The economic equivalent of “famous for being famous” is the idea of a rise in confidence because of a policy whose main transmission channel is confidence. The discussion about quantitative easing is precisely this. It is as self-referential as the statement that it works because it works.
“因为出名，所以出名”在经济学上相当于以信心为主要传导通道的政策所带来的信心增强。关于量化宽松的讨论正是如此。它就好比说“因为奏效，所以奏效”，是一种自我强化。

An example of such circularity was the forecast by the European Central Bank this month, which predicts a solid economic recovery in 2016 and 2017 on the grounds that QE would work.
这种循环论证的一个例子，是欧洲央行(ECB)本月发布的预测报告：在量化宽松奏效的基础之上，2016年和2017年经济将稳定复苏。
The forecast even suggested that inflation would rise close to the central bank’s target of just under 2 per cent within the next two years. Since the declared rationale for the ECB’s purchase of sovereign bonds was to raise inflation expectations, one might conclude that the programme was already working. What makes this even more amazing is that the ECB had not bought a single bond at the time. The only thing that changed is that everybody was suddenly more confident — because everybody else was.
欧洲央行还在预测报告中指出，在接下来的两年中，通胀率将上升至接近其设定的略低于2%的目标。由于欧洲央行宣称购买主权债券的出发点是提高通胀预期，人们可能会得出该计划已经开始奏效的结论。而更令人惊讶的是，欧洲央行那时还未曾购买任何债券。唯一发生的改变是，每个人突然变得更有信心了——原因是其他人都变得更有信心了。
Back in the real economy, this is what really happened: as the world’s largest net importer of oil and gas, the eurozone economy enjoyed a windfall from a falling oil price — an effect that was immediate and large, but prone to dissipating quickly. Think of it as a lottery win.
回到实体经济当中，真相是这样的：作为全球最大的石油和天然气净进口地区，欧元区经济享受了油价下跌带来的意外横财——油价下跌的效果立竿见影、范围广但又容易迅速消散，就像彩票中奖一样。
The second factual change has been the fall in the euro’s exchange rate. It is debatable to what extent this is due to QE. In any case, the effect is sizeable but not as big as widely suggested. What matters for the real economy is not the nominal exchange rate, but the currency’s trade-weighted real exchange rate. This fell by about 10 per cent [TRADE-WEIGHTED FELL? IF SO A 10PC FALL IS NOT BAD, NO?]between February 2014 and February 2015, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The exchange rate matters less for the eurozone than for most countries as it is a relatively closed economy. It largely trades with itself.
第二个确凿的改变是欧元汇率的下跌。量化宽松在其中起了多大作用还有待商榷。不管怎样，量化宽松的确起到了很大的影响，但并不如人们普遍认为得那么大。对实体经济来说，重要的不是名义汇率，而是货币的贸易加权实际汇率。根据国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据，从2014年2月到2015年2月间，欧元贸易加权实际汇率下跌了约10%。对于欧元区来说，汇率并不像对大多数国家那么重要，因为欧元区是一个相对封闭的经济体，贸易基本上是在内部进行的。
A third positive change, though relatively minor so far, has been a very slow improvement in bank lending. And finally, fiscal policy is still tight[DITTO], though marginally less so than a year ago. A combination of all of those [ALL OF THESE FACTORS OR JUST THE LAST TWO?]has temporarily pushed the growth rate up to about an annualised 1.5 per cent. But remember, this was due to the equivalent to a lottery win. You have to win every year to repeat this unless something real happens that changes the ­trajectory of your growth performance.
第三个积极的改变是银行信贷状况极为缓慢的好转，尽管目前来看这种影响相对较小。最后，财政政策依然紧缩，尽管与1年前相比略有宽松。以上所有因素结合在一起，才暂时将欧元区增长年率推高到大约1.5%的水平。但是别忘了，这源于等同于彩票中奖的事件。你必须每年都中奖才能再现这种增长，除非有一些切实的事情改变了增长表现的轨迹。
Could QE deliver something real? In the US, one of the most important channels through which QE worked was the mortgage finance market. It helped revive the housing market — yet even there, it did not have a very big impact on inflation. [ EXPLAIN WHY THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN A GOAL?]
