Sore Ankles and Split Seconds
偶发因素：脚踝疼痛与毫秒之差
A return to U.S. Olympic supremacy would come at a time when the economy is lagging and when Americans are feeling somewhat less than superpower-like. It also arrives in the middle of a presidential race in which both candidates could use the outcome for their benefit: President Obama by noting that the triumph occurred on his watch and Mitt Romney by touting his credentials as the chief of the 2002 Winter Games in Salt Lake City.
如果美国确实在本届奥运会上重新登顶，时间上恰逢国内经济发展缓慢、美国民众感觉本国超级大国地位不比从前。此外，此时也正值美国总统大选期间，两位候选人均可将这个成果为己所用。奥巴马可以说这个胜利是在其任期内赢得的，而米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)则可把他曾担任2002年盐湖城冬奥会组委会主席的资历拿来说事。
Team U.S.A.'s projected success is subject to the whims of world-class athletic competition, of course-an environment where a sore ankle or a few hundredths of a second can make the difference between victory and defeat. Two American swimmers, Phelps and Missy Franklin, could help the U.S. win a dozen gold medals, or they could get the flu and leave empty-handed.
当然，我们所预测的美国的成功要受到世界级比赛中偶发因素的制约。在这样的比赛中，胜败就在于脚踝疼痛这样的事情或者百分之几秒的时间差。比如说，美国游泳运动员菲尔普斯和蜜茜•富兰克林(Missy Franklin)有可能帮助美国获得十几枚金牌，但是万一他们得了流感，结果就是空手而归。
If probability becomes reality, however, a U.S. romp could presage more dominance in the future. The USOC receives no support from the federal government. But nothing gets Americans to reach into their pocketbooks on behalf of the Olympics more than seeing Americans win.
然而，如果我们的预测都成为了现实，美国的成功可能预示着其在未来将更能占据主导地位。美国奥委会不享受联邦政府的任何资助，这时候没有什么事情比看见本国队员获胜更能让美国民众为了奥运而掏腰包了。
'The better we do, the more money we can raise,' says Scott Blackmun, chief executive of the USOC.
“我们的表现越好，就越能募集到更多资金，”美国奥委会首席执行长斯科特•布莱克姆恩(Scott Blackmun)说道。
Olympic improvement tends to come with hosting the Games, as when China soared in 2008. Besides the psychological advantage of competing at home, host countries invest in facilities, coaching and athlete development. China poured money and effort into 'Project 119,' a program to target the 119 potential gold medals in sports where China was traditionally weak, such as swimming, boxing and athletics. The Chinese won 51 gold medals and 100 overall in 2008, up from 28 and 63 in 2004.
奥运会主办国的奥运战绩往往会提高，比如中国在2008年北京奥运会的成绩就大幅提高。除了具有在本土作战的心理优势之外，主办国还会投资基础设施、训练和运动员的培养。中国就对“119工程”投入了大量人力和财力，该工程把目标瞄准了中国传统弱项的119枚金牌上，例如游泳、拳击和田径运动。最终中国在2008年获得了51枚金牌，奖牌总数为100枚，高于2004年的32枚金牌和63枚奖牌。
The British have spent nearly $500 million to fund training and athletic-development programs since 2009. The Journal projects that Team GB, as it is known, will win 22 gold medals and 66 overall this year, a vast improvement from eight years ago, when Britain won nine gold medals and 31 overall.
自2009年以来，英国已花费近5亿美元用以资助训练和运动员培养计划。本报预测，英国代表团将在今年赢取22枚金牌，奖牌总数为66枚。这相比八年前是一个巨大的进步，当时英国只获得九枚金牌，总共获得31枚奖牌。
The U.S. hasn't hosted a Summer Olympics since 1996 and won't host another one until at least 2024. It spends relatively little on athletes. The USOC shells out on average $106.2 million a year to train and treat its winter and summer athletes and maintain its training centers in Colorado Springs, Lake Placid, N.Y., and Chula Vista, Calif.
