英语原文（上）

It's time for our annual predictions post, in which the ReadWriteWeb authors look forward to what 2009 might bring in the world of Web technology and new media.

Looking back at our 2008 Web predictions, we got some of them right! "The big Internet companies will [embrace] open standards" (Google,Yahoo and others did this); "Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008" (check!); "Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground" (Microsoft Azure and Google App Engine were released and AWS grew). We also got some wrong, including most of our acquisition picks! Digg, Twitter, Zoho, Tumblr - all remain independent. Not to be deterred, we've made new acquisition predictions for '09... although the names will be familiar ;-)

So check out our predictions for '09 and please contribute your own in the comments.

Richard MacManus

1. iTunes adds social networking features; but it's still a closed development system.
2. Facebook signs up to OpenSocial; whether or not this happens, there's no doubt that Google will continue to collect big name supporters for the various open standards initiatives which it has started in the last couple of years.
3. Yahoo sells to a big media company, but it won't be Microsoft; Yahoo getting bought is a big call and I hope I'm wrong about it - but e.g. I could see the likes of Rupert Murdoch swooping in if things get much worse for the former dot com high flyer.
4. Microsoft releases a cool online version of Office, but then Google releases an amazing new version of Google Docs; Microsoft promised the first bit at PDC '08, but when that launches I forsee it being trumped soon after by Google releasing a more powerful version of its browser-based Google Docs. One that is comparable in user experience (but not features, because that is unnecessary) to MS Word. This new version of Google Docs may be limited to Chrome at first, but it will get a lot of attention and scare the bejeebers out of Redmond.
5. Health web apps start getting attention from mainstream people and media; big breathless profiles from the likes of CNN, Time magazine, etc. Unfortunately health system red tape remains a tangly mess, for another year.
6. Apps that do filtering, inferring and recommendation have a great year; several will release plug-ins for Google Reader, Twitter, Facebook and other 'sipping from the firehose' apps.
7. The usual suspects will remain unacquired in '09: Digg, Twitter, Technorati. The one that does get bought is FriendFeed - by Google probably, given that it was created by ex-Googlers.
8. Media properties prominently experiment with different and innovative types of online advertising; in other words the move beyond CPM starts to actually happen, due to the down economy, after years of CPA type predictions. Related, a stunning new metric will emerge that accurately determines the success of media properties beyond mere page views (ok that one's wishful thinking maybe!).

Marshall Kirkpatrick

1. Lifestreams will continue to evolve; From the explosion of the newsfeed-powered Facebook to the experimental polling technology of FriendFeed, 2008 was a big year for the "lifestream" - the technology of aggregating data from all your activities on different social networks around the web. No one summed it up better than Mark Krynsky in his Lifestream Blog post The Year in Lifestreaming for 2008. In 2009, I'll be watching the parties above, but also MovableType's Motion, social media ping server Gnip, Strands on the iPhone and Chris Messina and friends' new working group on Activity Streams.
2. Facebook will continue to surprise; I love to hate Facebook, but Mark Zuckerberg and company keep bringing me back to a state of...impressed. I wish open standards ruled the world, but Facebook Connect is so compelling that it can't be ignored. I'd like to see Data Portability prioritized a touch above full-blown privacy, but Facebook's relatively tame version of portability is getting real traction while others are stuck in the land of promises and proofs of concept.
3. Big companies will have incentive to give OpenID more support because of Facebook's domination; Support has been relatively tepid in the past. When you're winning, open standards aren't in your interest. When you aren't, they become much more appealing. MySpace, AOL, Yahoo - all have made meaningful moves to support OpenID before, but now that Facebook is clearly dominating them all, I expect to see these companies make bigger moves towards OpenID and other standards.
4. Have cake and eat it too solutions will emerge as a strong option; Have you seenJanRain's RPX plug-in? It lets users log in to a website using OpenID or proprietary methods, like Facebook Connect, through the same interface. It's really pretty, too. There are other examples of this kind of paradigm, but I expect to see them proliferate in the coming year.
5. One or two interface developments will blow us away; The iPhone inspired countless people about user interfaces, unlike anything else has in a long time. Somebody's going to blow our minds again. Information overload alone demands radical innovation, and it's in the works all around the world. Maybe it will be Mozilla, maybe it will be in gaming, perhaps in Adobe AIR, or it could be in Microsoft's Silverlight. May it not be a brain implant.

Sarah Perez

1. Twitter announces they have a plan to make money. They do.
2. New iPhone is released with video recording capabilities.
3. Facebook Connect becomes new de facto way to login to web sites.
4. Google Reader gets themes.
5. Digg still not acquired by anyone.
6. New real-time web app launches that integrates Twitter, FriendFeed & more in ways we never could have imagined.
7. Out of work journalists band together and create some killer blogs.
8. Google Chrome adds plugins...one of them is a Google plugin that lets you integrate Google Mail, Reader, & other Google products/services right into the browser.
9. Netbooks stay hot...get lighter, faster, thinner, but thanks to variable pricing from manufacturers, line between notebooks and netbooks blurs.
10. Google backlash begins.
11. Apple backlash does not.
12. New iPods released...now with VOIP app built-in. AT&T concerned.
13. Professional twitterer becomes a real job.