量化宽松能带来切实的改变吗？在美国，量化宽松生效的最重要通道之一是抵押贷款融资市场。它曾帮助促进了房地产市场的复苏——然而即便在美国，量化宽松对通胀也并无太大影响。
In the main eurozone countries the system of mortgage finance is completely different. Nor will QE lower the funding costs for the corporate sector where traditional banking remains dominant. Also, the programme is small. The Irish economist Karl Whelan https://medium.com/bull-market/the-puny-fiscal-effects-of-european-qe-48f515202aab concluded that the ECB will end up buying only 6 per cent of the stock of outstanding eurozone sovereign debt. [COMPARED WITH XXX]The UK programme was between four and five times larger, relative to the size of the stock of government debt. One reason the ECB’s bond purchase programme is so small is that bond prices are already high.
在主要的欧元区国家，抵押贷款融资体系与美国完全不同。而在传统银行体系占据主导地位的企业部门，量化宽松也不会降低它们的融资成本。此外，欧洲量化宽松计划的规模很小。爱尔兰经济学家卡尔•惠兰(Karl Whelan)的结论是，欧洲央行最终仅会购买欧元区未偿付主权债务存量的6%。以与政府债务存量规模的比率来衡量，英国量化宽松计划的规模要大4到5倍。欧洲央行的债券购买计划规模如此之小的一个原因是，债券价格已经很高。
The biggest positive impact will be the implicit commitment [???EXPLAIN]to low interest rates for as long as the programme lasts. It would make no sense for a central bank to raise rates for as long as it buys assets, the goal of which after all is to lower market interest rates. The ECB will therefore not raise interest rates until at least September 2016.
最大的积极影响将是在量化宽松政策存续期间将利率保持在低位的隐性承诺。只要央行还要购买资产，就没有理由加息，因为央行购买资产归根结底是为了降低市场利率。因此，至少到2016年9月，欧洲央行都不会加息。
The second is the exchange rate, but it is not clear that this effect will be permanent. The third is what is known as the “portfolio rebalancing” channel — the idea that the people who sell bonds to the ECB will need to put their money elsewhere, such as the real economy.
第二个影响是汇率，但目前还不清楚对汇率的影响能否持续下去。第三个影响是所谓的“资产组合再平衡”通道——这种想法认为，将债权出售给欧洲央行的人们需要把资金放在别的地方，比如实体经济。
At this point we are starting to scrape the barrel. Confidence is not an independent channel of its own, but a factor in all economic activity. Beware of any comparisons with the famous commitment in 2012 of ECB president Mario Draghi to support the euro whatever it takes. A large economy is not like a bond market. There is real stuff going on.
至此我们就开始使出最后一招儿了。信心本身并不是一个独立的通道，而是所有经济活动中的一个因素。要警惕任何把当前计划与欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)2012年做出的著名承诺进行比较的想法。当时德拉吉表示要不惜一切代价支撑欧元。大型经济体不像债券市场。经济体中运行着实实在在的东西。
Investors will only invest in plant and machinery if they see a rise in demand. Consumers will only consume more if they see their future income and purchasing power rising. Exporters will undoubtedly benefit from the lower exchange rate, but may not invest the gains inside the eurozone. The link between a government buying bonds and a company in Sicily creating local jobs is long, indirect and uncertain.
投资者只有看到需求上升，才会投资建造工厂和购买机器。消费者只有看到未来收入和购买力上升，才会更多地消费。出口商无疑会受益于更低的汇率，但他们可能不会将收益投到欧元区内部。从政府购买债券到西西里的一家公司为当地创造就业，这两者之间的链条很长，并无直接或确定的关联。
The truth is that we just do not know the impact of QE until we collect evidence of how the policy transmits to the real economy. Until that happens, or until other hard evidence emerges, it would be wise to keep an open mind on QE and treat the economic recovery as a largely statistical phenomenon.
真相是，我们只有收集到量化宽松如何传导到实体经济中的证据，才能获知该政策到底有何效果。在此之前，或者有其他确凿证据出现之前，明智的做法将是对量化宽松持开放态度，并且把经济复苏当做一种主要是统计因素造成的现象。