Where in the world is it easiest to get ... rich?
在世界上哪个地方做富人最容易呢？
That's the question I asked my professor when I studied sociology in the early 90s
这是我在90年代初向我研究社会学的教授提出的问题，
because he was having a lecture about social democracies, the Scandinavian welfare state,
当时他正在做一场关于斯堪的纳维亚等福利国家的社会主义的演讲，
and he was a classical left-wing sociology professor,
他是个传统的左翼社会学教授，
and he could not hide his enthusiasm when he talked about these egalitarian societies with no rich people and no poor people.
当谈到在平均主义社会里没有穷人也没有富人时，他的满腔激情无法掩饰。
But I, on the other hand, I was writing my master's thesis about rich people.
而我当时正在写一篇关于富人的硕士论文。
When I interviewed my informants from the upper classes, they all said the same thing: "Life in Scandinavia is tough."
在接受采访时，我那些来自上流社会的受访者们纷纷表示：“斯堪的那维亚的生活实在太艰难了。”
"We have to work twice as hard to earn money because we have to struggle against:
“我们必须要付出双倍的努力去赚钱，因为我们必须要对抗：
high taxes, strong unions controlling the wages and a generous welfare state that makes people lazy."
高税额，强势的工会对工资的管制很严格，以及慷慨的社会福利制度让人们都变得懒惰。”
As one rich guy told me, he said, "They call it a social security net. Well, I call it a hammock."
一位富人说到：“他们管福利制度叫社会安全网。我却觉得它更像吊床。”
And as every aspiring social scientist, I started to go native;
于是就像每一个有志向的社会科学家一样，我开始站在当地人的角度思考问题，
I started to feel sympathy for these rich people.
我开始同情那些富人。
And that's why I raised my hand and asked my professor,
于是我举起手问教授，
"Well, what if you don't care so much about equality? What if your dream is to become rich?
“如果我本来就不在乎公平与否呢？如果我的梦想就是变得富有呢？
Where in the world should I have been born to become really rich?"
我要生在世界上的哪个地方才能真正的富有？”
I still remember the puzzled look on my professor's face. But he answered the best he could.
我还记得教授当时脸上那困惑的表情。但他还是努力回答了我。
Something like, "Well, if that's your goal in life,
他说：“如果富有是你的人生目标，
you should probably have been born in a society with free markets, low taxes, and minimal government intervention.
也许你应该出生在一个有免费市场，税赋低，政府干预少的社会。
And he added, "If you want to become rich, you should probably not study sociology."
他还说，如果你想变得富有，也许你不应该学习社会学。”
That was a good answer and the best guess we had back then.
那是我到那时候为止听到的最好的回答。
That is until I saw that the University of Oslo professor in Economy, Karl Moene,
直到我认识了奥斯陆大学的经济学教授，卡尔·摩恩，
actually had checked the facts: "Where in the world is it easiest to get rich?"
他真的去调查了：“在世界上哪个地方做富人最容易？”
And before I share with you where you should go to earn money, we have to define "rich."
在我告诉大家你们应该去哪里赚钱之前，我们首先应该给富有下个定义。
The UN talks about the poverty line. You know, if you earn less than one dollar a day, maybe two dollars a day.
联合国提出过贫困线一说。适用于那些每天收入少于一美元或者两美元的人。
But we have to define the richness line. It's a more fun line, actually.
我们也要设定一个富有线。实际上这个线很有意思。
And the most reliable report, when it comes to rich people, the Wealth Report,
最具有参考价值的报告，《财富报道》，在形容富人时，
they set the richness line at individuals with net worth more than 30 million USD.
指的是净身家高于3000万美元的个人。
In the consultant jargon, these people are called UHNWI's.
行话里，这些人被称作是UHNWI。
That is Ultra High Net Worth Individuals.
也就是超高资产净值人士。
That guy, by the way, is not rich. He is just a model.
