Emergency government measures designed to curb a free fall in the Chinese stock market last week have apparently succeeded in stabilising the market. Now regulators have turned their attention to the root causes of the boom-bust cycle.
中国政府上周为遏止国内股市暴跌而采取的紧急措施显然已经成功稳住了市场。现在，监管机构已经将注意力转向大起大落周期的根本原因。
Late on Sunday the China Securities Regulatory Commission warned brokerages not to open their trading systems to so-called fund-matching companies that distribute grey-market margin loans to investors, with few safeguards. Such lending occurs outside the regulatory framework that governs margin finance by brokerages.
上周日晚，中国证券监督管理委员会(CSRC)警告券商不要向所谓的配资公司开放其交易系统。配资公司向投资者经销灰色市场保证金贷款，几乎没有任何保障措施，而且此类放贷不在规范券商提供保证金贷款的监管框架内。
“Leverage by itself isn’t necessarily threatening,” says Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank advising the government. “The problem is that it’s not transparent. Regulators can’t see what’s going on. That’s very dangerous.”
“杠杆本身不一定是威胁，”向政府提供咨询的智库——中国社科院金融研究所的研究员刘煜辉表示，“问题在于它不透明。监管机构看不到实际情况。那非常危险。”
Mr Liu says the CSRC’s move “should have been done when the index was at 3,000-4,000”. The Shanghai Composite peaked at 5,179 on June 12 before dropping below 3,500 last Wednesday.
刘煜辉表示，中国证监会此举“应该在股指介于3000点和4000点之间时就完成”。上证综指(Shanghai Composite)在6月12日触及5179点的顶峰，上周三则跌破3500点水平。
The effect of the CSRC’s action has been swift. Xunqianwang, a Shanghai-based online fund-matching company whose Chinese name translates to “Search for Money Net”, told clients the CSRC’s action had forced it to quit the business. Miniu98.com, a peer-to-peer fund-matching company, made a similar announcement yesterday.
中国证监会的行动很快产生了影响。总部位于上海的在线配资公司“寻钱网”通知客户，证监会的举动已迫使其退出股票配资借款业务。P2P配资公司“米牛”(miniu98.com)昨日发表了类似的公告。
Analysts agree the crackdown is necessary to prevent excessive risk-taking and increase transparency. In the short term, however, it could cut off a source of liquidity to the market, just as Chinese stocks have begun to regain their footing with the help of a ban on selling by big shareholders and hundreds of billions of renminbi in government funds.
分析师们同意，这一打击是必要的，它有助于增加透明度，防止过度冒险。但就短期而言，它可能会在中国股市刚开始回暖之际掐断一部分流动性。支撑中国股市回暖的是禁止大股东售股和政府投入数千亿元人民币资金。
CSRC even suggested on Sunday that grey-market margin lending had contributed to the recovery of stock prices late last week. “In recent days, as the market has regained stability, these illegal practices have staged a comeback,” the agency said. The official China Securities Journal similarly reported last week that banks had restarted umbrella trusts in response to demand from investors hoping to bet on a rebound.
中国证监会上周日甚至暗示，灰色市场的保证金贷款对上周晚些时候的股价复苏作出了贡献。“近日随着市场回稳，这些违法现象又出现了卷土重来的势头，”该机构表示。官方的《中国证券报》上周发表了类似报道，称一些银行已重启伞形信托，以回应投资者希望押注股市反弹的需求。
The market extended its gains yesterday, suggesting that so far the restriction on grey-market funding has not hindered the recovery. But analysts say the CSRC will seek to strike a balance between encouraging fund inflows in the short term and promoting deleveraging over the medium term.
中国股市昨日延续涨势，似乎表明限制灰色市场资金的措施迄今尚未妨碍股市复苏。但分析师们表示，中国证监会将力求在鼓励短期资金流入和促进中期去杠杆化之间达到恰当平衡。
“It’s like a flood on the riverbanks,” says Zhang Qi of Haitong Securities in Shanghai. “If the water surges to a high level, you can’t channel it away all at once. If the water retreats too fast, it may wash away the lowlands.”
“这就像洪水冲击河岸，”上海海通证券(Haitong Securities)的张琪表示。“如果水位突然涨得很高，你不能一下子把这些水都引向别处。如果水退得太快，它可能会冲刷低地。”
This approach explains why, even as it clamps down on grey-market margin lenders, the CSRC recently loosened rules on brokerage margin finance into the market. Brokerage margin loans outstanding have fallen sharply from a peak of Rmb2.4tn on June 18 to Rmb1.4tn ($225bn) on Friday.
这种方法解释了中国证监会近日为什么在打击灰色市场保证金贷款的同时，放松了针对券商保证金融资进入市场的规则。融资余额已大幅减少，从6月18日2.4万亿元人民币的峰值降至上周五的1.4万亿元人民币（合2250亿美元）。
This “open the front door, close the back door” approach reflects the important differences between regulated and unregulated margin finance. Since they were not subject to regulation, fund-matching companies permitted higher leverage and lower barriers to entry. While brokerages offer two renminbi in credit for every one renminbi of the client’s own money, Xunqianwang offered investors leverage as high as six to one.
这种“开前门，关后门”的做法，体现了有监管和无监管保证金融资之间的重要区别。由于不受监管，配资公司允许较高的杠杆率和较低的进入门槛。券商提供两倍于客户自有资金的信贷，而“寻钱网”之前向投资者提供高达六倍的杠杆率。
Higher leverage meant stock prices did not have to fall far to trigger forced selling. At a 2:1 leverage ratio, stocks could fall by a third before hitting mandatory stop-loss thresholds. At 6:1, the trigger may be only 14 per cent.
较高的杠杆率意味着，股价不需要大幅下跌，就会触发强制抛售。若杠杆率为2：1，股价可能要下跌三分之一，才会触及强制性的止损门槛。若杠杆率为6：1，股价下跌14%就可能触及门槛。
Haitong estimates that Rmb500bn-Rmb1tn in margin funds have flowed into the market outside regulated channels, on top of the Rmb2.3tn in normal margin loans from brokerages.
据海通证券估算，在监管渠道以外已有5000亿至1万亿元人民币的保证金资金流入股市，而券商提供的正常保证金贷款总计达到2.3万亿元人民币。
Regulators have also turned their attention to technical developments that enabled the margin boom. Most fund-matching companies relied on a cloud-based software program called Homs, developed by Hundsun Technologies, a financial technology company whose largest shareholder is Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba.
监管者们也将注意力转向促成保证金热潮的技术发展。多数配资公司依赖基于云计算的软件程序Homs，这款软件是由金融科技公司恒生电子(Hundsun Technologies)开发的，而该公司的最大股东是阿里巴巴(Alibaba)创始人马云(Jack Ma)。
The CSRC did not mention Hundsun or Homs by name but the agency clearly had Homs in mind when it warned brokerages to verify the true identities of those trading through their accounts.
中国证监会并未点恒生电子或Homs的名，但该机构在警告券商核实通过其账户进行交易的人的真实身份时，显然想的是Homs。
Hundsun defended itself from accusations that its product had contributed to the stock market bust. “It’s not objective or rational to say Homs was the major force of the stock market turmoil,” the company said.
针对有关其产品加剧股市大跌的指控，恒生电子为自己作了辩护。“说Homs是导致股市震荡的主要力量是不客观、不理性的，”该公司表示。