China’s state-owned airlines have had a turbulent year and are warning of first-half earnings to match when they report this month.
中国的国有航空公司在2013年经历了动荡的一年，各企业将在本月发布半年报之际，警告已经发出，今年上半年的盈利状况也将不相上下。
With the bulk of their earnings in renminbi and fuel and aircraft costs denominated in US dollars, China’s big three airlines benefited from the Chinese currency’s steady appreciation against the greenback over the past decade.
由于收益主要以人民币结算，而燃油和飞机成本则用美元结算，过去10年里，中国的三大航空公司受益于人民币相对于美元的稳定升值。

But in recent weeks, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern have all issued profit warnings, citing foreign exchange losses from the renminbi’s unexpected weakening this year.
但在最近几周，中国国航(Air China)、东航(China Eastern )和南航(China Southern)都以今年人民币意外走弱造成汇兑损失为由，陆续发布了盈利预警。
China Eastern was the latest to brace shareholders for disappointing numbers. Last month it said it would book a first-half profit of less than Rmb50m ($8m) compared with a Rmb582m profit for the same period in 2013.
东航是最后一家发布盈警的。该公司上月表示，预计上半年利润低于5000万元人民币（合800万美元），而2013年同期的利润额为5.82亿元人民币。
Based in Shanghai, China Eastern has been hit by recent cancellations from Chinese military exercises, which have caused widespread disruption to flights across eastern and central China.
近期中国军事演习造成华东和华中地区大量航班延误和取消，给总部在上海的东航带来很大影响。
As many as 26,000 flights could be affected by the time the People’s Liberation Army’s operations end in mid-August.
到8月中旬人民解放军结束演习时，受影响的航班可能达到2.6万架次。
An unexpected reversal of the renminbi’s uptrend, with the Chinese currency slipping from Rmb6 to the dollar to Rmb6.25 earlier this year, has inflated the value of the carriers’ already high debt levels in local currency terms.
人民币的上行趋势意外逆转——从1美元兑6元人民币下跌到1美元兑6.25——这使三大航本就高企的债务按人民币计算的价值进一步升高。
“Most of the negative foreign exchange impact comes from the balance sheet and the mark-to-market of their US dollar debt,” says Patrick Xu, aviation analyst at Barclays.
“绝大部分的负面汇兑影响来自资产负债表，以及按市价计算这些航空公司的美元债务，”巴克莱(Barclays)的航空业分析师Patrick Xu说。
“These companies are very highly geared.”
“这些公司的负债比率很高。”
Macquarie estimates that at the end of last year, before the renminbi began to fall, the big three’s net debt to equity ranged between 180 per cent and 267 per cent. China Eastern is the most heavily indebted, with its gearing expected to rise to almost 500 per cent next year.
据麦格理(Macquarie)估算，在上年年末，人民币开始走低之前，三大航的净负债对股东权益比率处于180%到267%之间。东航的债务水平最高，其负债比率明年可能上升到近500%。
But analysts at both Barclays and Macquarie have either “buy” or “hold” recommendations on Air China and China Southern, citing strong underlying passenger demand, their monopoly pricing power on lucrative domestic routes and a resumption of the renminbi’s upward trend. Barclays also recommends buying China Eastern shares, while Macquarie has an “underperform” rating on the stock.
但是巴克莱和麦格理的分析师对国航和南航的股票给出了“买入”或者“持有”的建议，理由是基础乘客需求强劲、在利润丰厚的国内航线上拥有垄断定价能力，以及人民币恢复上行趋势。巴克莱也推荐买入东航的股票，而麦格理则对东航股票给出了“逊于大盘”的评级。
Chinese airlines’ pricing power has insulated them from the worst effects of high fuel prices. While fuel is their biggest expense, at more than one-third of total costs, the big three – which spent Rmb99.9bn on fuel in 2013 – can pass along about 75 per cent of rises to Chinese passengers and 50 per cent to international ones.
中国航空公司的定价能力使它们没有受到燃油价格高企的严重冲击。燃油是这些航空公司最大的支出项目，占总成本的三分之一以上，三大航2013年的燃油支出共计999亿元人民币。但三大航可以将燃油价格上涨成本的75%转嫁给国内航线的乘客，将50%转嫁给国际乘客。
The airlines are also contemplating a resumption of fuel hedging activities. China’s regulator banned the carriers from buying crude future contracts – a key form of protection against rising fuel costs – after they incurred heavy losses in 2009 by betting the wrong way on crude oil price movements.
三大航也在考虑恢复燃油对冲操作。由于对原油价格走势预测错误，2009年中国的航空公司因购买原油期货（一种对冲燃油价格上涨的主要手段）蒙受巨大损失，之后中国监管机构禁止了此类行为。
Air China said in March that its board had approved a resumption in hedging activities “according to market conditions”, but confirmed on August 13 that it had not yet resumed the practice.
国航3月曾宣布，其董事会已经批准公司“根据市场状况”重启对冲活动，但在8月13日证实尚未开始此类活动。
China Eastern and China Southern declined to comment on any plans to resume hedging.
东航和南航拒绝就是否计划重启对冲置评。
In contrast, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, which is also insulated from currency fluctuations by the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, has said that it has locked in 25 per cent of fuel requirements through the first half of 2015 at Brent crude oil prices of less than $100 a barrel. Singapore Airlines hedges up to 60 per cent of its fuel requirement. [update] On Friday Brent crude oil was trading around $102 a barrel.
香港国泰航空(Cathay Pacific)则宣布，已将直到2015年上半年的燃油需求的四分之一锁定在低于每桶100美元的布伦特原油(Brent crude oil)价格——由于香港实行盯住美元的联系汇率制，国泰航空也不会受到汇率波动的影响。新加坡航空(Singapore Airlines)将多达60%的燃油需求进行了对冲安排。上周五，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶102美元左右。
“Managing risk associated with high and volatile fuel prices remains a priority,” said John Slosar, Cathay chairman. “Our fuel hedging extends to 2017.”
“管理与高企、易波动的燃油价格相关的风险依然是首要任务，”国泰航空董事会主席史乐山(John Slosar)说，“我们的燃油对冲持续到2017年。”