顺便说下这个人并不富有。他只是个模特。
Actually, on the lower part of the model.
并且还是收入比较低的那种模特。
And I have saved some money by keeping the watermark there as well. Smart.
我还保留了水印，这样还省了点钱。我聪明吧。
So, according to The Wealth Report, there are more than 170, 000 UHNWI's in the world.
《财富报道》显示，世界上有超过17万极高身家人士。
And here is the top five list of countries with the richest people.
这个是世界上富人最多的五个国家的排行榜。
Number five: China, with more than 8,000.
第五名是中国，超过8000人。
UK, Germany, Japan, and on top, of course, the United States with more than 40,000 rich people.
然后是英国，德国，日本，当然第一名是美国，有超过40000名富人。
But of course, we are not interested in the absolute numbers here.
但我们感兴趣的当然不是这些数字。
We are interested in rich people per capita, per million inhabitants.
我们感兴趣的是平均数，每一百万人中的富人数。
And if we leave out the pure tax havens, like Cyprus, and Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore, Monaco
如果撇开像塞浦路斯、瑞士、香港、新加坡、摩洛哥这些避税天堂，
where we have an artificially huge share of rich people
这些地方富人很多，
it turns out that we have on number 5 Denmark -- with 179 rich people per one million inhabitants
排名第五的是丹麦，每一百万居民中有179个富人，
Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and on top: Norway.
然后是加拿大，新西兰，瑞典，第一名是挪威。
But where's the US? On place 13. So what happened to my old professor's, you know, social democracies?
美国呢？美国排第13。那么我教授的民主社会呢？
There are no rich people there. But OK.
那里没有富人。没关系。
30 million dollars, that's just pocket money in a country like the US, where people can get insanely rich.
3000万美元，对美国这样的国家来说只是小意思，那儿的人多有钱你都想象不到。
Look at the watermark again?
看到水印了吗？
So, let's raise the richness line up from 30 million dollars up to ... 1 billion dollars.
我们再把富人标准线从3000万美元提高到...10亿美元。
And the most reliable source here is the Forbes billionaires list.
那么最有参考价值的就是《福布斯》富豪榜。
And according to the Forbes, if you look at billionaires per million inhabitants.
《福布斯》的报告显示，如果要看一百万居民中亿万富翁的数量。
Number 5, Germany: 1.2 billionaires. 1.2 billionaires per million inhabitants.
排名第五的是德国，1.2个。每一百万人中有1.2个亿万富翁。
The United States 1.7, Norway 2, Sweden, and on top Iceland with 3.1.
其次是美国1.7个。挪威2个，瑞典，最多的是冰岛，3.1个。
With a single billionaire: Thor Bjorgólfsson.
这位亿万富翁是托尔·比约哥夫森。
He could have been a model.
他本来可以做模特的。
But the point is, the United States: 1.7 Scandinavia taken as a whole: 2.1.
但重点在于，美国有1.7个亿万富翁，斯堪的纳维亚有2.1个。
And the big mystery is ... How can this be?
那么最大的问题在于...怎么会这样？
How can Bernie Sanders' dream societies, these socialist paradises be such a breeding place for rich people? That's a mystery.
伯尼·桑德斯的梦想中的社会，社会主义者的天堂，怎么会变成富人的孵化场？这是一个未解之谜。
There are two reasons. Reason number one is free education.
两个原因。第一，免费教育。
Social democracies give free higher education to everybody, and cheap student loans, and grants.
民主社会给每个人提供免费高等教育，学生贷款也更便宜。
That enables more people to use their talents and earn money.
这就让更多人可以发挥自己的才能并赚到钱。
We can see this in the social mobility numbers.
我们可以从社会流动率中看到这一点。
Imagine all fathers in a society, and we divide them into five groups based on income: from the bottom fifth up to the top fifth.
假设我们按收入将所有的父亲分成5个阶层，从收入最低到收入最高。
Then we look at their sons, and divide their income into five steps,
然后我们再看他们的儿子，按收入将他们分成5个阶层，
and we see how many sons of the fathers from the bottom income end up on top.
