The future is very hard to see—where the world is going.

未来难以预测——这个世界会走向何方

And most ideas die. And even really good ideas don’t last.

人们的多数想法都会消亡 即便是非常优秀的想法也难以为继

So just as an example, if you look at the Blackberry phone market share

举个例子 看一下黑莓手机的市场占有率

you’ll see that they were doing really well for a while and then they just tanked out. Why?

你会发现他们有段时间遥遥领先 但后来直接就被击败了 为什么？

Because they had a good idea, which was the physical keyboard on the phone, but that didn’t last.

因为他们想出了个很好的点子 就是给手机装上实体键盘 但好景不长

They held onto a good idea a little bit too long.

他们紧抓着这一个好主意 太久没有变通

And this is something that creative companies need to be aware of all the time, is this constant updating.

这是创造型公司一直需要留意的一点 那就是要持续更新

In other words they’ve got some great thing that’s working but it’s not going to last and they need to keep updated.

换句话说 他们想到了很奏效的好主意 但它不会持续太久 他们需要一直更新

And this is why companies put out their “new and improved” models all the time.

这就是公司不断推出“新款改进”模型的原因

We’re now on the iPhone 10 and it’s going to keep going

我们现在在研发苹果10 这种趋势还将继续

because you can’t put out something great and then say, “all right, I think we’re done.”

因为你不可能推出很棒的东西 直接说“好 我们做到了”

So the challenge for companies is that it’s hard to know what’s going to stick.

所以公司所面临的挑战就是 他们不知道什么东西会保留下来

And this is because if you do something that’s too close to what you’ve done before, your audience will be bored.

如果你现在所做的事跟以前做过的太过相似 你的用户就会感到厌倦

If you do something that’s too wacky, then no one’s going to follow you there.

如果你做的事太过剑走偏锋 又不会得到别人的欣赏

And so companies need to figure out how to feel out the border of the possible.

所以公司要弄明白如何摸清“可能”的界限

And this is something that good companies work on all the time.

这就是优秀的公司一直努力在做的事

The solution is to proliferate options.

解决办法就是增加选项

The solution is to put out lots of options,

解决办法就是要提供很多很多选择

and those options should actually be at different distances from community standards.

这些选择应该与人们所接受的标准有不同程度的差异

Just as an example, fashion designers do this all the time.

比如说 时装设计师就经常这么干

They have their next model of clothing and it’s great, it’s pretty similar to what came before.

他们设计出下一款服装模型 效果很好 跟以前的款式比较相似

And they do wackier and wackier stuff all the way out to haute couture,

然后他们会做出越来越奇怪的高级女士时装

where it’s not actually intended that anyone is going to wear this wacky outfit

不管是否有人真的会穿上这些怪异的衣服

but it’s a way of “feeling out” the border of the possible.

但这是一种“试探”可能界限的方法

In the same way car designers do this.

汽车设计师也会做同样的事

So Mercedes Benz is constantly upgrading and updating its sedans.

梅赛德斯·奔驰在不断更新和升级它的轿车

But they also like all car companies make these concept cars that are completely wacky.

不过他们也希望所有汽车公司都生产这种特别奇葩的概念车

So Mercedes recently put out this thing called the “biome concept car”

梅赛德斯最近推出了一款“biome概念车”

which is the idea of a car that is grown from seeds and the fuel runs through the car body,

是指从车身里流动的种子和燃料里长出来的汽车

and the tires and everything is powered by the electric, by the solar panel sunroof at the top,

轮胎和所有东西用的都是电力 源自车顶上的太阳能电池板

and the whole thing is biodegradable.

整个汽车都是生物可降解的

Now Mercedes has no plans to actually build the biome concept car.

梅赛德斯并不打算生产这款biome概念车

It only lives on the computer.

它只存在于电脑中

But this is a way of taking a throw into the far distance to figure out what’s on the distant horizon,

但这种方式可以让人们探究遥远的未来 了解未来会发生什么

to figure out if you can move in that direction or not.

让人们知道是否能朝着那个方向前进

And all good companies have ways of doing that.

所有优秀的公司都会这么做

Fisher Price is constantly updating its strollers and toys or whatever.

费雪玩具也一直在更新它的折叠式婴儿车和玩具等

But it has also this future of parenting line where they think about the impact of technology on childrearing of the future

但他们也会思考未来的亲子关系 会考虑未来技术对育儿产生的影响

with very wacky things and projected images all around for your child and so on.

毕竟孩子身边会有各种稀奇古怪的东西和投射的影像

So even a company like Lowes—they sell tools and so on.

所以即便是劳氏这样的公司——他们出售工具等

That’s the standard stuff.

那是常规产品

But they have this essentially a “holodeck” where you step in and you get to design your room and so on.

不过他们也有“全息甲板”之类的东西 你可以进去设计自己的房间什么的

You put on these VR glasses and you get to see everything before you buy it.

戴上VR眼镜 就能在买之前看到所有东西

They call this the “marriage saver.”

他们把这叫做“婚姻救世主”

And this is what companies, good companies try to do is cover that spectrum,

这就是公司 优秀的公司在做的事 他们囊括所有领域

so they can figure out exactly what’s going to work to pull them into the future.

这样才能弄清楚什么能让他们继续存活下去