英语原文（下）

Bernard Lunn

1. VCs jump onto the SAAS bandwagon, but most ventures don't need the cash.
2. More Indian start-ups go global with price-smashing strategy.
3. 2009 will be like 2002 for raising money or exiting.
4. P2P shows value for reducing cost of server farms.
5. Consumer and regulatory backlash make online privacy into a key differentiator for major players.

Frederic Lardinois

1. Digg still won't be bought.
2. Twitter will start to embed advertising into its users streams as it slowly becomes mainstream.
3. Google will finally offer a comprehensive online storage solution and some kind of travel product.
4. Lifestreaming apps like FriendFeed will remain niche products that only serve the early adopter market.
5. Streaming web video to the living room will go mainstream.
6. If Apple finally enables its push server, mobile social networks and geolocation enabled apps will become a major topic next year.

Lidija Davis

1. Google loses goodwill, Yahoo gains.
2. Microsoft resurrects WebTV after buying out Netflix.
3. Mixx concentrates on usability and starts gaining ground on Digg.
4. Facebook has one security incident too many, leading to a decline in popularity.
5. The value of having a unified system for data portability and single sign-in services becomes unmistakable after a significant privacy breach.

Sean Ammirati

1. Twitter will be acquired (probably by Facebook--but multiple suitors will compete for the deal).
2. Due to new leadership and a slow economy that has people more focused on their professional network, LinkedIn will grow in the public's consciousness and more importantly grow their revenue dramatically.
3. Exciting new open source projects will emerge and grow due to a growing number of un/under employed engineers.
4. Unfortunately, Facebook Connect authentication will become dominant method for authentication on the web (while this is my prediction, I'm still rooting for a more open solution).
5. Microsoft will launch a competing platform with Apple's App Store. The reaction from the market will be underwhelming.

Alex Iskold

1. Twitter is going to continue to grow and eventually get acquired, while Facebook is going to see further decline.
2. Amazon will further strengthen its position in the cloud computing market, by launching more of its Web Services and gaining more clients for existing ones.
3. More contextual browsing technologies will hit the market powered by improved top-down semantic recognition engines.
4. The browser wars will further heat up, with Google throwing marketing dollars and distribution deals behind Chrome.

Rick Turoczy

1. With the economy continuing to tank, Microsoft will double-down on its Facebook investment, garnering more control of the company - and more access to the data being gathered through Facebook Connect.
2. Google will finally solve the issues that have prevented its adoption of OpenID logins for all Google services. That, combined with EAUT, will make Gmail accounts the de facto login credential on the Web.
3. One of the major gaming platform companies - Nintendo, Sega, Sony - will begin acquiring small iPhone development shops in an effort to translate titles to the iPhone format and to corner the market on iPhone gaming.
4. Under pressure from iPhone, Android, Symbian, and RIM; Windows Mobile will attempt to reinvent itself. Unfortunately for Microsoft, it will be about as successful as Vista and the Zune.
5. eBay - the Yahoo! of 2009 - oscillates between break-up and acquisition. After a great deal of drama, it will eventually be acquired by Amazon and incorporated into its seller storefront offering.

There you have it, the picks of the ReadWriteWeb team; what about your predictions? Let us know in the comments, so we can check who among us all has gloating rights at the end of 2009.

中文翻译（上）

回顾2008互联网预测，读写网猜对的有：大公司将采取开放标准（Google、雅虎和其他几家大公司）；手机网络应用将在2008年大放光芒；网络服务平台成为激烈的战场（微软发布Azure，Google发布网络应用引擎『App Engine』，亚马逊网络服务平台『AWS』持续壮大）。读写网也有猜错的地方，大部分有关收购的猜测都错了。Digg, Twitter, Zoho, Tumblr依然没有被收购。

以下是读写网2009年的互联网预测：

Richard MacManus

1. iTunes增加社交网络功能。

2. Facebook 加入OpenSocial。

3. Yahoo被一家大媒体公司收购，但不是微软。

4. Microsoft推出酷味十足的在线版办公软件，但是Google会发布令人惊艳的新版本Google文档。

5. 健康卫生网络应用将受到主流媒体和大众的关注。

6. 具有过滤、推断和推荐功能的网络应用将获得大丰收。

7. Digg，Twitter， Technorati仍然不会被收购。但是Google可能收购FriendFeed。

8. 媒体公司的在线广告将出现更多新形式。

Marshall Kirkpatrick

1. 生活流（如FriendFeed、Twitter等）继续进化。

2. Facebook持续创新。

3. 由于Facebook的统治地位，其它大公司将会给予OpenID更多支持。

4. “鱼和熊掌兼得”的解决方案将是一个不错的选择。比如允许用户通过OpenID等方式登录其它网站。

5. 一两个界面开发项目将再次让我们为之疯狂。iPhone激发了无数人对用户界面的灵感。下一个让人大吃一惊的用户界面有可能出现在Mozilla，也有可能出现在游戏领域，或者Adobe AIR，或者微软的Silverlight。