来看看处于底层的父亲的儿子有多少最终可以到达上层。
How many sons go from rags to riches?
有多少儿子从一无所有到腰缠万贯？

If it was perfect social mobility, if talents and opportunities were equally distributed,
在理想状态中，如果机会和人才可以平均地分配，
20% from the bottom would end up on each of these five ladders.
最终会有20%的人会从底层到达顶层。
So let's look at the numbers for the different countries.
我们再来看不同国家的这个数字。
In Denmark, they are pretty close to perfect social mobility with 14% that goes from rags to riches.
丹麦，从一无所有到腰缠万贯的数量是14%，接近理想数据。
In Norway 12, Sweden 11, the United States 8.
挪威12%，瑞典11%，美国8%。
Because of free education, there are more self-made men in Scandinavia than in the US.
因为义务教育，斯堪的纳维亚白手起家的人比美国的要多。
And if we look at those sons who don't end up on top but stay at the bottom, that go from rags to rags.
再看那些没能进入上流社会一直在社会底层生活的人。
Again, 20% would be perfect mobility.
20%的流动率是完美的。
In Denmark, 25% ends up at the bottom, Sweden a bit more. Norway.
在丹麦，有25%的人停留在社会底层，瑞典略多一点。然后是挪威。
And look at the United States. This is because education in the United States is very expensive.
再看美国。这是因为美国的教育非常昂贵。
But the second and most important explanation for Scandinavia being such a breeding place for rich people is this:
但是让斯堪的纳维亚成为富人的完美孵化地的第二个同时也是最重要的原因是，
Have you ever noticed if you have been to the United States, when you drive around and drive through a toll plaza,
如果你们去过美国，你们会注意到，当你开车经过收费站的时候，
there are actually people sitting there taking your money.
真的会有人坐在那儿收钱。
Compare that to my local toll plaza. Just a sign with some gizmo attached to it.
再看看我们当地的收费站。只有一个路标。
And when you go to a supermarket in the United States,
如果你走进美国的超市，
there are actually people there helping to pack your things into your bags.
会有人帮你把东西装进袋子。
It's very friendly and convenient compared to my local grocery store. Like this. There's nobody there.
跟我们当地的百货商店比起来真的很友好，也很方便。就像这样。根本没人。
The biggest shock I had when I went to the US for the first time,
我第一次去美国时，最令我震惊的是，
when I went to the restroom, there were actually people working there.
当我进入厕所的时候，都有人在工作。
Compare that to my local public toilet.
再看我们当地的公厕。
There's not even a cleaner there; it cleans itself automatically.
连保洁人员都没有，厕所是自动清洁的。
And the reason for this difference is that Scandinavian unions are pressing up the minimum wages.
导致这种差别的原因就是斯堪的纳维亚的工会在抬高最低工资。
It's so expensive to have these people working there.
安排人在这些地方上班需要花很多钱。
In Norway, tollbooth operators, supermarket packers,
在挪威，收费站的工作人员，超市打包人员，
and a restroom janitor would earn almost three times as much as in the US.
还有厕所保洁人员的工资，是从事这些工作的美国人的三倍。
And that's why we have replaced these people with machines.
所以我们才用机器人替代了人工。
That is why I was surprised when I saw this article in The New York Times in 2014.
所以我2014年在《纽约时报》上看见这篇文章的时候非常惊讶。
Preparing for Chip-and-PIN Cards in the United States.
文章说，美国已准备进入芯片密码卡时代。
Because in the United States people are still using paper checks as a method of payment,
因为美国人还在用纸质支票作为一种支付方式，
while Scandinavian banks have made us start using Chip-and-PIN cards long ago.
这已经在斯堪的纳维亚的银行已经让那里的人们改用芯片卡很久之后了。
Because the minimum wages here are so high.
