The Federal Reserve’s vice-chairman has pointed to weak labour force participation and a soft US housing recovery as two reasons for disappointing global growth, saying this could be a long-term phenomenon.
美联储(Fed)副主席斯坦利•费希尔(Stanley Fischer)指出，低迷的劳动参与率以及美国楼市复苏乏力，是全球经济增长令人失望的两大原因。他表示这种状况可能会长期持续。
Stanley Fischer’s comments reflected continuing concern about the economy that has fuelled debate over whether the Fed should move sooner than expected to raise interest rates, despite solid job growth and strong gross domestic product expansion in the US.
费希尔的评论反映了人们对经济的持续担忧。正是这种担忧令人们对如下问题的争论愈发激烈：考虑到美国就业率和国内生产总值(GDP)的增长都十分强劲，美联储是否应该比预期更早地提高利率。

“This pattern of disappointment and downward revision [in growth] sets up the first, and the basic, challenge on the list of issues policy makers face in moving ahead: restoring growth, if that is possible,” Mr Fischer said on Monday in a speech in Stockholm. “It is also possible that the underperformance reflects a more structural longer-term shift in the global economy, with less growth in underlying supply factors.”
周一在斯德哥尔摩的一次讲话中，费希尔表示：“这种令人失望的状况及（对增长率的）向下修正为决策者带来了首当其冲的根本性挑战。除此以外，这些决策者还面临着恢复增长——如果可能的话——所需解决的其他一系列问题。另外，由于根本性的供给因素的增长率较低，全球经济的低迷状况也可能反映了一种更偏向结构性问题的中长期趋势。”
The US economy has for six straight months added more than 200,000 jobs per month. But the labour force participation rate has remained disappointing, coming in at 62.9 per cent last month.
目前，美国就业岗位已连续第6个月增长超过20万。不过劳动参与率(labour force participation rate)依然令人失望，上个月只有62.9%。
Mr Fischer said although the reduction in the labour supply reflected demographic changes, such as the ageing population, the “surprising weakness” may also be due to discouraged workers who have stopped looking for a job.
费希尔表示，尽管劳动力供应量的减少反映了老龄化之类的人口变化，“令人吃惊的疲软程度”可能更由于许多劳动力因丧失信心而不再找工作。
The Fed recently revealed that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee believed that labour resources were being underutilised and there was more capacity for improvement, which could spur it to wait for more progress in the jobs market before it raises interest rates.
美联储最近披露，联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)相信，美国劳动力资源并未得到充分开发，还有更多提升空间。这可能会令该委员会等到劳动力市场状况更加好转之后才提升利率。
But there is some pressure for the Fed to reconsider its timeline, with Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser being the first to dissent this year in favour of tightening policy because of economic progress. Two weeks ago, the US government reported second quarter GDP growth of 4 per cent, a strong showing.
不过，美联储还面临着改变这一计划的一定压力。费城联邦储备银行(Philadelphia Fed)行长查尔斯•普洛舍(Charles Plosser)就曾在今年第一个对此提出异议。他表示，出于经济发展状况，他更支持收紧货币政策。两周前，据美国政府的报告，美国第二季GDP增长率达到4%，这为这番表态提供了有力证据。
The housing sector also continued to weigh on the recovery, said Mr Fischer, who echoed the concerns of the Fed’s chairwoman, Janet Yellen. Unlike the vigorous rebound in housing activity that followed previous recessions, tighter credit conditions had led to faltering home construction, he added.
费希尔表示，房地产业也在继续为复苏带来压力——这番言论再现了此前美联储主席詹尼特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)的担忧。他补充说，与此前几次经济衰退后，楼市业务出现强劲反弹不同，较为紧缩的信贷状况令眼下的楼盘开工量欲振乏力。
Outside the US, the recoveries of advanced economies had been “well below average”, while performance in emerging markets, especially in Asia, is sharply down. The challenge for policy makers was separating the “cyclical from the structural, the temporary from the permanent,” Mr Fischer said.
而在美国之外，发达经济体的复苏一直“大大低于平均水平”。与此同时，新兴市场的表现也大幅下滑——尤其是亚洲各国。费希尔表示，决策者面临的挑战是要将“周期性危机与结构性危机、临时性危机与永久性危机”区别开来。
“The difficulty in disentangling demand and supply factors makes the job of the monetary policy maker especially hard since it complicates the assessment of the amount of slack, or underutilised productive capacity, in the economy,” he added.
他补充说：“需求与供给因素很难分清楚，从而使货币政策决策者的工作尤为困难，因为这会增大评估美国产能未充分释放程度的复杂性。”
Mr Fischer said he believed the Fed’s quantitative easing policy had been largely successful but monetary policy would become more complicated as the central bank considers its future moves, which will affect the Fed’s balance sheet.
费希尔表示，他相信美联储的量化宽松政策取得了很大成功。然而当美联储开始考虑那些会影响其资产负债表的未来举措时，货币政策会变得更加复杂。
He said raising interest rates for excess reserves should “play a central role” in normalising short-term interest rates, while an overnight reverse repo facility could be useful in setting a floor for money market rates.
他表示，提升超额准备金利率应该在短期利率正常化过程中“起到核心作用”，而隔夜逆回购机制则有可能用来为货币市场利率设置下限。
“With these and other possible tools, we will be able to raise rates and maintain them near their targeted level at the appropriate time,” Mr Fischer said.
费希尔表示：“利用以上工具及其他可能工具，我们将有能力提升利率，并在合适的时间内将它们维持在目标利率附近。”