英文原文

4G hype: Time for a reality check
By Stephanie N. Mehta

Wireless carriers tout a new wave of wireless technology but it will be years before most consumers benefit — and before carriers make money.

Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Verizon (VZ) and Vodafone (VOD), last week announced it had completed data "calls" using its flavor of so-called 4G technology, a new generation of radio upgrades that promises to improve the throughput and capacity of wireless phone networks.

Rival Sprint Nextel (S) immediately responded with a flurry of news releases touting its 4G network, which uses a competing technical standard. In proclaiming its ability to deliver peak downlink speeds of 10 Mbps, one release gushed: "At these speeds, Sprint 4G breathes new life into wireless Internet."

Um, wasn't that what 3G was supposed to do?

Okay, that was a little harsh. But some analysts say the wireless carriers and their suppliers are hyping 4G technologies way before the services –and devices–are ready for prime time.

Indeed, many carriers globally still are building out their third-generation networks, and are only now starting to see returns on their investments, which included substantial payments for additional spectrum licenses.

3G all over again?

"Yay, Verizon made a test call on LTE," deadpans Jane Zweig, CEO of the Shosteck Group, a telecommunications consulting firm. LTE stands for Long Term Evolution, and it is the technology Verizon and many other incumbent phone operators are using to transition to yet another generation of broadband networks.

Zweig, whose firm has predicted that global wireless giant Vodafone won't make a return on its 3G investment (including spectrum) until 2013, sees 4G as a replay of 3G: a long, painful slog that will take many years to get up and running–and many more after that to produce financial gains for the carriers.

"Let's replay 3G," she says. "Where are the devices? What is it that people are going to do? How much is the build out going cost? What's the resturn on investment. Is this a vendor dream or a carrier's nightmare?"

The carriers' 3G experience in the U.S. and abroad certainly offer clues as to how long it will take for 4G to become pervasive (and useful) to consumers.

When carriers started rolling out 3G systems in the early part of the decade–Japan's NTT DoCoMo (DCM) in 2001 became the first operator of a 3G network; Verizon followed two years later as the first major carrier in the U.S. to offer 3G–there was a lot of excitement (ample press releases, white papers and briefings by breathless executives) but not a lot for consumers to do with the network.

Some road warriors procured wireless data cards to hook their laptops up to the new network, but the first wave of 3G phones didn't offer much of a multimedia experience.

If you build it…

A few executives at U.S. wireless operators admitted at the time that 3G mainly allowed them to handle high volumes of voice calls at peak times. Not exactly what the futuristic data network was intended for.

Along came Apple's (AAPL) iPhone: More than five years after 3G launched in the U.S. consumers finally had a device that showed them the power of mobile broadband networks. (Ironically the first iPhone ran on AT&Ts (T) less robust EDGE network, sometimes referred to as a 2.5G network.)

Other 3G devices started hitting stores, and today there's a real consumer case for 3G: almost a decade after carriers pledged billions of dollars to acquire wireless spectrum and build out networks. And, still, as Zweig and other analysts point out, 3G coverage in the U.S. remains spotty and service problems persist.

Will 4G help? Many operators (and the vendors that hope to sell them expensive new gear) are already touting 4G as the solution to issues of data overload they are now facing as consumers spend a growing amount of time downloading applications and doing heavy-duty computing on their mobile devices.

But as with 3G, fully formed 4G systems–the networks, the devices, the applications–are years away. Telecom executives like to quote the 1989 movie Field of Dreams: "If you build it, they will come." They'll come, alright, just not any time soon.

中文翻译

无线运营商极力吹捧新一代无线科技的浪潮，但是消费者要等到多年以后才会从中受益，并且很多年后运营商才会从中盈利。

上周， Verizon和沃达丰（Vodafone）的合资企业Verizon无线（Verizon Wireless）宣布已经运用其特色的4G技术完成了数据“呼叫”。所谓4G技术，是指新一代无线电技术的升级，可以提高无线电话网络的传输率和容量。

其劲敌斯普林特公司（Sprint Nextel）立即发布了一系列新闻进行回应，宣扬其4G网络运用了极具竞争力的技术标准，下行链路速率最高能达到10Mbps。一条新闻称：“斯普林特的4G技术在如此高速下，为无线互联网带来了新的生机。”

可是，这难道不是3G技术本该做到的吗？

好吧，这样说可能有些刺耳。但是一些分析师指出，无线运营商及其供应商正在夸大4G技术的功能，实际上4G服务和设备还没有成熟。

的确，全世界许多运营商仍然在建立全球第三代通信网络，而且它们才刚刚取得投资回报，这些投资还包括为附加频谱执照所支付的大额款项。

3G要重新开始吗？

电信顾问公司肖斯泰克集团（Shosteck Group）首席执行官简•茨威格（Jane Zweig）面无表情地说：“是啊，Verizon曾对LTE做过测试通话，”LTE即长期演进技术（Long Term Evolution），Verizon和其它一些电话运营商都利用此技术向下一代宽带网络过渡。

茨威格的公司预计，世界无线通讯巨头沃达丰直到2013年才会在3G投资（包括频谱）上盈利。茨威格认为，4G技术只是3G的重演：要经过很多年的努力才起步腾飞，而运营商的盈利则需要更长时间。

她说：“让我们重新发展3G吧，设备在哪？人们将要做什么？建立3G网络的成本是多少？投资的回报又是多少？这究竟是供应商的美梦还是运营商的噩梦？”

根据运营商在美国和其它国家发展3G技术的经验，4G技术开始流行（并发挥作用）还需要相当长时间。

本世纪初，由于运营商开始推出3G体系，日本NTT DoCoMo于2001年成为第一家经营3G网络的公司；Verizon紧随其后，在2003年成为美国3G网络的第一大运营商——这在当时是不小的轰动（高管们马不停蹄地准备大量的新闻发布会、白皮书和简报），但是消费者与3G网络似乎并没有什么关系。

通过无线数据卡，一些开拓者将笔记本电脑与3G技术成功挂钩，但第一代3G手机的多媒体功能少之又少。

如果你建立了……

当时，美国无线运营商的少数高管承认： 第一代3G手机主要是在高峰期处理大量的语音呼叫，但这并不是未来数据网络预期的发展方向。

还有苹果公司（Apple）的 iPhone：在3G登陆美国5年后，一款能够证明移动宽带网络实力的设备终于与消费者见面。【而具讽刺意味的是，美国电话电报公司（AT&T）运营的第一款iPhone在被称为2.5G网络的EDGE网络的表现并不算好。】

其它3G设备开始在商店发售，如今3G也有了真正的消费案例：运营商担保了几十亿美元来获得无线电频谱，并建立网络，期间经历了十年的时间。然而，正如茨威格和其他分析师指出的，3G在美国只是星星点点的覆盖，且服务方面的问题层出不穷。

4G会有所帮助吗？许多运营商（以及希望高价售出新设备的供应商）已经在吹捧4G技术能够解决目前面临的数据超载问题。目前，消费者使用手机下载应用软件和进行复杂计算花费的时间都越来越多。

但是像3G技术一样，形成一个成熟的4G体系——包括网络，设备及应用——还需要很多年。电信业高管们喜欢引用1989年电影壮志雄心（Field of Dreams）中的一句话：“只要你有勇气建造，梦想就会实现。”好吧，它们会实现的，只是不会在近期实现。