Strap yourselves in, we're going to Mars.
大家做好准备，我们要去火星。
Not just a few astronauts -- thousands of people are going to colonize Mars.
不仅仅是一些宇航员，成千上万的人准备殖民火星。
And I am telling you that they're going to do this soon.
相信我，这将发生在不久的将来。。
Some of you will end up working on projects on Mars, and I guarantee that some of your children will end up living there.
你们当中的一些人将留在火星工作，我保证，你们的孩子也将一直留在那里。
That probably sounds preposterous, so I'm going to share with you how and when that will happen.
这可能听起来很荒谬。所以我将和各位分享这如何发生，何时发生。
But first I want to discuss the obvious question: Why the heck should we do this?
首先我想讨论一个显而易见的问题：我们为什么要这么做？
12 years ago, I gave a TED talk on 10 ways the world could end suddenly.
12年前，我在TED进行了一场关于十种世界突然毁灭的方式的演讲。
We are incredibly vulnerable to the whims of our own galaxy.
我们在宇宙的奇思妙想面前，真的难以置信的脆弱。
A single, large asteroid could take us out forever.
单单一颗略大的小行星，就可以让我们永远消失。
To survive we have to reach beyond the home planet.
为了生存，我们必须有后备的星球。
Think what a tragedy it would be if all that humans have accomplished were suddenly obliterated.
试想如果人类所创造的所有成就瞬间消失，那将是多大的悲剧啊。
And there's another reason we should go: exploration is in our DNA.
还有一个原因：我们生而勇于探索。
Two million years ago humans evolved in Africa
两百万年前起源于非洲的人类，
and then slowly but surely spread out across the entire planet by reaching into the wilderness that was beyond their horizons.
缓慢却坚定地探索着望不到尽头的荒野，最终足迹遍布了整个星球。
This stuff is inside us. And they prospered doing that.
这是我们的灵魂。而且他们成功了。
Some of the greatest advances in civilization and technology came because we explored.
因为我们不停的探索，文明和科技都取得了长足的进步。
Yes, we could do a lot of good with the money it will take to establish a thriving colony on Mars.
当然我们可以用钱搞定很多事情，去建立一个蒸蒸日上的火星殖民地。
And yes we should all be taking far better care of our own home planet.
当然，我们也应该更好地管理和爱护我们自己的星球。
And yes, I worry we could screw up Mars the way we've screwed up Earth.
当然，我担心就像我们搞砸了地球一样，我们可能也会搞砸火星。
But think for a moment, what we had when John F. Kennedy told us we would put a human on the moon.
不过先想一想，当肯尼迪总统向所有人宣布我们可以把一个人类送到月球上时。
He excited an entire generation to dream. Think how inspired we will be to see a landing on Mars.
他点燃了整代人的梦想。试想为了登陆火星，我们将受到多么大的鼓舞。
Perhaps then we will look back at Earth and see that that is one people instead of many and perhaps then we will look back at Earth,
也许孤身一人时，会回想地球的时光，会回想地球的美好，
as we struggle to survive on Mars, and realize how precious the home planet is.
也许我们在火星顽强生存时，会意识到家的宝贵。
So let me tell you about the extraordinary adventure we're about to undertake.
下面我来介绍我们将进行的神奇旅程。
But first, a few fascinating facts about where we're going.
首先，介绍一下我们将要去的地方的奇妙之处。
This picture actually represents the true size of Mars compared to Earth. Mars is not our sister planet.
这张照片真实的反应了地球和火星的大小对比。火星不是我们的姊妹星球。
It's far less than half the size of the Earth, and yet despite the fact that it's smaller,
它比地球尺寸的一半还要小得多，不过虽然火星小一些，
the surface area of Mars that you can stand on is equivalent to the surface area of the Earth that you can stand on,
在火星上表面人类可以活动的面积和在地球上差不多大，
because the Earth is mostly covered by water.
