英文原文

US GDP Data Bode Well For Upturn

Government revisions to second-quarter data Thursday, as well as strong growth in corporate profits, reinforced perceptions that the U.S. economy is rebounding from the deep recession.

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis left unchanged its earlier estimate of a 1% contraction in second-quarter gross domestic product, at an inflation-adjusted annual rate. Pretax corporate profits, which plunged in the fourth quarter and recovered in the first, rose 5.7%, unadjusted for inflation, in the second quarter from the previous quarter. Exluding adjustments for depreciation and changing inventory values, they rose 9.2%.

The details of the revisions to GDP, the value of all the goods and services produced in the U.S., set the stage for a better third quarter than analysts have been forecasting. 'The economy should enjoy something of a rebound over the next couple of quarters, as inventories are restocked and pent-up demand is released,' Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd., wrote in a note to clients. But with timid consumers still weighing on the economy, 'that rebound will take much longer to develop into a truly sustainable recovery.'

IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, lifted its estimate for third-quarter GDP growth to an annual rate of 3% or more, compared with 2% initially. Morgan Stanley kept its GDP prediction steady at 4.3% growth. T. Rowe Price maintained its 2.8% growth forecast but noted 'upside risk.'

The latest data underscored that businesses' aggressive cost cutting and commitment to slashing inventories helped fuel the increase in corporate profits. Nonfarm businesses drew down inventories at a faster rate than previously estimated. That shaved 1.5 percentage points off growth, larger than the department's previously estimated 0.9 points. Small inventories are seen as a harbinger of increased production in the third and fourth quarters.

In addition, as businesses become more profitable, they are more likely to resume making investments. 'It doesn't take much of a rebound in sales to trigger a revival in corporate profits, which then stimulates a cyclical upswing in business hiring and spending,' Yardeni Research said in a note to clients.

The revision to inventories in the second-quarter GDP numbers was offset by improvements in exports, residential investment, consumer spending and government spending.

Still consumers continue to be a drag on the economy. Consumer spending fell at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 1% in the second quarter, reflecting the weak labor market, tight credit and stagnant wages.

中文翻译

美国政府周四修正了二季度经济数据，公司利润也强劲增长，巩固了对美国经济正开始从深度衰退中反弹的看法。

美国商务部经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)维持此前作出的二季度国内生产总值(GDP)萎缩1%的预测（这是经通货膨胀调整的年率化数字）。未经通货膨胀调整的二季度税前公司利润较一季度增长5.7%。税前公司利润去年四季度严重下滑，今年一季度有所回升。未经折旧和库存价值变化调整的税前公司利润增长9.2%。

GDP数据修正的细节预示三季度经济有望好于分析师预期。Capital Economics Ltd.高级美国经济学家艾什沃思(Paul Ashworth)在一份客户报告中说，在接下来的几个季度中，随着库存的恢复和积压需求的释放，经济应该会经历一定的反弹。不过在捂紧腰包的消费者仍对经济造成重压的情况下，反弹将需要更长的时间才能发展成为一场确实可持续的复苏。

预测公司IHS Global Insight将预测的三季度GDP年率化增幅上调至3%甚至更高，最初的预测是2%。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)将GDP预期保持在4.3%不变。T. Rowe Price维持了2.8%的预期，不过说“有上升风险”。

最新的数据彰显了企业大幅的成本削减和降低库存的措施帮助提振了公司利润。非农企业削减库存的速度高于此前预期。这使得增幅减少了1.5个百分点，大于商务部此前预测的0.9个百分点。小规模库存被认为将预示着三、四季度增产。

此外，随着企业的盈利增加，它们更有可能重新进行投资。Yardeni Research在一份客户报告中说，销售只要有小幅反弹，就会引起公司利润的回升，进而刺激企业招聘和支出的周期性上升。

二季度GDP数据中的库存修正被出口、居民投资、消费支出和政府支出的好转所抵消。

不过，消费者仍继续拖累经济。二季度消费支出经通货膨胀调整后年降幅为1%，反映出劳动力市场疲弱、信贷紧张和工资停滞不前。