I'm thrilled to be talking to you by this high-tech method.
我很激动能通过这种高科技的方法与大家交谈。
Of all humans who have ever lived, the overwhelming majority would have found what we are doing here incomprehensible, unbelievable.
大多数曾生活在世上的人们可能会觉得我们现在正在做的是不可思议且难以置信的。
Because, for thousands of centuries, in the dark time before the scientific revolution and the Enlightenment, people had low expectations.
因为，几千个世纪以来，在科技革命和启蒙运动到来之前的黑暗时期，人们的期望值很低。
For their lives, for their descendants' lives.
不仅对他们自己，对他们后代的生活也是如此。
Typically, they expected nothing significantly new or better to be achieved, ever.
通常，他们从未指望实现任何新的或更好的成就。
This pessimism famously appears in the Bible, in one of the few biblical passages with a named author.
这种悲观主义在《圣经》中很有名，是圣经中为数不多的标注了作者的章节之一。
He's called Qohelet, he's an enigmatic chap.
这位神秘的家伙叫库赫莱特。
He wrote, "What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done; there is nothing new under the sun.
他写道，“过去的一切，便是将来，已行的事，后必再行；日光之下并无新事。
Is there something of which it is said, 'Look, this is new.' No, that thing was already done in the ages that came before us."
有没有什么东西可以称之为‘看！这是新的’吗？没有，那事在我们之前的时代就已经发生了。”
Qohelet was describing a world without novelty.
库赫莱特形容的是一个没有新奇的时代。
By novelty I mean something new in Qohelet's sense, not merely something that's changed,
创新在库赫莱特看来是新事物，不仅仅是改变了的东西，
but a significant change with lasting effects, where people really would say, "Look, this is new," and, preferably, "good."
而是一个有长远影响的重大改变，对此人们会真心感叹，“看啊，这是新的”，且更倾向于认为这是“好”的。
So, purely random changes aren't novelty.
纯粹的随机改变并不新奇。
OK, Heraclitus did say a man can't step in the same river twice, because it's not the same river, he's not the same man.
赫拉克利特曾说，一个人不能两次踏进同一条河,因为那不再是同一条河，他也不是同一个人了。
But if the river is changing randomly, it really is the same river.
但如果河流是随机变化的，它依然是同一条河。
In contrast, if an idea in a mind spreads to other minds, and changes lives for generations, that is novelty.
相反，如果一个人的想法传播到很多人的心中，改变了几代人的生活，那就叫做新鲜感。
Human life without novelty is life without creativity, without progress.
人类的生活若没了新鲜感，就像生活没了创新，不再进步。
It's a static society, a zero-sum game. That was the living hell in which Qohelet lived.
它成为了一成不变的社会，零和的游戏。那就是库赫莱特生活的地狱。
Like everyone, until a few centuries ago. It was hell, because for humans, suffering is intimately related to staticity.
和每个人一样，直到几个世纪前。这就是地狱，因为对于人类，受难和不变的社会是密切相关的。
Because staticity isn't just frustrating. All sources of suffering -- famine, pandemics, incoming asteroids,
固化不止令人沮丧，所以受难的根源--饥荒，流行病，即将到来的小行星，
and things like war and slavery, hurt people only until we have created the knowledge to prevent them.
以及像战争和奴隶制度这样的事，只会伤害他人，直到我们创造了阻止他们的办法。
There's a story in Somerset Maugham's novel "Of Human Bondage" about an ancient sage
毛姆的书《人性的枷锁》中的一个故事，讲述了一位古时的圣人，
who summarizes the entire history of mankind as, "He was born, he suffered and he died."
他将人类的整个历史总结为，“他出生了，他受难了，他死去了。”
And it goes on: "Life was insignificant and death without consequence."
他继续写道，“生无意义，死无后果。”
And indeed, the overwhelming majority of humans who have ever lived had lives of suffering and grueling labor, before dying young and in agony.
没错，绝大多数曾经在这世上生活过的人类都在痛苦和劳动中挣扎，直到在痛苦中英年早逝。
And yes, in most generations nothing had any novel consequence for subsequent generations.
没错，大部分世代的人们，都未为后代带来什么新奇的影响。
Nevertheless, when ancient people tried to explain their condition, they typically did so in grandiose cosmic terms.