Sarah Perez

1. Twitter宣布盈利计划，并且取得成功。

2. 新iPhone增加录像功能。

3. Facebook Connect成为登录网站的新方式。

4. Google阅读器可以选择主题背景。

5. Digg不会被收购。

6. 新的即时网络应用以前所未有的方式整合Twitter， FriendFeed 及其它服务。

7. 失业记者联合在一起，成立一些杀手级博客。

8. Google Chrome浏览器支持插件。

9. 上网本（Netbook）持续升温，和笔记本之间的界限越来越模糊。

10. 反Google势力形成气候。

11. 反苹果势力不成气候。

12. 新的iPod具有网络电话插件，AT&T担忧。

13. 职业推手（twitterer）成为新兴职业。

Bernard Lunn

1. 风险投资对软件即服务（SAAS）趋之若鹜，但是大部分公司不缺钱。

2. 更多印度初创公司通过低成本战略走向国际。

3. 从融资和倒闭方面看，2009类似于2002。

4. P2P由于可以降低服务器站（server farm）的成本而凸显价值。

5. 用户和管制反对让在线隐私成为大公司之间的分水岭。

中文翻译（下）

Frederic Lardinois

1. Digg不会被收购。

2. Twitter渐入主流，并在用户消息中嵌入广告。

3. Google推出全面的在线存储服务，以及一个类似旅游产品的服务。

4. 像FriendFeed一样的生活流产品仍然只是服务于早期用户市场的利基产品。

5. 起居室网络视频直播步入主流。

6. 如果苹果推出推送服务器（push server），手机社交网络和定位产品将大行其道。

Lidija Davis

1. Google失去信誉，雅虎赢得信誉。

2. 微软在收购Netflix之后重振WebTV。

3. Mixx专注于易用性，并开始赶超Digg。

4. Facebook出现一次安全事件，导致大量用户流失。

5. 具备数据便携性和唯一登录服务的统一系统将凸显价值。

Sean Ammirati

1. Twitter将被收购，买家是Facebook，也可能是其他公司。

2. LinkedIn被大众认知，收入大增。

3. 新的开源项目将出现并增长。

4. Facebook Connect授权成为访问网络主要的授权方式。

5. 微软推出平台与苹果商店竞争。市场反应平平。

Alex Iskold

1. Twitter持续增长并被收购， Facebook进一步衰退。

2. 亚马逊在云计算市场增长迅速。

3. 出现更多语境浏览（contextual browsing）技术。『注1』

4. 浏览器大战愈演愈烈。Google在Chrome上大耍美刀。

Rick Turoczy

1. 微软对Facebook的投资加倍。

2. Google所有产品都解决OpenID登录问题。Gmail账户成为登录网络的凭证。

3. 大型游戏公司开始收购小型iPhone开发公司，开发的游戏转化为支持iPhone的格式。

4. 面对来自iPhone，Android，Symbian，以及RIM的压力，Windows Mobile不得不洗心革面，不幸的是其命运和Vista以及Zune相差无几。

5. eBay成为2009年的雅虎，要么倒闭，要么被收购。

注释1：有关语境浏览（contextual browsing）。
目前国内对语境网的介绍非常少，中文资料几乎为零。通过Google查询，个人觉得contextual翻译成“语境”比翻译成“文脉”更能体现其含义。以下是综合Google搜索结果编译的内容，供大家参考。
什么是语境网（Contextual Web）?

以前大部分网站只是由一些数据和HTML网页组成，根本算不上什么软件。你只能用浏览器这个软件开查看这些元素。但问题在于浏览器不知道网页包含什么内容，也不知道用户在做什么。因为它无法推断上下文，也无法帮助你得到相关信息。

而语境网则截然不同。因为它明白用户在做什么。网页信息和用户的使用数据构成了语境（或称之为上下文）。所以文脉浏览技术有可能和传统搜索形成竞争，因为它可以进行迂回搜索（bypass search）。

文脉网的关键属性

当浏览器和网站能够识别用户行为的时候就可以称之为文脉网。在文脉网内选择更少，含义更多，不需要一直用Google搜索，只要Google一次，然后其它的信息会根据上下文自动提交给我们。

关键属性：

* 相关性：更好地了解用户语境，内容相关性更好。
* 快速搜索: 语境快速搜索减少了模糊搜索。
* 个性化： 语境基于用户意图和浏览历史。
* 再混合： 可以立刻从网上得到相关信息。

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