There was a time when simple infections were deadly,
曾经有一时期，病菌感染是致命的，
but now, thanks to the wide availability of antibiotics, this is merely a relic of the past.
但现在，多亏抗生素的广泛应用，这已成为了历史。
But actually, I should say "was," because nowadays,
其实应该说“曾经已成为历史”，因为现在，
we're using antibiotics so much that the bacteria that cause these infections are becoming resistant.
抗生素使用泛滥导致引发感染的病菌产生了耐药性。
And that should really scare the hell out of all of us.
这实在是应该令所有人感到恐惧。
If we do not change our behavior and wean ourselves off antibiotics,
如果我们不改变自己的行为，继续依赖抗生素，
the UN predicts that by 2050, antimicrobial resistance will become our single biggest killer. So we must start to act.
联合国预测到2050年，抗生素耐药性将成为我们最大的杀手。因此我们必须马上开始行动。
But "where to begin" is an interesting question, because we humans are not the only ones using antibiotics.
但“从何下手”是一个有趣的问题，因为人类并非是唯一使用抗生素的。
Worldwide, 50 to 80 percent of all antibiotics are used by animals.
在世界范围，百分之五十到八十的抗生素是其他动物使用的。
Not all of these are critical for human health,
并非所有这些都对人类健康至关重要，
but if we do not get it under control right now, we're looking at a very scary future for humans and animals alike.
但如果我们不从现在进行控制，就会看到对人类和其他动物非常可怕的未来。
To begin, let's talk about how we ended up here.
我们现在开始谈谈为什么会出现这种情况。
The first large-scale use of antibiotics was in the early '50s of the last century.
最初开始大规模使用抗生素是在上世纪五十年代。
In the Western world, prosperity was increasing and people wanted to eat more animal protein.
在西方世界，社会开始繁荣发展，人们想要食用更多的动物蛋白。
When animals were sick, you could now treat them with antibiotics so they did not die and kept growing.
动物生病时，人们有条件用抗生素治疗，动物不会死掉，还会继续生长。
But soon, it was discovered that adding small and regular amounts of antibiotics to the feed kept the animals healthy,
然而不久，人们发现在饲料中规律添加少量抗生素喂养动物会让它们保持健康，
made them grow faster and caused them to need less feed.
生长得更快，也更加节省饲料。
So these antibiotics worked well -- really well, actually.
这些抗生素很有效--实际上是非常有效。
And with increasing animal production, also antibiotic use skyrocketed worldwide.
随着动物数量的增加，抗生素的用量在全球激增。
Unfortunately, so did antibiotic resistance.
不幸的是，耐药性也随之增加。
The reason your doctor tells you to finish the entire bottle of antibiotics is
医生让你用掉整瓶抗生素的原因是，
if you shorten your dose, you will not kill all of the bugs.
如果剂量不足，病菌不能全部消灭。
And the ones that stick around build up the antibiotic resistance.
那些挺过来的病菌会增加耐药性。
It's the same problem with giving animals small and regular doses of antibiotics: some bad bugs die but not all of them.
这就像长期给动物使用小剂量抗生素：有些病菌被杀死但不是全部。
Spread that across an entire industry,
这种现象在整个行业传播，
and you can understand that we accidentally build up a large reservoir of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
这就难怪，我们无意之间建立了一个巨大的有耐药性病菌的储藏库。
But I hate to break it to you -- the problem doesn't stop there.
我实在不愿意告诉大家--事情并未就此止步。
You know who else takes antibiotics? Fluffy, your cat, and Rover, your dog.
你们知道还有谁使用抗生素吗？毛茸茸的猫和到处乱跑的狗。
Pets rank even amongst the heaviest users of all, and they use antibiotics that are much more critical for human health.
宠物在使用抗生素上名列前茅，它们使用的抗生素比人类健康所需的更厉害。
Combine this with how close we live with our companion animals
再联系到我们和这些与我们相伴的动物多么亲密，
and you understand the risk of you picking up antibiotic-resistant bacteria from your own pet.