因为地球主要被水覆盖。
The atmosphere on Mars is really thin -- 100 times thinner than on Earth -- and it's not breathable, it's 96 percent carbon dioxide.
火星的大气层非常稀薄，只有地球的厚度的百分之一，而且火星上不能呼吸，96%的空气是二氧化碳。
It's really cold there. The average temperature is minus 81 degrees, although there is quite a range of temperature.
火星非常冷。平均气温零下63摄氏度，昼夜温差也非常大。
A day on Mars is about as long as a day on Earth, plus about 39 minutes.
火星上的一昼夜的长短和地球上差不多，比地球长大约39分钟。
Seasons and years on Mars are twice as long as they are on Earth.
火星上的每个季节和每年的时间都是地球上的两倍长。
And for anybody who wants to strap on some wings and go flying one day, Mars has a lot less gravity than on Earth,
对那些想插上翅膀，在火星上飞的人来说，火星的重力比地球小很多，
and it's the kind of place where you can jump over your car instead of walk around it.
所以是个好选择。不用绕过你的车，你可以直接跳过去。
Now, as you can see, Mars isn't exactly Earth-like, but it's by far the most livable other place in our entire solar system.
如你所见，火星并不是像地球，但是这是整个太阳系里除地球外最适合居住的地方了。
Here's the problem. Mars is a long way away, a thousand times farther away from us than our own moon.
不过有个问题。去火星路途遥远，是地月距离的一千倍。
The Moon is 250,000 miles away and it took Apollo astronauts three days to get there.
月亮在四十万公里外，阿波罗号载着宇航员去那里要三天的时间。
Mars is 250 million miles away and it will take us eight months to get there -- 240 days.
火星在四亿公里以外，要八个月我们才能到达，也就是240天。
And that's only if we launch on a very specific day, at a very specific time, once every two years,
而且我们每年只有两次机会，在这个特殊的日子，特殊的时间降落，
when Mars and the Earth are aligned just so, so the distance that the rocket would have to travel will be the shortest.
趁地球和火星成一条线的的时候，因为这时候火箭运行的距离才是最短的。
240 days is a long time to spend trapped with your colleagues in a tin can.
所有人在火箭里待240天简直就是度日如年。
And meanwhile, our track record of getting to Mars is lousy.
而且翻看过去我们去火星的记录，也不是很理想。
We and the Russians, the Europeans, the Japanese, the Chinese and the Indians,
我们、俄罗斯人、欧洲人、日本人、中国人和印度人，
have actually sent 44 rockets there, and the vast majority of them have either missed or crashed.
一共发射了44只火箭，大部分都消失或者坠毁了。
Only about a third of the missions to Mars have been successful.
只有三分之一的火箭成功到达了火星。
And we don't at the moment have a rocket big enough to get there anyway.
而且我们现在也没有可以到达火星的足够大的火箭。
We once had that rocket, the Saturn V. A couple of Saturn Vs would have gotten us there.
我们曾经有一只叫做土星五号的大火箭。几只土星五号就可以把我们送过去。
It was the most magnificent machine ever built by humans, and it was the rocket that took us to the Moon.
那是人类迄今为止制造的最大的机器，它也正是带我们去月球的那只火箭。
But the last Saturn V was used in 1973 to launch the Skylab space station,
但是1973年，最后一枚土星五号被发射到天空实验室空间站，
and we decided to do something called the shuttle instead of continuing on to Mars after we landed on the Moon.
在登陆月球之后，我们决定使用航天飞机来执行后续的火星之旅。
The biggest rocket we have now is only half big enough to get us anything to Mars.
我们现有的最大火箭，只有前往火星所需火箭的一半大小。
So getting to Mars is not going to be easy and that brings up a really interesting question ...
所以去火星并不容易。那么问题来了，
how soon will the first humans actually land here?
第一批人类登陆火星还要多久？
Now, some pundits think if we got there by 2050, that'd be a pretty good achievement.
一些专家认为进展顺利的话，2025年我们可以成功登陆火星。
These days, NASA seems to be saying that it can get humans to Mars by 2040. Maybe they can.
