英文
Talk about capitulation! Judging from my mailbag following last week's coverage of the Case-Shiller housing numbers, almost nobody has a good word to say about the real estate market any more.

I'm an instinctive contrarian. So I hope readers don't take it the wrong way when I say that when so many of you agree with me, I start to get nervous.

And where is my hate mail? The brokers must be totally whipped. Even a year ago anyone questioning housing prices could reliably expect a torrent of furious replies from those in the business.

Today? Almost nothing. And the few left are mostly of the 'U r an idiot (Sent from my iPhone)' variety. Pitiful.

Maybe the moment of maximum pessimism is at hand after all.

So let me play devil's advocate and consider the positive case for buying a home right now.

The key factor: Interest rates.

If you can borrow at 4.5% or 5% over 30 years, many purchases start to look appealing. Especially if we get a hefty dose of inflation down the line.

If that happens, your monthly payments will be low and you'd get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars. That's a double win.

Inflation isn't guaranteed: The bond markets are only predicting about 1.4% inflation over the next 10 years, and BCA Research recently reminded clients that deflation, or falling prices, remains a danger. Unemployment is still rising and recent wages actually fell.

Yet if you had to bet from here, you'd bet on inflation in due course. The government is running massive deficits and has the printing presses at full throttle. That's the classic recipe.

And inflation is the debtors' friend -- which is why it is surely going to prove the politically expedient way out of this mess.

Anyone purchasing hard assets like real estate, with a 5% fixed rate loan, ought to make good money if that happens.

When it comes to the house prices, it's true they may not have fallen as far as you might expect.

A recent analysis in the Financial Analysts Journal ('When Will Housing Recover?') suggested prices nationwide still weren't cheap by historical standards in relation to household incomes.

Homes were much cheaper, say, as recently as the 1970s.

Furthermore: the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust. Considering how sharply home prices climbed from 2002 to 2006, one might expect real estate to end up really, really cheap before bottoming out. And you wouldn't expect a quick rebound either. Japan still hasn't recovered from 1989.

But if you are thinking of buying a home, here's the more positive news: While overall market averages may not be as cheap as you might have expected, you can probably ignore them.

There are plenty of deals taking place far below the official average levels. The indices are masking a huge disparity in prices.

Even the National Association of Realtors concedes distressed sales including foreclosures and short sales are closing about 20% below 'normal' market rates. (Never mind how to define 'normal').

Aggressive buyers are finding some simply terrific deals. And they're paying with cheap debt, too.

Default rates are rising. Lots of sellers are forced. A buyer with options holds all the cards.

Once upon a time, the name of the real estate game was 'let's make a deal.' Today, it's 'take it or leave it.' If the seller won't take your offer, his neighbor probably will.
中文
自上周写了有关Case-Shiller住房数据的报导后，从我邮箱的情况来看，几乎没有什么人对房地产市场还抱有希望。

我是个本能的反向操作派。因此，当我说如果你们中有很多人认同我、我就开始变得紧张时，我希望读者不要从反面理解我的话。

那些烦人的邮件哪里去了？这些经纪人一定是彻底完蛋了。即使在一年前，任何有关房价的问题一定都会得到这些从业人员大量的热情回复。

今天呢？几乎什么都没有。仅有的几个都是诸如“你是个白痴（来自我的iPhone）”之类的话。可怜。

或许，极度悲观的时刻就要到来了。

因此，让我冒天下之大不韪，考虑一下眼下买房子的积极一面。

关键因素是：利率。

如果你能以4.5%或5%的利率获得30年期的贷款，那么，许多购房计划看上去立刻就有了吸引力。如果接下来会出现较高的通货膨胀的话，就更是如此了。

如果发生这种情况，你的月度供款会较低，你可以在一定时间内用贬值的美元逐渐偿还掉本金。这真是两全其美。

通货膨胀不一定会发生：债券市场对未来10年的通货膨胀率预期只有1.4%，而BCA Research最近提醒客户，通货紧缩的危险依然存在。失业率仍在上升，近期的工资水平实际在下降。

不过，如果你现在必须打个赌，你应该预计到一定的时候会发生通货膨胀。政府现在有大量赤字，印钞机正在全速运转。这是传统的应对方法。

通货膨胀是债务人的好朋友──正因如此，它肯定会成为政治上摆脱这个乱摊子的捷径。

如果真的发生这种情况，任何以5%的固定利率贷款购买房地产等硬资产的人都应会大赚一笔。

至于说房价，的确，它跌得可能不像你可能期待的那么多。

Financial Analysts Journal最近的一个分析认为，以房价与家庭收入比来衡量，与历史水平相比，全美范围的房价仍不便宜。

比如在七十年代，住房价格要便宜得多。

此外，泡沫越大，破裂时的破坏也越大。看看2002-2006年房价的攀升速度吧，人们会预计房地产最终触底前会非常、非常便宜。而且你也不要指望能够迅速出现回升。日本到现在也没从1989年的泡沫破裂中恢复过来。

但是，如果你在考虑购买住房，这里有一个更加正面的消息：虽然总体市场平均水平或许并不像期望的那么便宜，但你可能可以忽略它们。

有大量交易是以远低于官方平均水平的价格成交的。房价指数掩盖了具体价格上的巨大差异。

就连全美房地产协会(National Association of Realtors)也承认，廉价销售──包括止赎房和债务减免房销售──的销售价格比“正常”市价低约20%（别管如何定义“正常”了）。

大胆的买家发现了一些好得不得了的交易。而且，他们是以低成本的借款支付房款。

违约率在上升。许多卖家都是被迫的。有多种选择的买家可以掌控整个局面。

从前，房地产游戏的名字是“让我们做笔交易吧”。现如今则是“要就要，不要拉倒”。如果卖家不接受你的出价，他的邻居或许愿意。