美国自1996年以来便未举办过夏季奥运会，而且至少要到2024年才有机会举办。美国对运动员的投入相对很少，美国奥委会每年平均提供1.062亿美元用于训练和招待冬季及夏季奥运会的运动员以及维护其位于科罗拉多斯普林斯、纽约州普莱西德湖(Lake Placid)和加州丘拉维斯塔(Chula Vista)的训练中心。
However, while the USOC has the ultimate power of naming the country's Olympic team, it has relatively few resources and athletes under its direct control. The national governing body for each sport, such as USA Track & Field and USA Swimming, is largely responsible for developing future Olympians. In most cases, those groups rely largely on the U.S. collegiate, scholastic and recreational sports systems.
尽管美国奥委会拥有最终选定奥运人选的权力，但是它能够直接控制的资源和运动员非常之少。培养未来的奥运选手主要由每个运动项目的国家管理机构，比如美国田径协会(USA Track & Field)和美国游泳协会(USA Swimming)负责。在大多数情况下，这些组织主要依靠美国的大学、中小学和娱乐运动体系来发掘人才。
During the 2010-11 school year, the latest for which figures are available, U.S. college athletic departments spent $12.1 billion, according to U.S. Department of Education filings. High-school athletic departments spend several billion dollars more. U.S. parents dig deep also, spending hundreds of millions on training in hopes their kids become the next Abby Wambach or Nastia Luikin.
美国教育部(U.S. Department of Education)的备案文件显示，在2010至2011年这一有数据可查的最新学年，美国高校的体育院系花费了121亿美元，中学体育部门的花费还要高出数十亿美元。美国家长也为此付出很多，为了把他们的孩子培养成下一个瓦姆巴赫或是娜斯佳•柳金(Nastia Luikin)而掏了数亿美元的腰包。
Compare that with China, where state-run sports schools comb through communities searching for the extremely tall to play basketball and the double-jointed to learn diving. The state oversees their training into adulthood.
中国的情况则与此不同，其公办体校会到各社区筛选，找个子奇高的人打篮球、关节灵活的则选去学习跳水。国家会负责他们直至成年之后的训练。
That system, says Bill Martin, the former president of the USOC, wouldn't work in the U.S. 'It's not part of the DNA of our country to have one controlling authority on sports,' he says. 'The beauty of our system is that Olympians can come out of anywhere, and they do.'
美国前奥委会主席比尔•马丁(Bill Martin)认为，这种体制在美国行不通。“我们国家就没有这种让一个机构来控制体育运动的DNA，”马丁说道，“我们的体制的魅力在于奥运选手可以来自任何一个地方，而且确实也是如此。”
China's projected medal decline points to a common post-host hangover and a more fundamental weakness in its approach to athlete development: the decline of the sports school. Over the past decade, the number of sports schools in China has decreased by 40%, according to state-run newspaper Global Times, as the country's booming economy has created more career options for rural youth whose families once viewed sports schools as a meal ticket or the only means of social mobility. Now families are more likely to turn down an invitation to a sports school because other options exist.
我们所预计的中国奖牌数量的下降表明了一些问题，比如奥运主办国在主办奥运后往往会泄劲、中国培养运动员的方法有一个更基本的弱点──体校数量减少。中国官方媒体《环球时报》(Global Times)报道称，由于中国蓬勃发展的经济为农村的年轻人创造了更多就业选择，过去10年来中国体校的数量减少了40%。在过去，农村家庭把体校视为长期饭票或是提高社会地位的唯一途径。如今，由于其他选择的出现，这些家庭更有可能会拒绝让孩子进体校。
Chinese sports officials declined to comment for this story, but Susan Brownell, a professor of anthropology at the University of Missouri, St. Louis, who has written extensively about Chinese sports, says the country 'is just really slowly moving toward a sports system that is more in line with what other countries have─very slowly.'
中国体育事务官员拒绝就本文置评，但密苏里大学(University of Missouri)圣路易斯分校的人类学教授苏珊•布朗奈尔(Susan Brownell)称，中国“正慢慢朝着与其他国家更为一致的体育制度迈进，速度非常缓慢。”布朗奈尔撰写过众多有关中国体育制度的文章。