就可以想象，你从自己的宠物那里传染到具有耐药性细菌的危险有多大。
But how do these antibiotic-resistant bacteria in farm animals affect you?
但带有耐药性病菌的农场动物怎么影响你呢？
Let me give you an example we have, actually, data on.
让我举个例子，或者说是提供数据。
The levels of antibiotic-resistant salmonella in pigs in Europe against different types of antibiotics
欧洲猪沙门氏菌对不同种类抗生素的耐药性水平
range from less than a percent to as high 60 percent.
范围从小于百分之一一直高达百分之六十。
Which means that in most cases, this antibiotic will not work anymore to kill this salmonella.
这就意味在大多数情况下，这些抗生素不再对沙门氏菌有效。
And there was a high correlation between antibiotic-resistant salmonella in the pig and in the final product.
猪体内耐药沙门氏菌与最终的猪肉产品内的沙门氏菌有很大的相关性。
Whether that is pork chop, spare ribs or minced meat.
不管产品是猪排、肋排还是猪肉馅。
Now, luckily, typically less than one percent of all raw meat, fish or eggs will contain salmonella.
幸运的是现在一般只有小于百分之一的生肉、鱼和鸡蛋含有沙门氏菌。
And this only poses a risk when not treated well.
只有在烹饪不当时才会有风险。
Still, there are over 100,000 human salmonella cases in the EU and more than a million cases in the US.
但在欧盟依然有十万例沙门氏菌感染病例，在美国有超过百万例。
In the US, leading to 23,000 hospitalizations and 450 people dead each year.
在美国，每年有两万三千人住院，四百五十人死亡。
With antibiotic-resistant salmonella on the rise, this death toll is likely to increase.
随着耐药沙门氏菌的增加，死亡病例也会增加。这
But it's not only about consuming yourself.
还不只是关乎个人食用。
This year, more than 100 people got infected with a multidrug-resistant salmonella after feeding pig ears, as a treat, to their dog.
今年，超过一百人受到了抗药性沙门氏菌的感染，只因为给他们的狗喂食了猪耳朵。
So we really must cut back on antibiotic use in animal production.
所以我们必须对动物使用抗生素有所节制。
And luckily, this is starting to happen.
好消息是，这种节制已经开始了。
The EU was the first region to ban putting antibiotics in low doses in the feed.
欧盟是首个禁止在饲料中添加小剂量抗生素的地区。
From '99 on, in several steps, the amount of different types of antibiotics allowed was reduced,
从1999年开始，分步实施，不同种类的抗生素用量都在减少，
and in 2006, a complete ban went into place.
到2006年，达到了全面禁止。
Antibiotics were only allowed when a veterinarian determined the animal was sick.
只有在兽医认为动物生病的情况下才可以使用抗生素。
Sounds great, right? Problem solved. No, wait, not so fast.
听起来很棒，对吗？问题解决了。并没有这么快。
As soon as the reduction program started,
减药计划一开始，
it was very quickly discovered that antibiotics had been the perfect blanket to cover up a lot of bad farm practices.
人们很快就发现抗生素完美地掩盖了农场很多不好的做法。
More and more animals became sick and needed to be cured with ... antibiotics.
越来越多动物生病，需要治疗...用抗生素。
So instead of the total amount going down, it actually increased.
结果用药总量不但没有下降，反而还上升了。
Surely, that was not the way to go. But luckily, that was not the end of the story.
当然，事情不能这样发展下去。幸运的是，故事没有结束。
The whole European agricultural sector started on a journey, and I think it's a journey anybody can learn from.
整个欧洲的农业部门开始了一段征程，我认为每个人都可以从这场征程中获益。
This is also the time I personally entered the scene.
这也是我个人涉入的时机。
I joined a large European feed compounder.
我加入了一家大型欧洲饲料混合公司。
A feed compounder makes a total diet for a farmer to feed to his animals
这家饲料混合公司为农户提供喂养动物的全部饲料，
and often also provides the advice on how to raise the animals in the best way.