可是，当古人试图解释他们的状况时，他们通常用宏大的宇宙作为术语。
Which was the right thing to do, as it turns out.
没想到他们的做法竟是正确的。
Even though their actual explanations, their myths, were largely false.
虽然他们实际的解释，他们的神话大多都是虚构的。
Some tried to explain the grimness and monotony of their world in terms of an endless cosmic war between good and evil,
有些人曾试图用善恶之间无休止的宇宙战争来解释他们世界的冷酷和单调，
in which humans were the battleground.
而人类就是战场。
Which neatly explained why their own experience was full of suffering, and why progress never happened. But it wasn't true.
这也很好的说明了为什么他们的经历充满了煎熬，为什么社会一直没有进步。但这不是真的。
Amazingly enough, all their conflict and suffering were just due to the way they processed ideas.
令人惊奇的是，他们所有的冲突和煎熬都是由于他们处理思想的方式。
Being satisfied with dogma, and just-so stories,
满足于教义和编织的故事，
rather than criticizing them and trying to guess better explanations of the world and of their own condition.
而非去质疑它们，然后试图对世界和他们自己的状况做出更好的解释。
Twentieth-century physics did create better explanations, but still in terms of a cosmic war.
二十世纪的物理学家的确创造了更好的解释，可依然是把宇宙战争作为依据。
This time, the combatants were order and chaos, or entropy.
这一次，对阵双方是秩序和混乱，或无序。
That story does allow for hope for the future.
这个故事的确给予了人们对未来的希望。
But in another way, it's even bleaker than the ancient myths,
但从另一方面来说，它也比古代神话还要凄凉，
because the villain, entropy, is preordained to have the final victory,
因为反派，无序就注定要取得最后的胜利，
when the inexorable laws of thermodynamics shut down all novelty with the so-called heat death of the universe.
当伴随着所谓的宇宙热死亡，热力学不可抗拒的定律阻挡了一切新奇事物的发生时。
Currently, there's a story of a local battle in that war, between sustainability, which is order, and wastefulness, which is chaos
目前，在那场战争中有一个在可持续性，也就是秩序，与浪费，也就是混乱之间的当地斗争的故事，
that's the contemporary take on good and evil, often with the added twist that humans are the evil, so we shouldn't even try to win.
这是当代人们对善与恶的理解，通常伴随着人类是邪恶的念头，所以我们根本不应该尝试去战胜。
And recently, there have been tales of another cosmic war, between gravity,
而最近，又出现了另一个宇宙战争的传说，使宇宙瓦解的重力，
which collapses the universe, and dark energy, which finally shreds it.
与最终能把其撕裂的暗能量之间的抗衡。
So this time, whichever of those cosmic forces wins, we lose.
所以，这次，无论哪一个宇宙势力胜出我们都会输。
All those pessimistic accounts of the human condition contain some truth,
所有那些对人类状况的悲观描述都带着一丝真谛，
but as prophecies, they're all misleading, and all for the same reason.
但就像预言，它们都是因为同一个原因在误导人们。
None of them portrays humans as what we really are.
没有任何一条真正展现了人类的本质。
As Jacob Bronowski said, "Man is not a figure in the landscape -- he is the shaper of the landscape."
就像布鲁诺维奇所说，“人类不是风景的一部分--而是它的创造者。”
In other words, humans are not playthings of cosmic forces, we are users of cosmic forces.
换而言之，人类不是宇宙势力的奴隶，而是它的使用者。
I'll say more about that in a moment, but first, what sorts of thing create novelty?
稍后我会深入讨论，但首先，什么样的东西创造了新事物？
Well, the beginning of the universe surely did.
当然，宇宙的诞生功不可没。
The big bang, nearly 14 billion years ago, created space, time and energy, everything physical.
大约140亿年前的大爆炸创造了时空、时间和能量，所有的物体。

And then, immediately, what I call the first era of novelty,
紧接着，在我称之为第一个新世纪的时期，
with the first atom, the first star, the first black hole, the first galaxy.
诞生了第一颗原子，第一颗行星，第一个黑洞，第一片星系。
But then, at some point, novelty vanished from the universe.