最近NASA似乎认为2040年前就可以送人类登陆火星。也许他们可以做到。
I believe that they can get human beings into Mars orbit by 2035.
我认为他们可以在2035年之前就把人送入火星轨道。
But frankly, I don't think they're going to bother in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars, because we will already be there.
但是坦白说，我不认为他们在2035年还会操心发射火箭到火星的事情，因为我们已经在那里了。
We're going to land on Mars in 2027. And the reason is this man is determined to make that happen.
我们将要在2027年登陆火星。因为有人下决心做到这件事。
His name is Elon Musk, he's the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX.
他叫埃隆·马斯克，特斯拉和SpaceX公司的CEO。
Now, he actually told me that we would land on Mars by 2025,
实际上他跟我说，2025年前我们就可以登陆火星，
but Elon Musk is more optimistic than I am -- and that's going a ways -- so I'm giving him a couple of years of slack.
但是埃隆·马斯克比我要乐观，这是他的行事方式，所以我多给他两年作为缓冲。
Still... you've got to ask yourself, can this guy really do this by 2025 or 2027?
不过，大家可能会怀疑，这个人真的可以在2025年到2027年间做到么？
Well, let's put a decade with Elon Musk into a little perspective.
我们先看一下有埃隆·马斯克的十年是如何发展的。
Where was this 10 years ago? That's the Tesla electric automobile.
十年前是怎样的？这是特斯拉电动汽车。
In 2005, a lot of people in the automobile industry were saying, we would not have a decent electric car for 50 years.
2005年，很多汽车产业的人表示，50年后我们才会有一辆高级的电动汽车。
And where was that? That is SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, lifting six tons of supplies to the International Space Station.
十年前的火箭产业呢？这是SpaceX的猎鹰9号运载火箭，满载六吨物资去往国际空间站。
10 years ago, SpaceX had not launched anything, or fired a rocket to anywhere.
十年前，SpaceX还没有发射过任何火箭。
So I think it's a pretty good bet that the person who is revolutionizing the automobile industry in less than 10 years
所以我认为，一个用不到十年时间颠覆整个汽车产业，
and the person who created an entire rocket company in less than 10 years will get us to Mars by 2027.
并且白手起家、创造整个火箭产业的人，是可以在2027年前带我们上火星的。
Now, you need to know this: governments and robots no longer control this game.
你要知道：政府和机器人不再是太空飞行的掌控者。
Private companies are leaping into space and they will be happy to take you to Mars.
私人公司进入太空领域，并且他们很乐意带我们去火星。
And that raises a really big question. Can we actually live there?
这就产生了关键性问题。我们真的可以在那里生活吗？
Now, NASA may not be able to get us there until 2040, or we may get there a long time before NASA,
在2040年之前，NASA可能无法送我们去那里，或者我们在NASA之前就做到了，
but NASA has taken a huge responsibility in figuring out how we can live on Mars.
但NASA肩负了确保人类在火星上生存的巨大责任。
Let's look at the problem this way. Here's what you need to live on Earth: food, water, shelter and clothing.
换个方式来看这个难题。这是你在地球上生活的必需品：食品、水、住所和衣物。
And here's what you need to live on Mars: all of the above, plus oxygen.
而在火星上的必需品是上述所有，加上氧气。
So let's look at the most important thing on this list first.
因此，我们先来看清单中最重要部分。
Water is the basis of all life as we know it, and it's far too heavy for us to carry water from the Earth to Mars to live,
如众所知，水是所有生命的基础，要把水从地球运到火星是不实际的，
so we have to find water if our life is going to succeed on Mars.
所以，要在火星上生存就必须找到水。
And if you look at Mars, it looks really dry, it looks like the entire planet is a desert.
但你来看火星，它看起来非常干旱，整颗星球就像一个沙漠。
But it turns out that it's not. The soil alone on Mars contains up to 60 percent water.
