In 2001, I was a brand new, shiny doctor, planning to save the world.
2001年，我还是个初出茅庐，踌躇满志的医生，盘算着拯救世界。
My first job was working for three months on a lung cancer unit.
我的第一份工作，是在肺癌部门工作了三个月。
Nearly all of my patients were smokers or ex-smokers,
几乎所有我的病人都是吸烟者，或有吸烟历史者，
and most of them had started smoking when they were children or in their early teens.
大多数人在他们还是孩子时就开始吸烟了。
And despite living in a beautiful, wealthy country,
尽管生活在美丽，富裕的国度，
with access to the most sophisticated medicines, nearly every single one of my patients died.
可以获取到最先进的医药，但他们当中几乎没有人逃脱了死亡的命运。
Everyone knows tobacco is bad, but when you see the impact firsthand, day-by-day, it leaves a very deep impression.
每个人都知道吸烟有害，但是你每天亲眼看到这种影响时，还是会印象深刻的。
Ten years later, I'm a radiation oncologist, fully aware of the suffering caused by tobacco.
十年后，我是放射肿瘤学家，非常清楚吸烟造成的痛苦。
I'm sitting at the hospital cafeteria, having my first ever meeting with a representative from my superannuation fund.
我坐在医院的餐厅，第一次与我的养老基金代表会面。
It was thrilling, I'm sure you can imagine.
实在令人激动，我相信你能想象。
He tells me I'm in the default option. And I said, "Option? Does that mean there are other options?"
他告诉我，我选择了默认选项。我说：“选项？还有其它选择？”
He looked at me, rolled his eyes, and said,
他看了看我，翻了下白眼说，
"Well, there is this one greenie option for people who have a problem with investing in mining, alcohol or tobacco."
“好吧，这是一个粗略的选项，（尤其）对那些对投资矿山，白酒或烟草行业有意见的人来说。”
I said, "Did you just say tobacco?" He said, "Yes."
我说：“你刚刚是说烟草？”他答道：“没错。”
I said, "So, are you telling me I'm currently investing in tobacco?"
我说：“你是说，我现在在投资烟草行业？”
And he said, "Oh, yes, everyone is."
他答复道：“没错，每个人都这样。”
When you invest in a company, you own part of that company.
当你投资一家公司时，你就拥有了这个公司的一部分。
You want that company to grow and succeed and thrive.
你想要这个公司成长、成功并繁荣。
You want that company to attract new customers, you want that company to sell more of its products.
你想让公司获取新客户，你想让公司卖出尽可能多的产品。
And when it comes to tobacco, I couldn't think of anything that I wanted less.
说到烟草行业，我想不出有任何我想要的东西。
Now, I know you can only see one person standing here on this big red dot, on this enormous stage.
现在，我知道你们只能看到一个人站在这里，在这个红色的、巨大的舞台上。
But instead, I would like you to imagine that you're looking at seven million people crammed up here beside me today.
然而，我想让你们想象一下，你今天看到的是700万人紧紧挨在我身旁。
Seven million people across the world have died as a result of tobacco in the past year alone.
仅在过去一年，全球就有700万人因为烟草而失去了生命。
Just imagine, if a brand new industry were launched today,
只需想一想，假如一个新行业今天成立，
and by the end of next June, that industry's products had killed seven million people.
到明年6月底时，这个行业的产品就会杀死700万人。
Would any of us invest in that new, deadly industry?
我们有人会投资这个新的致命行业吗？
Tobacco is one of the most pressing global issues of our time,
烟草是我们这个时代最紧迫的全球议题之一，
and most of us are far more complicit in the problem than we may realize.
我们大部分人涉及到这个问题中的程度远超我们的想象。
So, the super fund representative explained to me
于是，超级基金代表向我解释，
that tobacco companies would be found in the international shares portion of my portfolio.
烟草公司就存在于我投资的国际股票中。
So I asked him, "Well, which international shares do I have?"
于是我问他：“我有哪些国际股票？”
He got back to me two weeks later with this list:
两周后，他给我提供了一份名单：
my number one holding in international shares was British American Tobacco.
我在国际股票中的第一大持股来自英美烟草。
Number two, Imperial Tobacco. Number four, Philip Morris. And number five, the Swedish Match company.
第二个，帝国烟草。第四个：菲利普·莫里斯烟草公司。第五个：瑞典火柴公司。
Four of the top five companies were tobacco companies, my investments, an oncologist.
前5大公司中有4家是烟草公司，这是我的投资，一个肿瘤学家的投资。
And then I realized it wasn't just me. It was all members of my super fund.