可是，在某个瞬间，宇宙中的创新之力消失了。
Perhaps from as early as 12 or 13 billion years ago,
也许是早在120或130亿年以前，
right up to the present day, there's never been any new kind of astronomical object.
直到今天，一直没有什么新的天体诞生。
There's only been what I call the great monotony.
我称之为“大单调”。
So, Qohelet was accidentally even more right about the universe beyond the Sun than he was about under the Sun.
所以，库赫莱特对太阳之外的宇宙的认识，碰巧比他对太阳之下的认识更正确。
So long as the great monotony lasts, what has been out there really is what will be.
只要大单调还存在，那些存在的，将会一直在。
And there is nothing out there of which it can truly be said, "Look, this is new."
也不会有别的新事物可以被真正形容为“看啊，这是新的”。
Nevertheless, at some point during the great monotony,
然而，在大单调的某一刻，
there was an event -- inconsequential at the time, and even billions of years later, it had affected nothing beyond its home planet
有一个事件--当时没有什么意义，而且甚至几十亿年之后，除了它的母星之外，它什么也没有影响，
yet eventually, it could cause cosmically momentous novelty.
可是最终，它可能会引起大规模的创新。
That event was the origin of life: creating the first genetic knowledge, coding for biological adaptations, coding for novelty.
那事件就是生命的起源：创造了第一个基因上的知识，让生物开始学会适应，学会创新。
On Earth, it utterly transformed the surface.
在地球上，它彻底地改变了地球面貌。
Genes in the DNA of single-celled organisms put oxygen in the air, extracted CO2, put chalk and iron ore into the ground,
在单细胞生物DNA中的基因将氧气释放到空中，吸取二氧化碳，将垩和铁矿融到地里，
hardly a cubic inch of the surface to some depth has remained unaffected by those genes.
几乎每一寸土地在某种程度上都被那些基因影响了。
The Earth became, if not a novel place on the cosmic scale, certainly a weird one.
就算地球没在宇宙层面上变成了一个新颖的地方，也至少是令人诧异的一个。
Just as an example, beyond Earth, only a few hundred different chemical substances have been detected.
比如，在地球之外，只有几百种不同的化学物质被发现。
Presumably, there are some more in lifeless locations, but on Earth, evolution created billions of different chemicals.
据猜测，大概在没有生命的地方还有更多，但在地球上，进化过程就造就了几亿种化学物质。
And then the first plants, animals, and then, in some ancestor species of ours, explanatory knowledge.
随之出现了第一棵植物，第一只动物，然后，在我们的一些祖先物种中，出现了解释性知识的概念。
For the first time in the universe, for all we know.
据我们所知，这是宇宙中的首次。
Explanatory knowledge is the defining adaptation of our species.
解释性知识可以用来定义我们物种的适应性。
It differs from the nonexplanatory knowledge in DNA, for instance, by being universal.
它不同于DNA中无法解释的知识，例如，它是普遍存在的。
That is to say, whatever can be understood, can be understood through explanatory knowledge.
也就是说，任何可以理解的东西，都可以通过解释性知识理解。
And more, any physical process can be controlled by such knowledge, limited only by the laws of physics.
此外，任何物理的过程，都可以由这些知识控制，只受物理法则的限制。
And so, explanatory knowledge, too, has begun to transform the Earth's surface.
所以说，解释性知识同样也开始改变了地球的面貌。
And soon, the Earth will become the only known object in the universe that turns aside incoming asteroids instead of attracting them.
不久之后，地球成为了宇宙中我们唯一所知能把小行星拒之门外，而非吸引它们碰撞的星球。
Qohelet was understandably misled by the painful slowness of progress in his day.
可以理解，库赫莱特被他所在时代艰难而迟缓的发展所误导了。
Novelty in human life was still too rare, too gradual, to be noticed in one generation.
人类生活中的新奇事物仍然太罕见，发展太缓慢，不可能在一代人的时间里被发掘。
And in the biosphere, the evolution of novel species was even slower. But both things were happening.
而在生物圈，新物种的进化需要更长时间，但两件事情同时都发生了。
Now, why is there a great monotony in the universe at large, and what makes our planet buck that trend?
