美国经济真的变好了吗(下)
日期:2023-08-03 13:30

(单词翻译:单击)

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So, as the Fed has been raising rates, one of the big impacts of that is on people's mortgages.

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因为美联储一直在加息,这对人们的抵押贷款产生了很大的影响QUaP.~Ag1_ivDwiLed

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What have we seen in terms of how that's playing out with housing prices?

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关于加息对房价的影响方面,我们看到了什么?

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So, what's been happening in the housing market is that there's a real mismatch between the number of people looking for homes and the number of homes available.

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房地产市场现在的情况是,寻找住房的人数与可用住房的数量之间存在错配FKhUYlyDdig-(]5E]

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What the Fed can do is it cannot build more houses, right?

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美联储能做的就是不要建造更多的房子,对吧?

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So it has to focus on cooling buyer demand.

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美联储必须把重点放在为买家需求降温上=9^*qhqXz_]NMxe%8+6

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It does that by raising interest rates, which in turn lift mortgage rates.

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美联储通过提高利率来实现这一目标,这反过来又会提高抵押贷款利率wjXNdMFh7w42E((

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So that means that if you were a person shopping for a house before rates started going up, maybe you would be able to get a 3% or 4% interest rate on that house.

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这意味着,如果你是一个在利率开始上涨之前买房的人,也许你的房子的抵押贷款利率是3%或4%7fIG8A0T*nE=hJAN@eg

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Now you're looking at something much closer to 7%.

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而现在你看到的抵押贷款利率接近7%~Vd&9g(M6Wyb_|R.w!Tk

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That has the effect of causing people to bow out of the market, to say, "Ugh, I think I'm going to stay in my rental a little bit longer or I'm going to stay in the house that I already own a little bit longer."

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这会导致人们退出买房市场,人们会说:“嗯,我想我会在我租的房子里多待一段时间,我会在我已经拥有的房子里多待一段时间dfmXQ)G%7C。”

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The goal here is to cool demand for housing so that there is time for more homes to become available.

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这样做的目的是为住房需求降温,以便有时间提供更多的住房@Py]&mD]._4](U]l

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That's one of the ways that the Fed can try and slow the housing market and part of the economy.

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这是美联储试图放缓房地产市场和部分经济增长步伐的方法之一LGHZV#CsT,c~AYI

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And, so, did it work? Has the demand cooled?

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这奏效了吗? 需求降温了吗?

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Yes and no. And like a lot of questions about what is happening out there, housing is a bit of a confusing picture.

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是也不是cz_y+#y&*q。就像很多关于现在情况的问题一样,房地产市场的情况有点令人费解Hh|1@DHHer1G1.T!z

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So, mortgage rates, as they shot up, absolutely had the effect of cooling demand.

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抵押贷款利率的飙升绝对起到了冷却需求的作用qGKZy.TixF6XgN

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There were a lot of people who were all of a sudden discouraged from entering the market or found themselves priced out altogether.

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很多人突然失去了进入买房市场的勇气,要么就是发现房价太高了,负担不起,被挤出了市场dNYQbm^CmsDl3kVAKh1q

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And that was a major shift from what we saw earlier in the pandemic, where you just had these frenzied, you know, elbow-to-elbow buying wars, bidding wars, people trying to get in all cash to get the house.

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这与我们在疫情初期看到的情况有很大的不同,当时你看到的是疯狂的、肘碰肘的购买战、竞标战,人们试图用所有的资金来买房子.1(xG+bXG7[a%Hl7

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Now you don't really see very much of that anymore.

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现在你已经很少看到这种情况了YtVhOXCpd4Heu

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Realtors will say that they get a couple of offers on a house, but nothing like these sort of big swings from earlier in the pandemic.

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房地产经纪人说,他们收到了一些房子的报价,但没有像疫情早期那样的大幅波动dv2L_-WPB@G

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That allowed for a little bit of a window for more homes to slowly become available and for prices to calm down.

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这为慢慢提供更多房子、稳定房价提供了一点机会N4*TwL38#R^m;,qE

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But it's still pretty hard to buy a house right now, isn't it?

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但现在买房子还是挺难的,不是吗?

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So, it's still hard to buy a house, but, in theory, it should be getting easier and is already getting easier.

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买房仍然很难,但理论上,买房会变得更容易,而且已经变得更容易了URq7T],NOO6

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There are about a million new homes that are expected to be available later this year and next, which will help loosen up the supply.

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预计今年晚些时候和明年将有大约100万套新房可供使用,这将有助于放宽供应aR.eETL6WT)tEb

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You have buyers who are not desperate for houses, but are maybe taking a little bit longer to look. They have a few more options as they're looking.

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有些买家并不急着买房,但他们可能会花更长的时间去看房子DB^PcD|ic(h~C。他们在寻找房子的过程中会有更多的选择^(=C(a|IV3ku]O(3=rE

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And this might start to resemble a little bit of a new normal.

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这可能开始有点像一种新常态了;Qk-)w@7ck];0*A;;w

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No one is expecting that mortgage rates will suddenly plummet to those pre-pandemic levels.

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没有人认为抵押贷款利率会突然暴跌至疫情前的水平Sy!4qv_srk&9iDs

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There is a long way to go to have enough houses available to meet all the people who want them.

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提供足够的住房,满足所有买房者的需求,还有很长的路要走sZ-z]fq)oep

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But as long as things keep gradually moving in this direction, we're moving away from this brief housing recession that we saw last year.

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但只要继续朝着这个方向逐渐发展,我们就会摆脱去年那种短暂的房地产衰退的景象bV@%aJ*A=~#m

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