So right now, nearly one billion people globally don't have access to electricity in their homes.
如今全球有近10亿人家中缺乏电力供应。
And in sub-Saharan Africa, more than half of the population remain in the dark.
而在撒哈拉以南非洲，超过半数的人口仍生活在黑暗之中。
So you probably all know this image from NASA.
你们或许都见过NASA的这张照片。
There's a name for this darkness. It's called "energy poverty,"
这片黑暗有一个名字，叫做“能源贫困”，
and it has massive implications for economic development and social well-being.
它对经济发展与社会福祉有深远的影响。
One unique aspect of the energy poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa
撒哈拉以南非洲的能源贫困问题有一点十分独特，
and by the way, in this talk when I "energy," I mean "electricity"
另外说明一下，在本次演讲中我所说的“能源”指的是“电力”，
one thing that's unique about it is there isn't much legacy infrastructure already in place in many countries of the region.
关于能源贫困问题的一个独特方面是，这个地区的很多国家缺少已经建好的遗留基础设施。
So, for example, according to 2015 data, the total installed electricity capacity in sub-Saharan Africa is only about 100 gigawatts.
举个例子，根据2015年的数据，撒哈拉以南非洲的总装机容量只有约100吉瓦（GW）。
That's similar to that of the UK.
与英国的总装机容量差不多。
So this actually presents a unique opportunity to build an energy system in the 21st century almost from scratch.
这其实提供了一个独特的机会，让我们能够在21世纪几乎从零开始构建一个能源系统。
The question is: How do you do that?
问题在于：怎样才能达成这个目标呢？
We could look back to the past and replicate the ways
我们可以回首过去，效仿以前的做法，
in which we've managed to bring stable, affordable electricity to a big part of the world's population.
这些办法曾经将稳定、廉价的电力带给世界上大多数人口。
But we all know that that has some well-known terrible side effects,
但我们都知道，过去的做法有一些众所周知的可怕的副作用，
such as pollution and climate change, in addition to being costly and inefficient.
比如环境污染和气候变化，以及高昂的成本与低下的效率。
With Africa's population set to quadruple by the end of the century, this is not a theoretical question.
随着非洲的人口预计在本世纪末增加四倍，我们面对的并非只是理论上的问题。
Africa needs a lot of energy, and it needs it fast, because its population is booming and its economy needs to develop.
非洲需要大量能源，这个需求迫在眉睫，因为非洲的人口正在激增，非洲的经济需要发展。
So for most countries, the general trajectory of electrification has been as follows.
对大部分国家来说，电气化的一般轨迹是这样的。
First, large-scale grid infrastructure is put in place, usually with significant public investment.
首先，铺设好大型电网基础设施，这一般需要大量公共投资。
That infrastructure then powers productive centers,
那些基础设施随后为生产中心供能，
such as factories, agricultural mechanization, commercial enterprises and the like.
比如工厂、机械化农业、商业企业等等。
And this then stimulates economic growth, creating jobs, raising incomes
这得以刺激经济增长，创造就业，提高收入，
and producing a virtuous cycle that helps more people afford more appliances, which then creates residential demand for electricity.
建立起一个能帮助更多人购置电器的良性循环，从而创造居民对电力的需求。
But in sub-Saharan Africa, despite decades of energy projects, we haven't really seen these benefits.
但在撒哈拉以南非洲，尽管能源项目开展了数十年，我们并没有观察到这些效益。
The energy projects have often been characterized by waste, corruption and inefficiency;
这些能源项目常常意味着污染、腐败、效率低下；
our rural electrification rates are really low, and our urban rates could be better;
我们的农村电气化普及率非常低，城市的电气化普及率也有提升的空间；
the reliability of our electricity is terrible; and we have some of the highest electricity prices in the whole world.
我们的电力可靠性很糟糕；我们的电费高居全世界的榜首。
And on top of all of this, we are now facing the impacts of the growing climate catastrophe head-on.