但事实证明，并非如此。火星土壤含水量可高达60％。
And a number of orbiters that we still have flying around Mars have shown us -- and by the way,
从许多绕火星飞行的人造卫星所获得的资料--顺便说一下，
that's a real photograph -- that lots of craters on Mars have a sheet of water ice in them.
这是张真实的照片--火星上很多火山口都覆盖一层冰水物质。
It's not a bad place to start a colony.
在这里建立殖民地就不错。
Now, here's a view of a little dig the Phoenix Lander did in 2008,
这张2008年拍摄的照片，展示了凤凰号登陆器的挖掘实景，
showing that just below the surface of the soil is ice -- that white stuff is ice.
可以看到土壤表层下是冰。那白色的物体就是冰。
In the second picture, which is four days later than the first picture, you can see that some of it is evaporating.
在第二张照片里，是上张照片的四天后所拍摄的，你可以看到，有一部分冰蒸发了。
Orbiters also tell us that there are huge amounts of underground water on Mars as well as glaciers.
人造卫星也告诉我们，火星上有大量地下水以及冰川。
In fact, if only the water ice at the poles on Mars melted, most of the planet would be under 30 feet of water.
实际上，如果仅仅火星两极的冰盖融化，星球的大部分将淹没在30英尺的水之下。

So there's plenty of water there, but most of it's ice, most of it's underground,
所以，火星水源充足，但大部分是冰，大部分也储存于地表之下，
it takes a lot of energy to get it and a lot of human labor.
需要大量的能源和人力去开采。
This is a device cooked up at the University of Washington back in 1998. It's basically a low-tech dehumidifier.
这是华盛顿大学早在1998年所发明的设备。这基本上就是个低技术的除湿机。
And it turns out the Mars atmosphere is often 100 percent humid.
而事实证明，火星大气层常处于100％的湿度。
So this device can extract all the water that humans will need simply from the atmosphere on Mars.
所以这个设备可以简单的从大气层提取人类所需的水。
Next we have to worry about what we will breathe.
接下来要考虑如何呼吸的问题。
Frankly, I was really shocked to find out that NASA has this problem worked out.
坦率地说，发现这已被NASA解决的时候，我非常震惊。
This is a scientist at MIT named Michael Hecht. And he's developed this machine, Moxie.
这是MIT（麻省理工学院）的科学家，迈克尔·赫克特。他研发了这台名为莫可西的机器。
I love this thing. It's a reverse fuel cell, essentially, that sucks in the Martian atmosphere and pumps out oxygen.
我相当喜欢它。它实质上是一个反向燃料电池，吸入火星大气然后排出氧气。
And you have to remember that CO2 -- carbon dioxide, which is 96 percent of Mars' atmosphere -- CO2 is basically 78 percent oxygen.
而且你要记住，CO2--二氧化碳，占了火星大气层的96%--但CO2中的78％就是氧。
Now, the next big rover that NASA sends to Mars in 2020 is going to have one of these devices aboard,
NASA计划在2020年，在发送到火星的大型登陆车上安装这样的装置，
and it will be able to produce enough oxygen to keep one person alive indefinitely.
并且它能制造满足一个人一生所需的氧气量。
But the secret to this -- and that's just for testing
这还有一个秘密--当然这还在测试阶段，
the secret to this is that this thing was designed from the get-go to be scalable by a factor of 100.
这组机器的设计初衷就是要能扩大100倍。
Next, what will we eat? Well, we'll use hydroponics to grow food,
好吧，我们吃什么呢？我们将用水培法来种植粮食，
but we're not going to be able to grow more than 15 to 20 percent of our food there,
但我们只打算种植出不超过我们所需食物量的15％到20％，
at least not until water is running on the surface of Mars and we actually have the probability and the capability of planting crops.
除非水已经在火星的表面上流淌成河，并且我们真的能种植农作物并确保成功率。
In the meantime, most of our food will arrive from Earth, and it will be dried.
