英语原文

Chinese lenders to report record profits

While their western counterparts struggle for survival, Chinese banks are now the first, second and third largest in the world by market capitalisation and will report record full-year 2008 profits in the coming weeks.

But the days of surging profits are probably over for now as the country's economy stalls and the government leans on the state lenders to fund the bulk of its Rmb4,000bn ($585bn) stimulus programme.

Bank of Communications, 18.6 per cent owned by HSBC, will be the first Chinese bank to report its 2008 earnings tonight, with analysts expecting full-year profit growth of 35 per cent.

That is roughly in line with the government's announcement of a 30.6 per cent increase to Rmb583bn in after-tax profits for the entire Chinese banking sector last year – a respectable performance but about 20 percentage points slower than analysts were expecting six months ago.

Annual profit growth will mask a steep decline in the latter part of last year as the economy stalled and interest rate margins contracted as the government cut benchmark rates to jumpstart domestic growth.

“We estimate that China banks' aggregate earnings dropped by an average of 44 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2008,” Sherry Lin, a Credit Suisse analyst, said in a research note.

Credit Suisse expects the largest banks, such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China, to fare better than smaller domestic rivals but the coming year is expected to be tough on the entire sector.

Analysts are now forecasting a modest fall in aggregate bank profits in 2009, a significant downgrade from the high-teens profit growth for this year that were expected in mid-2008.

The collapse of Chinese exports, a slowing property sector and contracting margins are big reasons why many have turned bearish on the banking sector.

中文翻译

在西方同行为生存而挣扎之时，中国的银行如今囊括全球市值最大银行的前三位，并将在未来数周披露创纪录的2008年全年利润。

不过，随着中国经济陷于停滞、政府要依靠国有银行为4万亿元人民币（合5850亿美元）经济刺激计划提供大部分资金，中国各银行利润大幅增长的日子可能会暂时告一段落。

交通银行(Bank of Communications)将于今晚率先披露2008年业绩，分析师预计该行全年利润增长35%。汇丰(HSBC)持有交行18.6%的股份。

这一增幅与政府公布的整个中国银行业去年的税后利润增幅大致相符。中国银行业去年税后利润增长30.6%，至5830亿元人民币——这个增幅很可观，但比分析师6个月前的预计低了约20个百分点。

全年利润的增长，将掩盖去年下半年因经济陷于停滞和息差减小而导致的利润大幅下降。息差减小是因为政府为刺激国内增长而下调了基准利率。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师林淑娥(Sherry Lin)在一份研究报告中表示：“我们估计，2008年第四季度中国各银行的总盈利环比平均下降了44%。”

瑞士信贷预计，中国建设银行(CCB)、中国工商银行(ICBC)和中国银行(Bank of China)等最大型银行的表现，将好于规模较小的国内竞争对手，但预计下一年度对全行业来说都会是艰难的。

分析师目前预测，中国银行业2009年的总利润将小幅下降。相对于2008年年中对今年利润将增长15%以上的预期，这一预测可谓一个大幅下调。

中国出口的暴跌、房地产行业的减速和不断减小的息差，是许多人转为看跌中国银行业的几大原因。