在此之上，我们如今正在直面日渐严重的气候灾难带来的影响。
So Africa will need to find a different path.
非洲需要寻求一条不同的道路。
And, as it turns out, we are now witnessing some pretty exciting disruption in the African energy space.
而事实证明，我们现在正在见证非洲能源市场中一些激动人心的变革。
This new path is called off-grid solar, and it's enabled by cheap solar panels,
这条崭新的道路叫做“离网太阳能”，它的诞生结合了廉价太阳能板，
advances in LED and battery technology, and combined with innovative business models.
LED和电池科技的发展，以及创新性的商业模型。
So these off-grid solar products typically range from a single light
这些离网太阳能产品多种多样，从简单的一盏灯，
to home system kits that can charge phones, power a television or run a fan.
到能够给手机充电、给电视供能、让电扇运转的居家系统组件。
I want to be clear: off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa.
我想强调的是：离网太阳能在非洲非常重要。
I have worked in the sector for years, and these products are enabling us to extend basic energy services
我在这个领域工作多年，而这些产品能让我们把基本的能源服务
to some of the world's poorest, raising their quality of life.
送到世界上最为贫穷的人们手中，提升了他们的生活质量。
This is a very good and a very important thing.
这是件很好、很重要的事情。
However, off-grid solar will not solve energy poverty in Africa,
但是，离网太阳能并不能解决非洲能源贫困的问题，
and for that matter, neither will a top-down effort to connect every unserved household to the grid.
就这一点来说，自上而下、将每一个未通电的家庭连接到电网上的尝试，也不能解决这个问题。
See, I'm not here to rehash that played-out "on-versus-off-grid" or "old-versus-new" debate.
我并不想老调重谈地再议关于“入网还是离网”或者“老技术还是新技术”的争论。
Instead, I believe that our inability to grapple with and truly address energy poverty in Africa stems from three main sources.
反之，我相信，我们之所以无法掌控并真正解决非洲的资源贫困问题，其主要原因有三点。
First, we don't really have a clear understanding of what energy poverty is, or how deep it goes.
第一，我们对能源贫困是什么，以及其扎根之深度并没有一个清楚的认知。
Second, we are avoiding complex systemic issues and prefer quick fixes.
第二，我们在逃避复杂的体系上的问题，而倾向于快速的权宜之计。
And third, we are misdirecting concerns about climate change.
第三，我们在误导对于气候变化的关注。
Combined, these three mistakes are leading us to impose a Western debate on the future of energy
这三个错误相结合，导致我们对能源的未来施加了西式的辩论，
and falling back on paternalistic attitudes towards Africa.
重蹈了对非洲家长式态度的覆辙。
So let me try and unpack these three questions. First, what exactly is energy poverty?
那么，请让我试图理清这三个问题。首先，能源贫困到底是什么？
The main energy poverty targeted indicator is enshrined in the UN's Seventh Sustainable Development Goal, or SDG 7.
能源贫困的主要针对性指标记载于联合国的第七个可持续发展目标，即SDG7之中。
It calls for 100 percent of the world's population to have access to electricity by the year 2030.
这个目标呼吁，到2030年，确保世界上所有人都能获得电力。
This binary threshold, however, ignores the quality, reliability or utility of the power,
然而，这个二元化的门槛忽略了能源的质量、可靠性和效用，
though indicators are currently being developed that will try and capture these things.
不过目前我们正在研发能够尝试捕捉这些要点的指标。
However, the question of when a household is considered "connected" is not quite clear-cut.
但是，一家住户何时能被视作“通电”的评判标准并不明确。
So, for example, last year the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared all of the villages in India electrified,
举个例子，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在去年宣布，印度境内全部村庄都通了电，
the criteria for electrification being a transformer in every village
而电气化的标准是每个村庄配备一座变电站，
plus its public centers and 10 percent -- 10 percent -- of its households connected.
