(单词翻译:单击)
Wall Street's big year of deal-making may have ended early — after peaking on the morning of Sept. 19.
在9月19日上午达到巅峰之后,华尔街在撮合交易方面斩获颇丰的一年或许已经提早结束了。
It was then that the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba went public with a valuation of more than $168 billion. Eight minutes later, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index hit an all-time high. Earlier that week, several big acquisitions were announced.
那一天,中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴(Alibaba)上市,其市值超过1680亿美元(约合1万亿元人民币)。八分钟后,标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500)创下历史新高。在同一周的早些时候,华尔街还宣布了另外几项重大并购。
Now, less than a month later, September's exuberance feels like a distant memory.
如今,过了不到一个月的时间,9月的繁盛景象仿佛已经成了遥远的回忆。
The S.&P. 500 has fallen more than 7 percent. Alibaba still trades above its offer price, but other initial public offerings have been shelved for now. Merger and acquisition announcements have slowed.
标普500指数下挫超过7%。阿里巴巴的股价仍然高于发行价,但其他企业首次公开募股(IPO)的计划目前已被搁置。并购交易的宣布也不再那么频繁。
"If we get a lot more volatility and there's a significant correction, there's a real risk that deals could get pulled," said Mark G. Shafir, co-head of global mergers and acquisitions at Citigroup.
花旗集团(Citigroup)全球并购业务联席主管马克·G·沙菲尔 (Mark G. Shafir)说,“如果出现了幅度大得多的波动,之后又有显著的调整,那么的确会有交易受到抑制的切实风险。”
All year, the stock markets have advanced, initial public offerings have boomed, and mergers and acquisitions have roared back to their highest levels since the financial crisis.
在这一年中,股市行情不断上涨,IPO活跃,并购交易回升至金融危机以来的最高水平。
The more than $1.3 trillion in announced mergers and acquisitions so far this year in the United States is the highest amount on record, according to Dealogic, fueled by megadeals like Comcast's $45 billion purchase of Time Warner Cable and Medtronic's $43 billion deal for Covidien. The more than $81 billion in I.P.O.s is the most since 2000, the height of the dot-com boom, led by the Alibaba offering.
Dealogic数据显示,今年到目前为止,在多宗重大并购交易的推动下,美国的并购交易金额超过了1.3万亿美元,达到历史最高水平。例如,康卡斯特(Comcast)出资450亿美元收购时代华纳有线电视公司(Time Warner Cable),美敦力(Medtronic)出资430亿美元收购柯惠医疗(Covidien)。在阿里巴巴上市的拉动下,IPO交易总值超过810亿美元,成了网络股最为繁荣的2000年以来,规模最大的一年。
In a few short days, however, much of that optimism has evaporated. Bankers across Wall Street say that deals on the verge of being announced are suddenly delayed. I.P.O.s set for this week and next are postponed indefinitely. And the confidence that had fueled record levels of deal-making is nowhere to be found.
但在短短几天后,这种乐观情绪在很大程度上就消失了。华尔街的银行从业者表示,那些即将宣布的交易突然被推迟。原定于本周或下周进行的IPO都被无限期推迟。那种促成创纪录交易的信心也已经不见了。
"When you're buying and selling companies, you need stability in the markets," said Michael Carr, head of Americas M.&A. for Goldman Sachs. "It doesn't take much for stocks to get out of alignment, and that's what is going on right now."
“你在购买和出售公司的时候,需要市场保持稳定,”高盛(Goldman Sachs)美洲并购业务主管迈克尔·卡尔(Michael Carr)说。“股市很容易出现波动,现在就是这种情况。”
The sustained run of mergers and acquisitions is particularly vulnerable to suddenly volatile markets, several senior investment bankers said. A majority of the deals announced this year have involved at least partial payment in stock.
几名资深投资银行家表示,并购案的持续开展特别容易受到市场突然波动的影响。今年公布的交易中,多数交易的付款手段都包括一部分股票。
"Unlike on the trading side of the business, volatility is not our friend in M.&A.," Mr. Shafir noted.
沙菲尔指出,“与交易业务不同,对于并购业务来说,波动并不是什么好事。”
When the acquirer's stock suddenly loses value, what was once an economical deal can suddenly seem unaffordable. Similarly, when a company that was poised to sell sees its stock fall, executives often want to wait for the stock price to recover before selling to get the best possible price.
当收购方的股价突然下跌时,曾经非常划算的交易,就会突然变得无法承受。同样地,当一家准备出售的公司看到股价下跌时,管理人员通常希望等到股价回升后再出售,以便卖出尽可能高的价格。
"A good M.&A. market happens when both parties are comfortable with the relative relationships between their two stocks," Mr. Carr said. "That relationship is a really narrow and sensitive band."
“当双方都对彼此股票的相对关系感到满意时,才能做成一笔好买卖,”卡尔说。“这是一个很敏感也很窄的区间。”
But with companies' valuations jumping around, many deals are expected to be delayed until the markets stabilize.
但由于公司市值不断波动,很多交易都将推迟到行情稳定后再进行。
For companies seeking to go public, the roller coaster markets are similarly disruptive.
