(单词翻译:单击)
If you've ever gotten deep into a task and told yourself that you've come this far, so you may as well finish it,
如果你曾经深入到一项任务中，告诉自己已经走到这一步，你也可以完成它，
you've fallen prey to the sunk cost effect, more popularly known as the sunk cost fallacy.
那么你就成为了沉没成本效应的牺牲品，它更通俗的名字是沉没成本谬论。
This is when you continue with some sort of effort once you've already invested time, money, or some other resource in it
当你已经在其中投入了时间、金钱或其他资源之后，你会继续努力，
— even if you don't really want to go through with it.
即使你真的不想去经历。
You've likely experienced this for yourself in everyday life.
你可能在日常生活中亲身经历过。
Like, you might have been more reluctant to resign from your miserable job since you'd been in it a few months.
比如说，你可能更不愿意辞去你那可怜的工作，因为你已经在那里工作了几个月。
Or maybe you've gone to a concert you didn't really want to since you'd already paid for the tickets.
或者你可能去看了一场不想去的音乐会，因为你已经买了票。
Maybe you've even stayed in a rocky relationship since you've known the other person for years.
你可能还维系着一段很不稳定的关系，只是因为认识另一个人很多年了。
But while a lot of us have used sunk costs to justify our choices… it shouldn't make sense.
但是，虽然我们中的很多人都用沉没成本来证明自己的选择是正确的，但它并不合理。
So, why do we do it?
那我们为什么还要这么做？
Some of the research in this field comes from behavioral economists.
这一领域的一些研究来自行为经济学家。
They view people as rational decision-makers who make choices based on the best use of finite resources like limited time or money.
他们认为人们是理性的决策者，可以根据有限的时间或金钱等有限资源的最佳利用效果，做出选择。
And they argue that a sunk cost is irrational.
他们认为沉没成本不合理。
It shouldn't even be one of the factors that influence your decision.
它甚至不应该是影响你做决定的一个因素。
That's because you've already expended time, effort, or money in it and it's no longer an available resource to choose from.
这是因为你已经在其中花费了时间、精力或金钱，它也不再是一种可供选择的资源。
Yet people aren't robots — we're not always flawlessly rational actors.
然而，人不是机器人，我们并不总是完美理性的演员。
This is a thing we do all the time.
这是我们一直在做的事情。
And the more we've invested in a sunk cost, the more likely we are to commit to it.
我们对沉没成本的投入越多，我们就越可能坚持下去。
A 1990 study in The Journal of Applied Psychology examined this idea using 407 undergraduate business students.
1990年《应用心理学期刊》上的一项研究，用407名商学院本科生检验了这一观点。
Researchers asked if the students would decide to continue a project when they found out they had been outdone by their competitor, given that some amount of money had already been spent on it.
研究人员询问，如果学生们发现他们的竞争对手已经超过了他们，他们是否会决定继续一个项目，因为他们已经在这个项目上花了一些款项。
The study found that the more money had already been spent on the project, the more likely people would continue to spend money on it.
研究发现，在这个项目上花费的钱越多，人们越有可能继续为其投钱。
This tendency to keep committing to a less desirable situation is known as escalation of commitment, and often goes hand-in-hand with sunk cost effects.
这种持续致力于一个不理想情况的趋势被称为承诺升级，它经常与沉没成本效应同时发生。
So why exactly do we go all in on lost causes?
那我们为什么要全力以赴地追查失败的原因呢？
It turns out there's not really one explanation for why.
事实证明，目前还无法对此进行解释。
One major theory is based on self-justification.
一个主要的理论是基于自我辩护。
It's the idea that you commit to a sunk cost because you don't want to admit that you made a bad investment — either to others or to yourself.
这是因为你不想承认自己做了一笔不好的投资，不管是对别人还是对自己投资，所以你就坚持沉没成本的观点。
A group from Ohio University published a study in 1985 on the psychology of sunk cost.
俄亥俄州立大学的一个小组，在1985年发表了一项关于沉没成本心理学的研究。
In one of the experiments in this study, 81 college students from Ohio and Oregon were presented with a scenario in which they owned a printing business.
在本研究的一个实验中，研究人员向来自俄亥俄州和俄勒冈州的81名大学生展示了一个情境，即他们拥有一家印刷企业。
Their competitor had just gone broke and offered to sell them their super-fast printing press for super cheap.