也常常提供关于如何以最佳方式饲养动物的咨询意见。
I was really motivated to work together with my colleagues, veterinarians and, of course, the farmers
我非常有动力和同事们、兽医们、当然还有农户一起工作，
to figure out how to keep the animals healthy and antibiotic-free.
找出保证动物健康，又避免使用抗生素的办法。

Now there are three major things that need to happen for antibiotic-free production.
对于无抗生素产品，我们可以采取三项重要的措施。
Let me walk you through the playbook.
我们来一起看看是什么。
To start -- and it sounds very obvious -- that our hygiene is the place to start.
很明显，第一步是保持卫生。
Better cleaning of the stable and the drinking-water lines making it harder for the disease to come in and spread across the stable.
更清洁的畜棚和更干净的供水可以使病原体难以进入、难以在畜棚中蔓延。
That's all very important, but the part I was personally most interested in was better feeding for the animals, better nutrition.
这点很重要。但我个人最感兴趣的部分是如何更好地饲养动物，提供更好的营养。
Feeding a well-balanced diet is important.
用营养平衡的饲料进行喂养很重要。
Think about it this way: when you yourself do not eat enough fiber, you do not feel well.
我们来这样想：你自己若是摄入的纤维不足，身体就会感觉不适。
Part of the food you consume is not digested by yourself but fermented in your large intestine by bacteria.
一部分的食物不能好好消化，细菌使其在大肠里发酵。
So you're feeding those microbes with part of your diet.
所以你是在用你自己的饮食喂养细菌。
Initially, most young animals were fed low-fiber, high-starch and protein, very finely ground and highly digestible diets.
最初，大多动物幼崽被喂养了低纤维、高淀粉和蛋白的饲料，研磨得很细，极易消化。
Like being yourself on a diet of hamburger buns, rice, waffles and protein bars.
就像你自己的汉堡包、米饭、华夫饼和蛋白质棒的饮食。
We changed this to a lower-protein, higher-fiber, coarser type of diet.
我们把这个改为低蛋白、高纤维素、粗糙的饮食。
Like being on a diet of whole grains, salad with meat or beans.
就像我们的全麦、有肉类和豆类的沙拉。
This shifted the bacterial flora in the animals' guts to the more beneficial ones
这就用更有益的细菌代替了动物肠道中的细菌菌群，
and reduced the chance that pathogens would flourish.
并减少了病原体繁殖的机会。
You might be surprised but not only diet composition, also diet structure plays a role.
你可能还会惊奇地发现，除了饮食的成分，饮食结构也能发挥积极的作用。
Simply the fact that the same diet is coarser will lead to a better-developed digestive tract, and thus, a healthier animal.
仅仅是粗糙的饮食都会让消化道更发达，因而让动物更加健康。
But the best part was that farmers started to buy this actually, too.
最令人欣喜的是，农户们实际上也开始购买这样的饲料。
Unlike some other parts of the world, Western European farmers mainly still make their independent buying decisions:
与世界上有些地方不同，西欧的农户大部分依旧独立做出购买决定：
who to buy the feed from and sell their animals to.
向谁购买饲料，以及将动物卖给谁。
So what you're actually selling in the end reflects the actual local need of these farmers.
所以最终的出售反映了当地对农户的需求。
For example, the protein content in piglet diets in countries that are much more vigilant in reducing antibiotics,
例如，猪仔饲料中的蛋白含量，在对抗生素保持高度警惕的国家，
like, for example, Germany and the Netherlands,
像德国和荷兰，
were already 10 to 15 percent lower than in a country like the UK, which was slower to pick this up.
比采取措施慢的国家，像英国，已经低了百分之十到十五。
But, like with better hygiene, better nutrition helps but will not totally prevent you from becoming sick.
如同改善卫生条件一样，改善饮食也有助于预防疾病，但并不能完全根除。
So more is needed. And that's why we turned to the microbiome.
所以我们需要做更多的事情。这是我们求助于微生物组的原因。
Making the water with the feed more acidic
让饲料中的水呈酸性
helps to create an environment that benefits the more beneficial bacteria and inhibits the pathogens.