对于寻求上市的公司,这种过山车般的行情同样具有破坏性。
"The market is taking a breath, and therefore the I.P.O. market will also take a breath," said David Hermer, global head of equity capital markets at Credit Suisse. "Issuers are standing on the sideline for the moment."
“市场正在喘气,所以IPO市场也要喘口气,”瑞信(Credit Suisse)股权资本市场的全球负责人戴维·赫尔默(David Hermer)说。“目前,打算上市的企业正在场外观望。”
In Europe, a handful of planned I.P.O.s were withdrawn in the last two weeks, including those of the British bank Aldermore, the Italian cosmetics company Intercos, the French energy services company Spie, and the Italian technology company Italiaonline.
在欧洲,过去两周,若干宗计划中的IPO已被撤回,这些公司包括英国银行Aldermore、意大利化妆品公司莹特丽(Intercos)、法国能源服务公司Spie,以及意大利科技公司Italiaonline。
With renewed fears of an economic slowdown in Europe, sustained unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine, and swelling fears of Ebola around the globe, the markets may not stage a strong recovery anytime soon.
欧洲经济的减速、中东和乌克兰的持续动荡,以及全球各地对埃博拉病毒的日益恐慌,再次引发了人们的担忧,市场可能不会在近期内出现强势反弹。
"There's a lot of stuff going on the world right now," said Neil Dhar, United States capital markets leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers. "Volatility is not the friend of an I.P.O. It creates a lot of angst in the marketplace."
“目前,世界上正在发生各种事情,”普华永道(PricewaterhouseCoopers)的美国资本市场负责人尼尔·达尔(Neil Dhar)说。“不稳定性对IPO没有好处。它会让人对市场产生许多担心。”
And still, many deal makers said they believed that the underlying conditions for mergers, acquisitions and I.P.O.s remained healthy. Investors are looking for growth, which leads to deals and new public offerings. And companies have lots of cash to spend.
不过,很多交易撮合者仍然表示,他们认为对于并购和IPO来说,基本的情况仍然是健康的。投资者在寻找增长,而这种期望会促成交易和新的IPO。而且很多企业还有许多现金可以花。
"A one or two week up-and-down in the marketplace isn't going to change global M.&A. activity overnight," Mr. Dhar said. "It's not the sign of a death knell for new issuance through the end of the year."
“一两周的市场起伏不会在一夜之间改变全球的并购活动,”达尔说。“这并不意味着直到年底前,都不能再发行新股了。”
And there are some bright spots.
此外,还有一些令人高兴的事。
Several big breakups and spinoffs, including those of Hewlett-Packard, eBay and Symantec, could lead to activity in the months ahead. Big industrial groups like DuPont and Dow are also expected to sell off business units.
惠普(Hewlett-Packard)、eBay和赛门铁克(Symantec)的几宗拆分和剥离资产的大动作,可能会促使未来几个月出现一些交易活动。根据预期,杜邦(DuPont)和陶氏(Dow)等工业集团可能也会出售一些业务部门。
"In the pipeline there are a huge amount of spinoffs," said Sriram Prakash, global head of M.&A. insight at Deloitte. "Those are likely to keep the M.&A. markets busy."
“还有大量剥离资产的动作等待完成,”德勤(Deloitte)并购研究部门的全球负责人斯里拉姆·普拉卡什(Sriram Prakash)说。“并购市场很可能会因此处于繁忙状态。”
What is more, if stock prices fall precipitously and remain low, some companies may go after targets that suddenly seem affordable.
此外,如果股价暴跌并保持在低水平,有些企业可能就会瞄准那些身价降下来,仿佛突然买得起了的目标。
"Some opportunistic corporate players who have cash and a strong balance sheet may take the opportunity to act in a market when values are down," Mr. Carr said.
卡尔说,“一些手里有现金,而且财务状况良好的投机主义企业,可能会在价格低迷时期抓住机会采取行动。”
Private equity firms, which have largely held back from buying companies this year, might also be emboldened by a sustained dip in corporate valuations.
今年基本未曾收购任何企业的私募股权公司,或许也会因为企业估值的持续下跌而受到鼓舞。
Noting the $18 billion war chest in its possession, the private equity giant Blackstone Group said it would look for opportunities in the market turmoil.
私募股权巨头黑石集团(Blackstone Group)指出,自己拥有180亿美元的资金,也将在市场动荡时期寻找机会。
"We are uniquely positioned to take advantage of market volatility across all of our businesses," Stephen A. Schwarzman, Blackstone's chairman and chief executive, told analysts on Thursday. "With one of the largest pools of dry powder capital, we can and will move quickly to respond to market dislocations. These types of investment environments end up becoming some of our best vintages."
“我们已经做好了特别准备,对业务覆盖领域的市场动荡加以利用,”黑石董事长兼CEO史蒂文·A·施瓦茨曼(Stephen A. Schwarzman)周四告诉分析人士。“我们拥有最大的‘干火药'资金库之一,有能力也有意愿迅速对市场错位做出回应。这些类型的投资环境,最后会成为我们最好的时机。”