。

“If I had to give it all a grade, I would give it a B-plus,” he said. “The political issues overshadow most of what happens here. But we are very, very bullish.”

他说：“如果要我给整体情况评个级，我会给它评B+。政治问题掩盖了这里发生的大多数变化。不过，我们对前景极为看好。”