其竞争对手刚刚破产，他们愿意以低廉的价格把印刷速度超快的印刷机卖给这些大学生。
But in the scenario, participants had just bought a new, slower, more expensive press.
但在这种情况下，参加实验的大学生刚刚购买了一种全新、速度较慢、价格更贵的印刷机。
People who said no to the cheap, fast new press gave reasons like.
那些对廉价、快速的新印刷机说不的参与者，给出了如下理由。
"I already have a good, new press for a lot of money," which suggested they didn't want to look like they'd wasted resources.
“我已经花了很多钱买一台很好的新印刷机，”这表明他们不想让自己看起来好像浪费了资源。
Other studies have postulated that the sunk cost effect can be explained by loss aversion.
其他研究假设，沉没成本效应可以用损失规避来解释。
That's the idea that losses are much more psychologically impactful than gains of the same size.
其观点是，损失比同样规模的收益在心理上更有影响。
For example, you'd probably prefer the idea of not losing $100 to winning $100.
例如，你可能更喜欢不输掉100美元的想法，而不是赢100美元。
So people would rather allocate more time and money to a sunk cost because they just may turn the situation around,
因此，人们宁愿把更多的时间和金钱分配给沉没成本，因为他们可能会扭转局面，
rather than stop trying because they know that the loss is inevitable.
而不会因为知道损失是不可避免的而停止努力。
Plenty of other theories have been put forth over the years.
多年来，人们提出了许多其他的理论。
For example, one 2007 study suggested that people pursue sunk costs because they don't want to regret giving up.
例如，2007年的一项研究表明，人们追求沉没成本是因为他们不想为放弃而后悔。
And some researchers have argued that no one theory fits everything.
一些研究人员认为，没有一个理论适用于所有的情况。
One study published in 1992 found plenty of support for the self-justification idea,
1992年发表的一项研究发现，自我证明的观点得到了充分的支持，
but also suggested that other theories might better explain sunk-cost behavior in specific cases.
但也表明其他理论可能更好地解释特定情况下的沉没成本行为。
Furthermore, a number of factors can potentially influence whether you still go in on a sunk cost.
此外，一些因素可能会影响你是否仍然对沉没成本进行投注。
They could include how personally responsible you feel for your original decision to invest,
这些因素可能包括你对最初的投资决定负有多少个人责任，
whether your sunk-cost behavior is being observed by an audience, and even whether you're making a decision as an individual or a group.
你的沉没成本行为是否被人观察到，甚至你是作为个人还是团体做出决定。
One study published in Psychological Science in 2018 has even suggested that you don't have to incur the sunk cost yourself to feel the pressure.
2018年发表在《心理科学》上的一项研究甚至表明，你不必为了感受压力而付出沉没成本的代价。
In one experiment, participants were more likely to say that a fictional character named Agatha should keep playing the cello
在一项实验中，参与者更可能会说，一个名叫阿加莎的虚构人物应该继续演奏大提琴，
if her husband had paid a lot for her initial lessons, rather than if he had paid little.
如果她的丈夫为她最初的课程付了很多费用，但如果付的费用并不多就不用继续了。
No matter what the explanation, though, sunk costs are still sunk costs.
不管怎么解释，沉没成本仍然是沉没成本。
So how do we avoid them?
那么我们如何避免它们呢？
One researcher, a clinical professor of psychology at Weill-Cornell Medical School,
一位威尔康奈尔医学院的临床心理学教授兼研究员建议，
has suggested that you should take a step back, let go of any judgments, and think about your situation.
你可以退后一步，放弃任何判断，考虑一下你的处境。
For example, are you missing out on other opportunities because you're committed to this one thing?
例如，你是否因为继续做这件事而错过了其他机会？
If you saw someone else doing the same thing, what would you tell them to do?
如果你看到别人做同样的事情，你会告诉他们怎么做？
The thing is, even if you've put so much time and effort in, it just may be worth it to let it go in the end.
问题是，即使你投入了如此多时间和精力，最终还是值得放手的。
After all, that's another way of finishing it.
毕竟，这是完成任务的另一种方式。
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感谢收看这一集的心理科学秀，感谢超棒的赞助人支持我们。
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