Royal Dutch Shell’s £55bn bid for BG Group faces any number of hurdles, including volatile oil prices and the risk of a counterbid, but the biggest of all may prove to be what one competition lawyer calls the “black box” that is China’s Ministry of Commerce, the country’s opaque antitrust regulator.
荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)出价550亿英镑收购英国天然气集团(BG Group)的交易将面临许多障碍，包括油价波动以及其他公司竞购的风险，但最大障碍或许将是一位反垄断律师所说的“黑箱”——不透明的反垄断监管机构中国商务部。
Regulatory scrutiny of the deal — the biggest in the energy sector for more than a decade — will take months. Competition authorities in Australia, Brazil, China and Brussels are among those expected to examine the size and reach of the combined company, which is set to be the world’s biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas.
对于这笔10多年来能源业中规模最大的交易，监管机构的审查将持续数月。预计澳大利亚、巴西、中国和欧盟等地的竞争监管当局都将审查合并后公司的规模和影响。两家公司合并后将成为世界最大液化天然气(LNG)供应商。

Some could wave it through with minimum fuss. For the European Commission, traditionally more sensitive to the impact on prices for consumers, the BG takeover is regarded as unlikely to raise the concerns that a “downstream” merger, between say Shell and BP, might.
一些竞争监管当局可能痛快放行。欧盟委员会(European Commission)传统上对消费者终端价格所受的影响更为敏感，BG收购案被认为不太可能引发“下游”并购案——比如壳牌和英国石油(BP)——可能引发的那种忧虑。
But for Beijing, a big LNG importer, the combination will pose a different set of questions, particularly over security of supply and the impact on heavy industry.
但对中国这样的液化天然气进口大国来说，壳牌和BG的合并将带来截然不同的一系列问题，尤其是在供应安全和对重工业的影响方面。
With LNG deliveries of 45m tonnes last year, Shell and BG already account for almost 20 per cent of the global market — BG alone was poised to become China’s biggest LNG supplier by 2017. Another 20m tonnes a year in liquefaction capacity is expected to come online by 2018.
去年壳牌和BG合计输送了4500万吨液化天然气，占全球市场近20%的份额——其中BG已经定好目标，争取在2017年成为中国最大的液化天然气供应商。到2018年，二者的液化天然气产能有望再提高2000万吨。
China has long applied wider criteria to competition tests, taking in industrial policy. Moreover, its approval process is known to be unpredictable. As a result, lawyers say, the Ministry of Commerce — known as Mofcom — is the biggest uncertainty surrounding the deal.
长期以来，中国在竞争审查方面应用的标准较为宽泛，并将行业政策纳入考虑。此外，其审批过程被认为不可预测。因此，律师们表示中国商务部将是这笔交易中最大的不确定因素。
China could well approve the takeover, but demand concessions first, as it did with the $64bn natural resources merger between Glencore and Xstrata two years ago.
中国很可能批准这起收购案，但会要求对方首先做出让步，就如两年前中国批准自然资源领域价值640亿美元的并购案——嘉能可(Glencore)和斯特拉塔(Xstrata)——那样。
“The Chinese have got them over a barrel,” says one senior oil industry executive. “I would be astonished if there is not a request to sell one of their grade one LNG assets.”
“它们受到中国的牵制，”一位资深石油行业高管说，“如果中国没有要求它们出售一处优质液化天然气资产，我会感到非常惊讶。”
Beijing cleared the Glencore-Xstrata deal only after the trading house agreed to sell the Las Bambas mining project in Peru to assuage Chinese concerns about the enlarged group’s influence in the copper market. The eventual buyers were a group of Chinese companies led by Minmetals.
北京批准嘉能可和斯特拉塔并购案的前提条件是嘉能可同意出售秘鲁的拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)铜矿项目，以消除中国对合并后公司在铜市场上影响力过大的担忧。最终该项目卖给了以中国五矿(Minmetals)为首的一批中国企业。
Competition lawyers also point to Mofcom demanding “behavioural remedies” before approving mergers. One recent example came in Thermo Fisher Scientific’s $13.6bn acquisition of Life Technologies. China asked for price reductions on certain products and commitments on supply, as well as requiring the sale of businesses.
反垄断律师还指出中国商务部会在批准并购案前要求“行为补偿”。最近的一个例子是赛默飞世尔科技(Thermo Fisher Scientific)斥资136亿美元收购Life Technologies的交易。中国要求它们下调一些产品的价格、做出供应承诺及出售一些业务。
Shell and BG will be an LNG behemoth. Assuming no asset sales, the combined group will have an unrivalled mix of equity production — including in Qatar, Oman, Russia, Malaysia, Brunei, Australia, Peru, Trinidad and Nigeria — supply contracts, trading positions and transport. It also has significant capacity to convert supercooled LNG back into gas.