加上它的公共中心，和百分之十--没错，百分之十的居民能够通电。
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, which tracks progress against SDG 7,
与此同时，负责跟踪SDG7进度的国际能源署
defines energy access as 50 kilowatt hours per person per year.
将能源获取的标准定义为每人每年50度电。
That's enough to power some light bulbs and charge a phone, perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan for a few hours a day.
50度电足够点亮几盏灯泡，给一台手机充电，大概每天也能让低功耗电视或者风扇运行几个小时。
Now, providing entry-level access is an important first step, but let's not romanticize the situation.
提供入门级别的电力获取是重要的第一步，但是我们还是不要过于美化这种状况。
By any standard, a few lights and not much else is still living in energy poverty.
无论以何种标准来看，如果只能点亮几盏灯，仍然相当于生活在能源贫困之中。
And what's more, these energy poverty indicators and targets cover only residential use.
更有甚者，这些能源贫困的指标与目标涵盖的仅仅是居民用电。
And yet, households account for just about one quarter of the world's electricity consumption.
然而，居家用电仅占世界耗电总量的四分之一。
That's because most of our power is used in industries and for commerce.
这是因为我们大部分的电力都用在工业与商贸上。
Which brings me to my main point:
这也引出了我的主要论点：
countries cannot grow out of poverty without access to abundant, affordable and reliable electricity to power these productive centers,
国家想要脱离贫困，不能没有能驱动各个生产中心的丰富的、廉价的、可靠的电力，
or what I call "Energy for Growth."
我将其称为“发展用能源”。
As you can see from this graph, there's simply no such thing as a low-energy, high-income country. It doesn't exist.
从这幅图表可以看出，根本没有所谓的低能耗、高收入国家。这种国家并不存在。
And yet, three billion people in the world currently live in countries without reliable, affordable electricity
然而，世界上有30亿人口目前居住的国家缺乏可靠的、廉价的电力，
not just to power their homes but also their factories, their office buildings, their data centers and other economic activities.
他们不仅无法为家里供电，也无法为工厂，办公楼，数据中心，以及其他经济活动提供电力支持。

Merely electrifying households and microenterprises cannot solve this deeper energy poverty.
仅仅为家庭和微型企业供电根本无法解决这个更深层的能源贫困问题。
To solve energy poverty, we need to deliver reliable, affordable electricity at scale,
为了解决能源贫困问题，我们需要大规模地输送可靠的、廉价的电力，
to power economy-wide job creation and income growth.
从而为整个社会工作岗位的创造与收入增长提供动力。
This need, however, bumps against an emerging narrative that, faced with climate change,
但是，这个需求却和一个渐渐浮现的观点产生了矛盾，这个观点声称，面对当今的气候变化，
we all need to transition from large, centralized power systems to small-scale distributed power.
我们都需要实现从大型、集中式能源系统到小型、分散式能源的转型。
The growth of off-grid solar in Africa -- and let me repeat, off-grid solar is a good thing
非洲的离网太阳能正在发展--我重申一次，离网太阳能是好东西，
but that growth fits nicely into this narrative and has led to those claims
但是这种发展很好地契合了这一观点，从而导致有人声称，
that Africa is leapfrogging the old ways of energy and building its power system from the ground up, one solar panel at a time.
非洲正在绕过传统能源范式进行跨越式发展，从零开始、一块一块太阳能板地打造自己的能源系统。
It's a nice, solicitous narrative, but also quite naïve.
这是一个好听的、诱人的说法，但同时也很天真。
Like many narratives of technological disruption, often inspired by Silicon Valley,
这个说法和很多关于受硅谷启发所诞生的颠覆性科技的叙述一样，
it takes for granted the existing systems that underpin all of this transformation.
这种说法同样认为，作为这些转型的基础，这些现有系统的存在是理所当然的。
You see, when it comes to innovating and energy, the West is working around the edges of a system that is tried and tested.
