Market concerns are rising over divisions at the top of the Federal Reserve on when to lift interest rates, casting fresh uncertainty over the US central bank’s strategy for withdrawing its monetary stimulus.
令市场越发担忧的是，美联储(Fed)最高层官员在加息时机方面的分歧，为这家美国央行撤回其货币刺激的战略增加了新的不确定性。
The divisions burst into the open this week when two Fed board members ­signalled that they oppose a near-term increase in interest rates, questioning the approach adopted by chair Janet Yellen amid divisions over the outlook for inflation.
本周，这些分歧公开化了。两名美联储理事表示，他们反对在近期加息，在各方对通胀前景意见不一之际，这一表态对美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)采取的姿态提出了质疑。
Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, warned yesterday that uncertainty was leading to heightened volatility.
全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)的首席执行官拉里•芬克(Larry Fink)昨日警告称，不确定性正在加剧市场波动。
“Some of the official authorities are guilty of, instead of being a calming influence, through their mixed messages, inflaming the markets,” he said.
“某些官方权威人物的问题在于，他们非但没有发挥安抚人心的影响，反而通过矛盾的信息，加剧了市场波动，”他说。
A disappointing US retail sales report, showing headline sales rose just 0.1 per cent in August, further damped traders’ expectations of an early rate rise.
令人失望的美国零售销售报告——显示8月的整体销售增长率仅为0.1%——进一步降低了交易员们对于美联储会尽早加息的预期。
Fed board member Daniel Tarullo said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday that his expectation was that it was not appropriate to raise rates this year, joining fellow governor Lael Brainard in a wait-and-see posture.
周二，美联储理事丹尼尔•塔鲁洛(Daniel Tarullo)在接受CNBC采访时表示，他预计今年内加息是不合适的，他由此加入另一位理事莱尔•布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)的行列，认为应该采取观望姿态。
Roberto Perli of Cornerstone Macro said differences between regional Fed presidents were not uncommon. “The novelty here is that both Tarullo and Brainard are members of the Fed’s board of governors and as such supposedly close to Yellen,” he said.
Cornerstone Macro的罗伯托•佩尔利(Roberto Perli)表示，美联储地区行长之间出现分歧是常有的事。他说，“这次的新奇之处在于，塔鲁洛和布雷纳德都是美联储理事，因此理应跟耶伦关系密切。”
Both policymakers appeared to raise doubts about an assumption underpinning Ms Yellen’s policymaking approach — namely that, as the US approaches full employment, inflation will accelerate.
这两位政策制定者似乎对支撑耶伦政策路径的一项假设提出了质疑。这项假设是，随着美国接近充分就业状况，通胀率将加速上升。
Mr Perli said: “The fact that they essentially called into question Yellen’s speech where she made the case for ­lift-off this year is remarkable and plunges Fed communication back into confusion.”
佩尔利说：“实际上，他们质疑了耶伦在讲话中对今年加息的论证，这一事实令人瞩目，使美联储的对外沟通回到混乱状态。”
Ryan Sweet, Moody’s senior economist, said the “discordant” rhetoric was significant. “Yellen has time to forge a consensus but airing the officials’ ­disagreements publicly can have unintended consequences.”
穆迪(Moody’s)高级经济学家赖安•斯威特(Ryan Sweet)表示，这种“不协调的”言论意义重大。“耶伦有时间凝聚共识，但官员们公开表达不同意见，可能产生意想不到的后果。”
Interest rate futures now imply that investors see an even chance that the Fed, having left rates unchanged at its September meeting, will hold rates until March, according to Bloomberg data. Few expect a move at this month’s meeting but the position at the Fed’s December gathering is harder to predict.
彭博(Bloomberg)数据表明，眼下的利率期货市场行情暗示，美联储在今年9月的议息会议上维持利率不变之后、将把当前利率水平保持至明年3月的几率为五成。很少有人预计美联储会在本月议息会议上采取行动，但12月会议的结果更难预料。