这是因为斯堪的纳维亚的最低工资标准太高了。
So Scandinavian banks can't afford having people manually control the checks.
当地的银行无法负担起由人力来检查支票。
So Scandinavian companies, because of the unions pressing up the wages,
由于工会对最低工资的管控，斯堪的纳维亚的公司
they have to downsize and introduce new technology or else ... they will go broke.
都在缩小规模并引进新技术，否则他们就会面临破产危机。
And new technology increases the productivity in a society, which in the long run also increases profit.
而新技术又提高了生产效率，长期下来也增加了利润。
And on the upper end of the wage ladder,
在工资阶层的顶端，
in the name of solidarity, Scandinavian unions hold back the highest salaries of the skilled workers.
斯堪的纳维亚联盟又一起压制高级技术工人的工资。
So for example, a Norwegian senior engineer -- it's my uncle, by the way.
比如，一位挪威的高级工程师--顺便说下这位是我叔叔。
That's why there's no watermark there. Actually, he would look cooler with a watermark, better.
所以才没有水印。实际上有水印会酷一点。
He earns, on average per year, 76,000 dollars, while his American colleague earns more than 100,000 dollars.
他平均一年的薪水是76000美金，而他的美国同事一年能赚100000美金。
So American engineers ... They are not only more good-looking, but they are more expensive.
所以美国的工程师...他们不仅打扮的更精致，他们的身价也更昂贵。
Of course, this wage restraint on high-skilled work is good for profit.
当然，对高级技术人员工资的限制可以带来更多利润。
So, the unions are in effect subsidizing the capitalists.
这样联盟就有更多钱来资助各种资本家。
I wish I knew all this when I gave up a career in social science
我真希望我在选择以社会科学为职业时就知道这一点，
because the beauty and the irony of these findings, I think, is amazing.
因为这些发现让我觉得奇妙又讽刺，这感觉很新颖。
On the one hand, you have my rich informants that complain about how hard it is to get rich in Scandinavia.
一方面，那些有钱的受访者们抱怨着在斯堪的纳维亚做富人有多难。
They had it all wrong. Not only is it easier to get rich in a social democracy,
他们全都错了。在民主社会做富人不仅更简单，
but they are critical to the very institutions that have helped them get rich.
他们对那些让他们暴富的机构还至关重要。
High taxes, which gives free education and more talent into the economy.
高额的赋税可以保证免费的教育，更多的人才就可以投入经济建设。
Strong unions that are helping to increase productivity,
强大的公会可以帮助提高生产效率，
and a generous welfare state that makes the unions accept downsizing
慷慨的福利制度可以让工会同意缩小企业规模，
because they know that their members will be well taken care of.
因为他们知道，工会成员失业后还是可以得到善待。
So the unions cooperate because of the safety net.
工会愿意合作就是因为安全网的存在。
So rich people are a bit like Immanuel Kant's famous bird,
所以富人就像是伊曼努尔·康德笔下那只鸟，
who thinks she could fly even faster in airless space, forgetting that it's the air itself that gives her lift.
她以为自己在真空中可以飞的更快，却忘了是因为有空气的存在她才能飞起来。
On the other part of the political spectrum, when Bernie Sanders is praising Scandinavian societies,
在政治派系的另一边，伯尼·桑德斯大肆褒奖斯堪的纳维亚的社会主义，
he forgets that these are not anti-rich or anti-capitalist systems.
却忘了他们的体制并不是反对富有或反对资本的。
Because the welfare state and the unions work in tandem with capitalist dynamics.
因为福利机构和工会与资本时合作共赢的。
And I think that is the most important lesson here.
我认为这是最重要的教训。
The economy is not a zero-sum game. We are in this together.
经济学不是零和博弈。我们都参与其中。
And that is why Scandinavia is a better place to fulfill the American dream ... than America itself. Thank you so much.
所以这就是为什么斯堪的纳维亚相比美国更适合实现美国梦。谢谢大家。