当谈到创新与能源时，西方正在研究一个尝试过和测试过的体系的边缘。
And so all the sexy stuff -- the rooftop solar, the smart household devices, the electric vehicles
所有那些吸引眼球的东西--屋顶太阳能电池，智能居家设备，电动汽车，
all of this is built on top of a massive and absolutely essential grid, which itself exists within a proven governance framework.
这些都建立在一张庞大的、至关重要的电网之上，这张电网本身也置身于一个经过证明的管理框架之中。
Even the most advanced countries in the world don't have an example of an energy system that is all edges and no center at scale.
即使是世界上最先进的国家，也没有一个只有边缘、没有中心的大型能源系统的案例。
So ultimately, no approach -- be it centralized or distributed, renewable or fossil-based -- can succeed in solving energy poverty
归根结底，非洲的能源贫困依然无解，不管是集中式还是分散式系统、可再生还是化石能源，
without finding a way to deliver reliable, affordable electricity to Africa's emerging industrial and commercial sectors.
如果找不到方法将可靠、廉价的电力输送到非洲萌芽的工业与商业领域。
So, it's not just lights in every rural home.
所以，我们并不只是要点亮每一户农村家庭。
It's power for Africa's cities that are growing fast and increasingly full of young, capable people in desperate need of a job.
我们要为非洲快速发展的城市提供能源，这些城市愈发充斥着年轻有为的人们，他们迫切需要工作。
This in turn will require significant interconnectivity and economies of scale,
这进而又需要强大的互联以及规模经济，
making a robust and modern grid a crucial piece of any energy poverty solution.
使得稳定而现代化的电网成为任何能源贫困解决方案不可或缺的一部分。
So, our second mistake is falling for the allure of the quick fix.
我们的第二个错误是，盲目相信快速解决方案。
You see, energy poverty exists within a complex socioeconomic and political context.
能源贫困是存在于一个复杂的社会经济与政治背景下的。
And part of the appeal of new electrification models such as off-grid solar, for example,
诸如离网太阳能之类的新型电气化模型的一部分吸引力在于，
is they can often bypass the glacial pace and inefficiency of government.
它们大多能绕过政府的滞缓节奏与低下效能。
See, with small systems you can skip the bureaucracies and the utilities and sell directly to customers.
要是使用小型系统，你就能跳过官僚机构与程序，直接与顾客进行交易。
But to confront energy poverty, you cannot ignore governments, you cannot ignore institutions,
但是要想攻克能源贫困，你不能忽略政府，你不能忽略制度，
you cannot ignore the many players involved in making, moving and using electricity at scale,
你不能忽略大规模生产、传输和使用电力时涉及到的多方参与者。
which is a way to say that when it comes to providing energy for growth, it's not just about innovating the technology,
换句话说，当我们要为发展供能时，我们不仅仅要考虑科技上的革新，
it's about the slow and hard work of improving governance, institutions and the broader macroenvironment.
还要面对改善治理、制度与更广阔的宏观环境时所要付出的漫长与艰苦的努力。
OK, so this is all good and nice, you say.
你可能会说，这一切听上去都很棒。
But what about climate change? How do we ensure a high-energy future for everyone while also curbing our emissions?
但关于气候变化又该怎么办？我们如何确保在未来，每个人都享有充足能源的同时减少排放？
Well, we'll have to make some complex tradeoffs,
我们必须要做出一些复杂的妥协，
but I believe that a high-energy future for Africa is not mutually exclusive to a low-carbon future.
但我相信，对非洲来说一个能源充足的未来和一个低碳的未来并不矛盾。
And make no mistake: the world cannot expect Africa to remain in energy poverty because of climate change.
毫无疑问：世界不能指望非洲因为气候变化就一直陷于能源贫困之中。
Actually, the facts show that the opposite is true.