有助于建立对有益细菌更好的生存环境，并可抑制病原体的生长。
Like fermented food, whether it's yogurt, sauerkraut or salami, they'll all spoil less quickly, too.
就像发酵过的食物，酸奶、酸菜和腊肠，都不会很快变质。
Now, with modern techniques, like the ones based on DNA testing,
如今利用现代技术，例如基于DNA测试的技术，
we can see that there are many more different microorganisms present.
我们可以看到存在更多不同的微生物。
And this ecosystem, which we call the microbiome, is much more complex.
这种我们称之为微生物组的生态系统要复杂很多。
Turns out there are about eight times more microorganisms in your gut as tissue cells in your body.
事实证明，肠道中的微生物数量是体内组织细胞数量的八倍。
And for animals, the impact is no less.
对于动物的影响也旗鼓相当。
So if we want to work without antibiotics in animal production, we have to make the animals much more robust.
所以如果我们要让动物产品中不含抗生素，就需要让动物更加健壮。
So that when a disease strikes, the animals are much more resilient.
这样当病菌来袭，动物就能具有更强的抵抗力。
And this three-pronged nutribiosis approach involving the host, nutrition and the microbiome is the way to do it.
这种三管齐下，涉及饲养环境、营养和微生物组的营养疗法才是正确的方法。
Now the practice of raising animals on an antibiotic-containing or antibiotic-use-provoking diet is a bit cheaper at farm level.
现在用含抗生素饲养动物的做法或激发使用抗生素的方法对农场来说要便宜一些。
But in the end, we are talking about a few percent at the consumer level.
但最终我们谈及的是在消费者那边百分之几的差异。
That's actually quite affordable for the middle- and high-income part of the world population.
对世界上中高水平收入的人群来说，还是承担得起的。
And a very small price to pay when our own health or our loved ones' health is at stake.
考虑到我们和亲人的健康，那是一个很小的代价。
So what do you think, what direction do we take?
那么大家认为我们应该走向哪个方向？
Do we allow antimicrobial resistance to become our biggest killer, at huge financial and a special personal cost?
我们是要让耐药抗生素变成最大的杀手，以巨大的社会经济和个人健康为代价？
Or do we, besides reducing human antibiotic consumption, truly start embracing antibiotic-free animal production?
还是我们在减少人类抗生素使用的同时，真正开始准备迎接无抗生素的肉类产品？
For me, the choice is very obvious.
对我来说，如何选择是很明显的。
But to make this happen, we have to set reduction targets and make sure that they're followed all around the world.
但要实现这个目标，我们需要设置削减目标，保证全世界都会遵守。
Because farmers compete with each other.
因为农户们都在相互竞争。
And at a country level, trading block or the global market, costs are very important. And also, we have to be realistic.
在国家层面，贸易壁垒或全球化的市场，成本非常重要。我们也必须实际一些。
Farmers need to have the possibilities to invest more in better management and better feed in order to achieve this reduction.
农民需要有更多的机会投资于更好的管理和更好的饲料，以实现减少抗生素的目标。
And besides legal limits, the market can play a role, by offering antibiotic-reduced or antibiotic-free products.
除了法律上的限制，市场也可以通过提供抗生素少或无抗生素的产品来发挥作用。
And with growing consumer awareness, these market forces will increase in power.
随着消费者的觉醒，市场的力量将会增加。
Now everything I've been talking about seems to be great for us.
我现在谈论的事情看来对我们很棒。
But what about the animals? Now, guess what, their lives get better, too.
但是动物们呢？你猜怎么样，它们的日子也会更好。
Better health, less stress, happier life. So now you know.
更加健康、更少压力、更幸福的生活。所以你们现在知道了。
We have the knowledge how to produce meat, eggs and milk without or with very low amounts of antibiotics,
我们有不用抗生素，或使用很少抗生素生产肉类、蛋类和乳制品的知识，
and I'll argue it's a small price to pay to avoid a future in which bacterial infections again become our biggest killer. Thank you.
我会说这是避免细菌感染再次成为我们最大杀手所付的很小的代价。谢谢。