HONG KONG — Ordinary Chinese investors are doubling down on stocks, pushing the Shanghai market to seven-year highs — and their brokers are cashing in.
香港——中国的普通投资者纷纷增加股票投资，将上海股市的行情推高到了七年来的最高水平——他们的经纪公司也赚得钵满盆满。
The securities companies that have facilitated the stock market boom are capitalizing on their own ballooning share prices by issuing huge amounts of new stock, raising billions of dollars in the process.
这些促成了股市繁荣的证券公司，趁着自身股价不断上涨的时机，发行了大量新股，进而募集了数十亿美元的资金。
On Tuesday, GF Securities, one of China’s biggest brokerage firms, raised $3.6 billion in an initial public offering in Hong Kong, the biggest new listing in Asia so far this year.
周二，中国最大的券商之一广发证券在香港上市，募集了36亿美元资金，成为了亚洲今年到目前为止规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)。
Earlier in March, Orient Securities, Citigroup’s brokerage partner in mainland China, raised $1.6 billion in a Shanghai listing. And in February, shareholders of Haitong Securities, another big Chinese brokerage firm, approved its plan to raise $3.9 billion by selling additional shares in Hong Kong.
3月早些时候，花旗集团(Citigroup)在中国大陆的券商伙伴东方证券在上海上市，募集了16亿美元。2月，另一家中国大型券商海通证券的股东，通过了在香港增发股票募集39亿美元的方案。
Many analysts see a bubble in China’s share rally. Stocks are rising even as the economy grows at its slowest pace in decades, and more people are piling into the market. Investors opened a record 1.7 million new share-trading accounts last week. Increasingly, they are turning to margin financing, or borrowing money from brokerage firms to buy stocks — raising the risk of even steeper losses for ordinary investors if the boom goes bust.
许多分析师认为，中国目前的股市上涨存在泡沫。股市上涨的同时，中国经济增速降到了数十年来的最低水平，此外越来越多的人在涌入股市。上周，中国新增股市开户数达170万，创下了历史新高。他们越来越多地转向融资融券，即从券商那里借钱购买股票。这加剧了一种风险：股市的繁荣消退后，普通股民会蒙受更巨大的损失。
The problem with bubbles is anticipating how much they can swell before bursting. Chinese investors appear to be making a counterintuitive bet that a slowing economy is good for markets because it will prompt the leadership in Beijing to respond with measures to stimulate growth. On Monday, in an effort to bolster the slumping housing market, the central bank lowered the minimum down payment on mortgages for second homes to 40 percent, from 60 percent or 70 percent previously, causing a surge in real estate shares.
泡沫的问题在于，破裂之前预计能膨胀到何种程度。中国投资者似乎不同寻常地认为，经济放缓对股市有利，因为它将促使北京的领导层采取刺激增长的措施。周一，为了提振低迷的楼市，央行将贷款购买二套房的首付比例从60%或70%降到了40%。
“The sharp drop-off in economic activity since the start of the year, along with lower inflation, will encourage greater action from the People’s Bank of China over the coming months,” Chang Liu, a China economist at Capital Economics, wrote Tuesday in a research report, referring to the central bank. “This will most likely push equities even higher this year,” he added. “However, with markets increasingly divorced from economic fundamentals, we expect a partial reversal of these gains in 2016.”
“自年初以来经济活动急剧放缓，加上通胀水平下降，将促使中国人民银行在未来几个月采取更大的行动，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的中国经济分析师Chang Liu周二在一份研究报告中写道。中国人民银行即中国央行。“这很有可能在今年把股价推得更高，”他接着说。“不过，随着股市与经济基本面逐渐分离，我们预计这些涨幅在2016年会出现部分回落。”
Shanghai’s benchmark share index was the best performer in the world last year. And since Nov. 21, when the central bank began its current cycle of easing monetary policy by cutting interest rates, Shanghai stocks have risen 50 percent. On Monday, the index rose to 3,786.6 points, a level not seen since early 2008, before the financial crisis. Shares slipped 1 percent lower on Tuesday.
去年，上海的基准股指是全世界表现最好的。去年11月21日，央行降低利率，开启了当前这一轮宽松的货币政策。自那时以来，上海股市已上涨了50%。周一，股指攀升至3786.6点，这是金融危机前的2008年年初以来的最高点。周二，股指下滑1%。
The surge is precarious because it is increasingly being driven by ordinary investors. According to Tom Orlik, a Bloomberg economist, the results of a recent investment survey conducted by a Chinese university showed that two-thirds of all new investors in China’s stock markets had completed only the equivalent of elementary or junior high school before leaving school. That compared with a dropout rate of about a quarter among existing investors. The survey was conducted at the end of last year by the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, in Sichuan Province, and covered 4,000 households across the country.
此次大涨的基础并不稳固，因为它越来越多地受到普通投资者的支撑。彭博(Bloomberg)的经济学家欧乐鹰(Tom Orlik)称，中国一所大学前不久进行的一项投资调查的结果显示，中国股市的投资新手中，三分之二的人仅完成了相当于小学或初中的学业，就离开了校园。与之形成对比的是，现有投资者中的辍学率约为四分之一。调查是由位于四川省的西南财经大学在去年年底进行的，覆盖全国4000个家庭。
China’s securities regulator has recently sought to crack down on market manipulation and curtail the excesses of the rally. In January, it announced a temporary ban on new margin financing at several of the country’s biggest brokerage firms, sending shares plunging.
近期，中国的证券监管机构尝试打击市场操纵，遏制行情的过度上涨。今年1月，该机构宣布了一项临时禁令，禁止中国最大的几家证券公司开展新的融资融券业务，致使股票骤跌。
But markets have since recovered, and borrowing from brokerage firms continues to fuel the increase. Outstanding margin financing has risen to more than 1.4 trillion renminbi, or about $230 billion, up from about 1 trillion renminbi at the start of the year.
但后来行情已经回升，从证券公司借款的做法依然在推动股票上涨。融资融券余额已经从年初的大约1万亿元人民币，增至逾1.4万亿元。
That has been good news to brokerage firms, whose own shares are among the best performers in the rally. GF Securities, which is already listed in China’s secondary market based in Shenzhen, was able to price its Hong Kong I.P.O. on Tuesday at 18.85 Hong Kong dollars per share, at the top of the marketed price range, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who declined to be identified because the information was not yet public.
对证券公司来说，这是个好消息。在这一轮回升中，表现最好的股票中就有它们自己的股票。据一名知情人士透露，周二，已经在深圳的中国二级市场上市的广发证券，成功地将香港IPO的发行价定在18.85港元，这是其价格区间的上限。因为消息尚未公开，该人士拒绝公开身份。
The company raised 27.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about $3.6 billion. That ranks as the second-biggest I.P.O. globally this year, after that of the Spanish airport operator Aena, which raised around $4.8 billion in a listing in Madrid in February, according to data from the financial information provider Dealogic.
该公司筹集到了279亿港币，约合36亿美元。这个数字使这笔交易成为今年全球规模第二大的IPO，仅次于西班牙的机场运营商Aena。金融信息供应商Dealogic的数据显示，Aena今年2月在马德里上市时，筹集到了大约48亿美元。
GF Securities shares are scheduled to begin trading on April 10.
广发证券的股票定于4月10日开始交易。
GF Capital, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bocom International, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit were the lead underwriters of the listing and were among the 22 banks involved in marketing the deal.
广发融资(GF Capital)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、交银国际、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)和美银美林(Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch)是此次上市的主承销商。包括它们在内的22家银行参与了销售。