同时，我们大部分的食物会从地球运送，是脱水干燥食物。
And then we need some shelter. At first we can use inflatable, pressurized buildings as well as the landers themselves.
而且，我们需要住所。首先，我们住在充气加压式建筑物以及登陆器本身。
But this really only works during the daytime.
但是，这只在白天才能住。
There is too much solar radiation and too much radiation from cosmic rays. So we really have to go underground.
太阳辐射以及宇宙射太多。所以，我们需要住在地下。
Now, it turns out that the soil on Mars, by and large, is perfect for making bricks.
目前已证实，火星大部分的土壤，非常适合制造砖块。
And NASA has figured this one out, too.
NASA也已得出这样的结论。
They're going to throw some polymer plastic into the bricks, shove them in a microwave oven,
他们会在砖块中加入高分子塑料，放在微波炉中挤压，
and then you will be able to build buildings with really thick walls.
然后就可以造出厚重砖墙的建筑物。
Or we may choose to live underground in caves or in lava tubes, of which there are plenty.
或者，我们可以选择住在地下，洞穴或熔岩管，这样的地方火星上有很多。
And finally there's clothing. On Earth we have miles of atmosphere piled up on us,
最后还有衣服。在地球上，几英里厚的大气层堆积在我们之上，
which creates 15 pounds of pressure on our bodies at all times, and we're constantly pushing out against that.
我们身体一直承受着15磅的压力，所以我们身体在不停的抵抗。
On Mars there's hardly any atmospheric pressure. So Dava Newman, a scientist at MIT, has created this sleek space suit.
火星上几乎没有任何大气压力。所以达瓦·纽曼，这位MIT的科学家，设计了这件光滑太空服。
It will keep us together, block radiation and keep us warm.
它将我们连在一起，阻挡辐射并保持温暖。
So let's think about this for a minute. Food, shelter, clothing, water, oxygen ... we can do this.
到此，我们回顾一下。食品，住房，衣服，水，氧气... 我们都能办到。
We really can. But it's still a little complicated and a little difficult.
全部都能。但实际操作难免复杂困难。
So that leads to the next big -- really big step -- in living the good life on Mars.
所以接下来的问题--是非常关键的--那就是要在火星上生活得好。
And that's terraforming the planet: making it more like Earth, reengineering an entire planet.
这就需要改造整颗星球：让它地球化，改造整颗星球。
That sounds like a lot of hubris, but the truth is that the technology to do everything I'm about to tell you already exists.
这听起来非常的狂妄，但事实上，我们已具备所需的科技。
First we've got to warm it up. Mars is incredibly cold because it has a very thin atmosphere.
首先，我们得把温度提高。火星太冷，因为它的大气层非常稀薄。
The answer lies here, at the south pole and at the north pole of Mars,
解决方法就在火星的两极，
both of which are covered with an incredible amount of frozen carbon dioxide -- dry ice.
那里覆盖着大量的固态二氧化碳--干冰。
If we heat it up, it sublimes directly into the atmosphere and thickens the atmosphere the same way it does on Earth.
如果我们把它加热一下，它直接气化到大气层，用在地球上同样的方式来加厚大气层。
And as we know, CO2 is an incredibly potent greenhouse gas.
而我们知道，CO2是一种强效温室气体。
Now, my favorite way of doing this is to erect a very, very large solar sail and focus it
目前，我最喜欢的加热方式是竖立巨大太阳帆，然后聚焦，
it essentially serves as a mirror -- and focus it on the south pole of Mars at first.
它实际上就是一面大镜子--然后先面向火星的南极。
As the planet spins, it will heat up all that dry ice, sublime it, and it will go into the atmosphere.
随着火星自转时，太阳帆会加热气化所有的干冰，然后进入大气层。
It actually won't take long for the temperature on Mars to start rising, probably less than 20 years.
这其实并不需要很长时间，火星地表温度开始上升，整个过程不用20年。
Right now, on a perfect day at the equator, in the middle of summer on Mars,
在此之后，火星的夏季中期的晴天，赤道的温度，
temperatures can actually reach 70 degrees, but then they go down to minus 100 at night.
