在黑暗中寻找光明

买入信号产生了吗？

温斯顿·丘吉尔在1945年的选举中败北后，丘夫人认为这次失败可能是因祸得福。”这回这祸可能是太大了些。”丘公回应说。

从事后的观点来看，或许投资者会把最近的一系列事件看做市场的转折点。也许看涨信号立刻就会产生，但要将其识别并采取行动，恐怕又是另一回事了。美国当局牺牲了雷曼兄弟，欲”以儆效尤”，却发现所产生唯一的效果是不再有人愿意为情况貌似不妙的机构提供资金。

随着货币市场的冻结，本周风险厌恶情绪极其高涨。美元隔夜同业拆借利率翻番，而三个月美国国库券利率则跌至50多年来的最低点。此外，美国政府出手挽救房利美、房地美和美国国际集团（AIG），虽然不无道理，却使金融机构再难增发新股。华尔街对政府拯救AIG之举反应平淡，不像前几次政府介入之后那样应声反弹。

坏消息纷至沓来，令美国财长汉克·保尔森焦头烂额，不得不使尽浑身解数勉力支持。本周又有新问题出现：规模高达650亿美元的货币市场基金Reserve Primary中止了赎回，并警告说基金可能”跌破净资产”，即只能以低于面值的价格偿付投资者。这一消息可能引发投资者从其他货币市场基金中抽回资金。与此同时，信贷资产之间的利差急剧扩大，而新兴市场更是惨遭重创。

现在主宰市场的是”去杠杆风暴”–当机构无法将债务延期时，就必须卖出资产。由此导致的价格下跌将引起市场对其他机构偿债能力的怀疑，从而产生螺旋式的下跌趋势。

四顾茫然，出路何在？说来有趣，希望首先存于极度低迷的市场情绪中。美林最近一期全球基金经理调查显示，目前的风险偏好正处于十多年来的最低点。通常这种极端情形属于看涨信号。

其次，政府并非唯一买家。继美洲银行收购美林之后，英国抵押贷款商HBOS也收到了Lloyds TSB橄榄枝。这表明经理人还能从现在的价格中发现价值。不过这到底是精明的抄底、政府的强迫行为还是野心勃勃的大跃进，还有待时间的检验。

第三，随着商品价格的暴跌，通货膨胀的威胁已有所消除，这使得央行终于有了消减利率的空间，也有利于减轻消费需求压力和改善企业利润率。

第四，央行不惜采取非同寻常的措施来稳定市场。美联储决定接受股票作为贴现窗口贷款的抵押品，这在18个月以前是不可想象的。

第五，股票市场的估值水平获得了很大改善。9月17日，英国富时全股指数（FTSE All-Share index）收益率已经超过了10年期金边债券。这在1950年代晚期以来还是首次发生–上一次发生在2003年3月，紧随其后的是一波长期牛市。

不过，凭着这些看涨信号就采取行动需要很大的勇气。在3月贝司登倒台时就有人认为信贷动荡的转折点已经来临，结果他们大失所望。衡量市场对意外冲击是否有所准备的波动指数VIX尽管在9月17日暴涨，仍然低于之前的峰值。

目前不光是货币市场冻结，其他金融机构也可能陷入困境。买家愿意继续等待资产价格进一步下跌，巴克莱就是如此–它完全能够在雷曼兄弟公司里找到对自己有利的部分，并将其买下。与此同时，本周的动荡必将严重影响经济形势：消费者情绪受到打击，银行进行贷款是也必将更加小心翼翼。和月初比起来，发生衰退的可能性有所提高。

也许标志熊市结束的抛售高潮根本不会发生，股价只是在现在的估值水平附近反复震荡。现在进场抄底的买家，很有可能是五年后的智者，但不太可能是半年后的智者。

Looking for the bright side

Are there any signs that this could be a buying opportunity?

WHEN Winston Churchill lost the 1945 election, his wife remarked that the defeat might be a blessing in disguise. “At the moment”, replied the great man, “it seems quite effectively disguised.”

It is possible, when investors view recent events in retrospect, they will see them as a turning point for markets. But if there are immediately bullish implications, they seem to be quite effectively disguised. The American authorities sacrificed Lehman Brothers “to encourage the others”, only to find the others were simply encouraged to deny funding to weak-looking institutions.

Risk aversion reached extremes this week as the money markets froze. Overnight dollar rates doubled in the interbank market while the rate paid by the American government for three-month money fell to its lowest in more than 50 years. In addition, the caning the authorities gave to shareholders in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG, however hard to argue with, will make it tough for financial institutions to raise new equity. Wall Street did not even bother to rally after the AIG deal as it had after previous government interventions.

Bad news seems to be coming from all sides, leaving Hank Paulson, America’s treasury secretary, increasingly resembling a one-armed wallpaper hanger as he valiantly seeks to cope with the mess. Another problem emerged this week; a $65 billion money-market fund, Reserve Primary, suspended redemptions and warned that it would “break the buck”, ie, repay investors at less than face value. That could cause a flight out of other money-market funds. Meanwhile, credit spreads over risk-free rates have widened sharply and emerging markets have taken a hammering.

The “great deleveraging” is working its way through the markets, as institutions, unable to roll over their debts, are forced to sell assets. The resulting fall in prices raises doubts about the solvency of other businesses, giving the spiral another downward lurch.

So what good news can be found in the midst of all this gloom? The first, curiously enough, is that sentiment is very depressed. The latest poll of global fund managers by Merrill Lynch found that risk appetite is at its lowest level in over a decade. Such extremes are normally a bullish sign.

The second is that the government is not the only buyer. After Merrill Lynch’s sale to Bank of America, HBOS, a British mortgage lender, has also sought refuge within a bank, Lloyds TSB. That suggests executives see value in today’s prices. Whether this is out of shrewd bargain-hunting, state arm-twisting or over-ambitious empire-building remains to be seen.

The third is that the inflation threat has receded, thanks to the sharp fall in commodity prices. Eventually, that will allow central banks to cut interest rates. In addition, it will relieve the pressure on consumer demand and corporate profit margins.

The fourth factor is that central banks are also willing to undertake quite extraordinary market-support measures, including the Fed’s decision to accept equities as collateral against lending at its discount window. That would have been unthinkable 18 months ago.

The fifth issue is that valuations in equity markets have improved substantially. In Britain on September 17th, the yield on the FTSE All-Share index was higher than the yield on ten-year gilts. This has happened only once before since the late 1950s-in March 2003, which proved to be the start of a long rally.

However, it would be a brave investor that acted on those bullish signals today. Those who believed that the Bear Stearns collapse in March marked a turning point in the credit crunch were disappointed. The Vix, or volatility index, a measure of market preparedness for shocks, has been lower than in past peaks-though it shot up on September 17th.

While the money markets are frozen, other financial institutions may get into trouble. Buyers will be tempted to wait until asset prices fall further, a strategy that worked for Barclays, which was able to choose the slice of Lehman Brothers it desired. And the economy will surely have been harmed by this week’s turmoil; consumer sentiment will have been hit and banks will inevitably prove even more cautious about their lending. A recession seems more likely than it did at the start of the month.

Perhaps there will be no climactic sell-off to signal the end of the bear market. Instead share prices may simply bounce around in a choppy range near today’s values. It is quite plausible that those who buy shares today will look smart in five years’ time. It is much less certain they will look smart six months from now.