壳牌和BG将成为液化天然气行业的巨擘。假设不出售资产，二者合并后的公司将拥有无可匹敌的供应合约、交易头寸、运输能力以及权益产能——分布在卡塔尔、阿曼、俄罗斯、马来西亚、文莱、澳大利亚、秘鲁，特立尼达和多巴哥及尼日利亚等多个地方。合并后公司还具备将超冷液化天然气重新转换为天然气的巨大产能。
“The deal creates by far the biggest LNG producer in the world, combining the first and the fifth by market share,” says Ed Cox, ‎editor of Global LNG Markets at ICIS, which provides pricing information and market analysis.
安迅思(ICIS)《全球液化天然气市场》主编埃德•考克斯(Ed Cox)说：“这一交易将市场份额分别为第一名和第五名的两家公司合并到一起，打造出世界上规模最大的液化天然气生产商。”安迅思是价格信息和市场分析提供商。
Scale will be an advantage. “In a market where there is a lot of new production appearing, Shell-BG is better placed. It will have a greater geographical reach and access to more vessels, which means shorter distances for delivery. The proximity to buyers will be an advantage . . . whoever can capture the best margins will be king,” he says.
规模将是个优势。他说：“在一个新产能不断出现的市场中，壳牌-BG处于有利地位。合并后的新公司将覆盖更广地理范围，拥有更多可用船只，这意味着运输距离将缩短。靠近买家将是个优势……能够获取最优利润率的公司将成为王者。”
Indeed, that thinking appears to be a driver behind the deal. Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, wants to cut costs — and create value — by combining the two groups’ shipping operations and LNG trading platforms. Its ability to improve margins will be crucial as the LNG industry becomes more of a “spot” market, says Thierry Bros, analyst for Société Générale. In the longer run, success could give Shell-BG influence over how the market develops.
事实上，上述想法似乎就是产生这桩交易的动机。壳牌首席执行官范伯登(Ben van Beurden)希望通过合并两家公司的船运业务和液化天然气交易平台来削减成本、创造价值。法国兴业银行(Société Générale)分析师蒂埃里•布罗斯(Thierry Bros)表示，天然气行业正日益成为一个“现货”市场，因此该公司提高利润率的能力将至关重要。长远而言，假如能够做到这一点，壳牌-BG将拥有左右市场走向的能力。
“They can’t dictate prices at the moment. But if the oil indexation link [long-term supply contracts linked to the price of oil] is broken, then the largest producers will have the biggest say and dictate the course the market takes,” says one Australia-based LNG analyst.
一名驻澳大利亚的液化天然气分析师表示：“眼下他们无法左右价格。但假如（将远期供应合同与油价联系起来的）石油指数化联系断裂，那么最大的生产商将拥有最大话语权，能够左右市场走向。”
China will be weighing the implications of the merged company’s size and potential pricing power. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a mix of behavioural and capacity divestiture. That could entail, for example, some sort of undertaking by the merged Shell-BG not to increase prices for Chinese customers,” says a lawyer.
中国将权衡合并后新公司规模和潜在定价权的影响。一名律师说：“假如出现一些行为和产能方面的限制，我不会感到惊讶。这可能会导致一些结果，比如合并后的壳牌-BG做出某种形式的保证，确保不提高中国消费者所需支付的价格。”
Mofcom declined to comment. The ministry usually makes recommendations for any asset sell-offs based on feedback from Chinese state-owned enterprises. BG’s existing gas partnerships with Cnooc and Shell’s global upstream co-operation with CNPC could make the approval process smoother.
中国商务部拒绝置评。通常而言，该部门会根据一些中国国企的反馈意见就资产出售提出建议。BG与中海油(Cnooc)已有的天然气业务合作关系、以及壳牌与中国石油天然气集团(CNPC)在全球上游业务的合作，可能会有助于这起合并交易在中国商务部较为顺利地获批。
The process will begin when Shell and BG formally notify Beijing of the deal. This starts a 180-day clock, with up to three phases to the review. Unlike other authorities, though, Mofcom offers very little informal guidance. It can take a long time replying to the simplest questions and demand meetings “at the drop of a hat”, says one lawyer.
审批流程将从壳牌和BG正式向北京方面申报这一交易那一刻开始。审批时限为180天，最多分三个阶段。不过，与其他监管当局不同，中国商务部很少提供什么非正式指导意见。一名律师说，中国商务部回复最简单的问题也可能要花很长时间，并且会要求“马上”面谈。
“The problem with Mofcom is a lack of transparency. It’s very difficult to know what is going on or get a steer from them,” adds another. Long-running probes have led in the past to companies pulling and refiling merger plans.
另一名律师说：“中国商务部的问题是缺乏透明度。很难知道事情进展如何，也很难从他们那里得到指导。”旷日持久的调查在以往曾导致企业不得不取消合并计划、或重新提交申请。
Mr van Beurden is taking no chances: he has already flown to China to outline the deal. Shell says: “The deal is pro-competitive. While we expect the usual thorough and professional review by the relevant antitrust and other regulatory authorities, we are confident that the deal will receive the necessary approvals.”
范伯登丝毫不敢大意：他已飞往中国指导该交易。壳牌表示：“这笔交易是促进竞争的。尽管我们预计相关反垄断机构和其他监管当局会照例进行彻底而专业的调查，但我们有信心这笔交易将获得必要的批准。”