可以达到70度，但夜间还是会降到零下100度。
What we're shooting for is a runaway greenhouse effect: enough temperature rise to see a lot of that ice on Mars
我们在专注在温室效应试验：温度上升，火星上大多数的冰，
especially the ice in the ground -- melt. Then we get some real magic.
特别是地表冰层，会融化。接下来，见证奇迹的时刻到了。
As the atmosphere gets thicker, everything gets better.
当大气层变厚，一切会变得更好。
We get more protection from radiation, more atmosphere makes us warmer, makes the planet warmer,
更多保护让我们远离辐射，加厚的大气层让整个星球变暖，
so we get running water and that makes crops possible.
我们有了流动的水，就可能实现农耕。
Then more water vapor goes into the air, forming yet another potent greenhouse gas.
然后更多的水蒸汽进入空气中，形成另一种强效温室气体。
It will rain and it will snow on Mars.
火星上就会下雨下雪。
And a thicker atmosphere will create enough pressure so that we can throw away those space suits.
更厚的大气层将创造足够的压力，我们就能脱掉太空服。
We only need about five pounds of pressure to survive.
我们只需大约5磅的大气压就能生存。
Eventually, Mars will be made to feel a lot like British Columbia.
最终，火星感觉很像英属哥伦比亚。
We'll still be left with the complicated problem of making the atmosphere breathable,
我们在将空气转变成适合人类呼吸的方面还有一些复杂的问题，
and frankly that could take 1,000 years to accomplish.
坦率地说，这可能需要上千年来完成。
But humans are amazingly smart and incredibly adaptable.
但是，人类的智慧和适应性都是超群的。
There is no telling what our future technology will be able to accomplish and no telling what we can do with our own bodies.
现在不能保证未来不会有技术能实现，也不能保证我们的身体会进化成什么样。
In biology right now, we are on the very verge of being able to control our own genetics,
现在的生物学，我们即将做到能控制我们的每一个基因、
what the genes in our own bodies are doing, and certainly, eventually, our own evolution.
在身体里的作用，当然，最终控制自身的进化。
We could end up with a species of human being on Earth that is slightly different from the species of human beings on Mars.
最终在地球上的人类和火星上人类会略有不同。
But what would you do there? How would you live? It's going to be the same as it is on Earth.
但你会在火星上做什么呢？你将如何生活？和在地球上一样。
Somebody's going to start a restaurant, somebody's going to build an iron foundry.
有人要开餐厅，有人要建铸铁厂。
Someone will make documentary movies of Mars and sell them on Earth.
有人拍火星纪录片，卖给地球上的人。
Some idiot will start a reality TV show.
一些白痴开始做一文件电视真人秀节目。
There will be software companies, there will be hotels, there will be bars.
这里将会有软件公司，也会有酒店酒吧。
This much is certain: it will be the most disruptive event in our lifetimes, and I think it will be the most inspiring.
有一点是肯定的：这将是我们有生之年最爆炸性的事件，这也是最鼓舞人心的。
Ask any 10-year-old girl if she wants to go to Mars.
问一个10岁女孩愿意去火星吗。
Children who are now in elementary school are going to choose to live there.
现在读小学的孩子将选择是否住在那里。
Remember when we landed humans on the Moon?
回想当我们在月球登陆时发生了什么？
When that happened, people looked at each other and said, "If we can do this, we can do anything."
人们对视，说：“如果这我们也能做到，那我们无所不能。”
What are they going to think when we actually form a colony on Mars?
当我们成功建造火星殖民地时，大家会怎么看？
Most importantly, it will make us a spacefaring species.
最重要的是，我们会成为在宇宙中穿梭的物种。
And that means humans will survive no matter what happens on Earth.
这意味着不管地球遭遇什么，人类都将存活下去。
We will never be the last of our kind. Thank you.
我们这一种族绝对不会灭亡。谢谢。