阅读训练

　Section B

　　Passage One

　　Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy.

　　Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast of about late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to Its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

　　It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5 % in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage below the rate predicted at the end of the last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

　　Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, esp. America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate has fallen below most

　　Why has inflation proved so wild7 The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

　　52. According to the passage, making monetary policy changes ______.

　　A) is comparable to driving a car

　　B) is similar to carrying out scientific work

　　C) will not influence the economy immediately

　　D) will have an immediate impact on the inflation rate

　　53. From the passage we learn that ______.

　　A) there is a clear relationship between inflation and interest rates

　　B) the economy always follows particular trends

　　C) the current economic problems are entirely predictable

　　D) the present economic situation is better than expected

　　54. The passage suggests that ______.

　　A) the previous economic models are still applicable

　　B) an extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation

　　C) a high unemployment rate will result from inflation

　　D) interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy

　　55. By saying "This is no flash in the pan" (Paragraph 3, Line 6), the author implies that

　　A) the low inflation rate will continue B) the inflation rate will rise again

　　C) inflation will disappear entirely D) there is no inflation at present

　　56. How does the author feel about the present situation?

　　A) Tolerant. B) Indifferent. C) Disappointed. D) Surprised.
阅读答案

　　Section B

　　52--56 CDBAD

　　Section B

　　52.细节推断题。文中第一段末提出“The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain.And there are long，variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy。”，由此可以判断选项C为正确答案。

　　53.推断题。从文中第二段、第三段举例可以看出，我们的经济inflation rate总比预测的要低、要好。因而正确答案为D项。

　　54.意义推断题。第一段末谈到“And there are long，variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy”，由此排除选项D。最后一段说“since conventional measures suggest that both economies，esp.America's，have little productive slack”，意思就是讲过去传统的方法对某些经济预测不管用了，由此可以看出选项A不对。再看文末“both economies，esp.America's，have little productive slack.America's capacity utilization，for example，hit historically high levels earlier this year，and its jobless rate has fallen below most”，美国经济通胀率低，生产萧条状况少，生产能力极大发挥，失业率降到最高水平以下，由此可以反向推断，失业率高，经济通胀率就会低;失业率低，经济通胀率就会高。因而正确答案为B项。

　　55.意义推断题。先看其上下文“3.5%in 1995.In fact，it fell to 2.6% in August，and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole.In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage below the rate predicted at the end of the last year.This is no flash in the pan;over the past couple of years，inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America”，文前，文后都讲经济通胀率低于预期，由此我们可以判断“This is no flash in the pan”，也就意味着低经济通胀仍将继续(整个经济不会出现高通胀这样的情况)。

　　56.写作态度题。最后一段，作者首先提到经济学家们感到surprised，随即作者便问“Why has inflation proved so wild?”笔者最后惊呼“powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation”，突然发现已经不能根据经济增长和经济通胀之间传统的联系来预测经济发展规律了，因而正确答案为D项。