实际上，事实表明，情况恰好相反。
Energy will be essential for Africa to adapt to climate change and build resilience.
能源对于非洲适应环境变化、提高抵御能力有至关重要的作用。
You see, rising temperatures will mean increased demand for space cooling and cold storage.
气温升高意味着对于制冷和冷藏的需求增加。
Declining water tables will mean increased pumped irrigation.
地下水减少意味着抽水灌溉增加。
And extreme weather and rising sea levels will require a significant expansion and reinforcement of our infrastructure.
极端的天气与上升的海平面将要求我们大幅扩建以及加固我们的基础设施。
These are all energy-intensive activities.
这些都是高能耗的作业。
So balancing climate change and Africa's pressing need to transition to a high-energy future will be tough.
因此，在气候变化和非洲向能源充足的未来转化的迫切需求之间寻找平衡，将会十分艰巨。
But doing so is nonnegotiable; we will have to find a way.
但是否要这样做也是不容磋商的；我们必须找到办法。
The first step is broadening the terms of the debate away from this either-or framing.
第一步是拓宽辩论的视角，从这种非此即彼的局限中解放出来。
And we also must stop romanticizing solutions that distract us from the core challenges.
另外，一些解决方案会转移我们对核心挑战的注意力，我们也必须停止对这些方案的美化。
And let's not also forget that Africa is endowed with vast natural resources, including significant renewable potential.
我们也不能忘记，非洲拥有得天独厚的丰富自然资源，其中包含了可观的可再生潜能。
For example, in Kenya, where I'm from, geothermal power accounts for half of our electricity generation,
比如说，在我的祖国肯尼亚，有一半的电能来源于地热能，
and with hydro being the other major source, we are already mainly powered by renewable energy.
而水能则是另一个主要电力来源，所以我们的主要电力来源已经是可再生能源了。
We also just brought online Africa's largest wind farm and East Africa's biggest solar facility.
我们也刚刚开始运行非洲最大的风力发电厂，以及东非最大的太阳能发电设施。
In addition, new technology means that we can now run and design our power systems
此外，新的技术也意味着我们现在可以以更高的效率运行和设计我们的能源系统，
and use energy more efficiently than ever, doing more with less.
以及使用我们的能源，达到事半功倍的效果。
Energy efficiency will be an important tool in the fight against climate change.
能源效率将会是我们与气候变化作斗争的重要工具。
So in closing, I'd just like to say that Africa is a real place with real people,
那么在最后，我想说的是，非洲是一个真实的地方，有真实的人民，
navigating complex challenges and major transitions, just like any other region of the world.
她正在应对复杂的挑战和重大的转变，正如世界任何其他地方一样。
And while each country and each region has its social, economic and political quirks,
虽然每个国家、每个地区都有其独有的社会、经济与政治特色，
the physics of electricity are the same everywhere.
电力的物理原理在任何地方都是不变的。
And the energy needs of our economies are just as intensive as those of any other economy.
而我们的经济发展对能源的需求和任何其它经济体一样强烈。
So, the expansion of household electrification through a mix of on- and off-grid solutions has had an incredible impact in Africa.
家庭电气化的普及通过网内外解决方案的组合对非洲起到了难以置信的影响。
But they are nowhere near sufficient for solving energy poverty.
但它们还远远不足以解决能源贫困的难题。
To solve energy poverty, we need generation of electricity from diverse sources at scale and modern grids
要想克服能源贫困，我们需要大规模、多样化的发电来源和现代化的电网，
to power a high-energy future, in which Africans can enjoy modern living standards and well-paying jobs.
为能量充足的未来提供动力，让非洲人享受现代生活水平和高薪工作。
Africans deserve this, and with one of every four people in the world projected to be African by the year 2100,
非洲值得拥有这些，而到了2100年时，世界上每四个人中将有一人来自非洲，
the planet needs it. Thank you.
届时，我们的星球也需要它。谢谢。