为什么宇宙中会有如此大规模的单调？是什么让我们的星球顺从那个趋势？
Well, the universe at large is relatively simple.
宇宙之大，其实很简单。
Stars are so simple that we can predict their behavior billions of years into the future,
行星也很简单，我们可以推测未来数亿年以后的样子，
and retrodict how they formed billions of years ago. So why is the universe simple?
也可以预测它们亿年前如何形成。所以为什么宇宙如此简单呢？
Basically, it's because big, massive, powerful things strongly affect lesser things, and not vice versa.
基本上，这是因为巨大的、强有力的事物强烈地影响着较小的事物，反之则不然。
I call that the hierarchy rule.
我称之为“等级制度”。
For example, when a comet hits the Sun, the Sun carries on just as before, but the comet is vaporized.
比如，一个彗星撞上了太阳，太阳仍然会正常运转，而那颗彗星却会蒸发殆尽。
For the same reason, big things are not much affected by small parts of themselves, i.e., by details.
同理，大的物体不会那么容易受到小物体的影响，不容易受到细节影响。
Which means that their overall behavior is simple.
也就是说，它的整体行为很简单。
And since nothing very new can happen to things that remain simple,
既然没有什么新鲜事会发生，它会一直很简单，
the hierarchy rule, by causing large-scale simplicity, has caused the great monotony.
等级制度导致了大规模的简单化，也导致了大单调。
But, the saving grace is the hierarchy rule is not a law of nature.
但是，令人耳目一新的是，等级制度并不是大自然的规律。
It just happens to have held so far in the universe, except here.
是巧合让它延续至今，除了这里。
In our biosphere, molecule-sized objects, genes, control vastly disproportionate resources.
在我们的生物圈，分子大小的物质，也就是基因，控制着大量不平行的资源。
The first genes for photosynthesis, by causing their own proliferation, and then transforming the surface of the planet,
最早出现的掌管光合作用的基因通过引起自身的增殖，然后改变地球表面，
have violated or reversed the hierarchy rule by the mind-blowing factor of 10 to the power 40.
以令人吃惊的10的40次方的规模，已经违背或扭转了等级制度。
Explanatory knowledge is potentially far more powerful because of universality, and more rapidly created.
解释性知识由于其广泛性和更迅速的创造过程而具有更大的潜力，创造得更快。
When human knowledge has achieved a factor 10 to the 40, it will pretty much control the entire galaxy, and will be looking beyond.
当人的智慧增加到10的40次方，基本就有能力掌握整个星系，而且会进一步探索。
So humans, and any other explanation creators who may exist out there, are the ultimate agents of novelty for the universe.
所以，人类和其他可能存在的解释性创造者是宇宙创新的最终代理人。
We are the reason and the means by which novelty and creativity, knowledge, progress, can have objective, large-scale physical effects.
我们是新事物产生的原因和方法，因为我们，新事物，创造力，知识，发展得以对现实有客观、大规模的影响。
From the human perspective, the only alternative to that living hell of static societies
从人类的角度来说，去改变永恒不变的地狱社会的唯一方法
is continual creation of new ideas, behaviors, new kinds of objects.
便是不断地创造新的思想，新的行为，新的事物。
This robot will soon be obsolete, because of new explanatory knowledge, progress.
这个机器人很快就会过时，因为新的解释性知识和我们的发展。
But from the cosmic perspective, explanatory knowledge is the nemesis of the hierarchy rule.
从宇宙的角度来说，解释性知识是等级制度建设的克星。
It's the destroyer of the great monotony. So it's the creator of the next cosmological era, the Anthropocene.
它是大单调的终结者。因而它将是下一个宇宙时代的创造者，人类世。
If one can speak of a cosmic war, it's not the one portrayed in those pessimistic stories.
如果有人可以为宇宙大战说话的话，它不会是那些悲观主义故事中描绘的救世主。
It's a war between monotony and novelty, between stasis and creativity. And in this war, our side is not destined to lose.
它是一场单调对抗创新的战争，一场停滞不前对抗创新改变的战争。在这场战争中，我们注定不会是失败者。
If we choose to apply our unique capacity to create explanatory knowledge, we could win. Thanks.
如果我们能选择运用我们独特的能力来创造解释性知识，我们就可以获得胜利。谢谢。