随后我意识到这样做的不仅仅是我，还包括我的超级基金的所有成员。
And then I realized it wasn't just my super fund, it was all of them.
接着我意识到不仅只有我的超级基金，几乎所有养老基金都是。
And then I realized, it wasn't just superannuation funds, it was banks, insurers and fund managers.
再接着我意识到，不仅养老基金，银行，保险公司和基金管理者都有。
And then I realized it wasn't just Australia.
然后我意识到不仅限于澳大利亚。
It was the entire global finance sector, completely tangled up with the tobacco industry.
全球金融行业都是如此，与烟草业完全纠缠在一起。
The industry that makes products that kill seven million people every year.
这个行业的产品每年导致700万人死亡。
So I started discussing the issue with my superannuation fund, and I've been discussing it ever since.
于是我开始与我的养老基金团队讨论这个问题，从那以后我就一直在讨论这个问题。
Finance leaders have many challenging issues to deal with, these days.
今天，金融领导者们有许多棘手问题需要处理。
So I suggest they adopt a framework that clearly articulates why it is reasonable to take a strong position on tobacco.
所以我建议他们采用一个框架来清楚说明为什么投资如此多的烟草公司是合理的。
I suggest finance leaders ask a suite of three questions of any company in which they might invest our money.
我建议这些领导者们用我的钱投资公司时，先问三个问题。
Question one: Can the product made by the company be used safely?
问题1：公司生产的产品是否可安全使用？
"No" is the answer for tobacco companies.
“不能”，显然是烟草公司的答案。
Zero is the only safe number of cigarettes for a human being. It could not be more black and white.
对人类而言，无烟草是唯一安全的。再没有比这个答案更黑白分明的了。
Question two: Is the problem caused by the company so significant on a global level that it is subject to a UN treaty or convention?
问题2：公司引发的问题在全球是否显著到需要受联合国条约或公约的约束？
"Yes" is the answer for tobacco.
对烟草行业，答案是“是的”。
Indeed there is a UN tobacco treaty that has been ratified by 180 countries.
确实有一个联合国烟草条约，并得到了180个国家的批准。
The treaty was created because of the catastrophic global impact of tobacco.
条约之所以确立是因为烟草带来了灾难性的全球影响。
The current forecast is that the world is on track for one billion tobacco-related deaths this century.
目前的预测是，在本世纪内，全球将有10亿人死于与烟草有关的因素。
One billion deaths. There's only seven billion of us.
10亿人死亡。地球上一共才70亿人。
Question three relates to the concept of engagement.
第三个问题，涉及到参与的概念。
Many financial organizations genuinely want to be good corporate citizens.
许多金融机构真诚希望成为优秀企业公民。
They want to use their shareholder power to sit down with companies, engage with them, and encourage them to do better things.
他们想要使用他们的股东权力，与公司一道，通过参与，鼓励公司做更好的事情。
So the question is: Can engagement with the company be an effective lever for change?
所以问题在于：与公司的接触是否是改变的有效手段？
"No" is the answer for tobacco companies. Engagement with the tobacco industry is futile.
对烟草公司来说，答案是否定的。与烟草业的接触是徒劳的。
The only acceptable outcome would be if tobacco companies ceased their primary business.
唯一可以接受的结果是烟草公司停止他们的主营业务。
In fact, engagement with the tobacco industry has never led to less human death.
事实上，与烟草行业的接触从来没有降低死亡数字。
When we consider that framework, three simple questions,
如果我们考虑这个框架，三个简单的问题，
we can see that is reasonable and defensible to take a strong position and exclude investment in the tobacco industry.
我们可以看到，排除对烟草业的投资是合理的，站得住脚的。
In addition to the UN tobacco treaty, there is, in fact, another global treaty that demands that we act on tobacco.
事实上，除了联合国烟草公约，还有另一项全球条约要求我们对烟草采取行动。
In 2015, the UN adopted the Sustainable Development Goals.
2015年，联合国通过了《可持续发展目标》。
Now, we're talking about tobacco, and I know you're going to jump straight to number three: good health and well-being.
现在，谈到烟草业，我知道你们都会直奔第三个目标：健康和幸福。
And indeed, ramping up tobacco control regulation is essential if we're going to achieve that goal.
确实，加强烟草控制对于实现这个目标很关键。
However, look a bit more deeply, and you will find that 13 of the 17 goals cannot be achieved
然而，更深入一些，你会发现第13和第17个目标也无法实现，
unless there is a major shake-up of the tobacco industry.
除非烟草行业发生了重大的变革。
Personally, my favorite goal is number 17: partnerships for the goals.
我个人更青睐第17个目标：促进目标实现的伙伴关系。
At present, we have the entire global health sector doing everything it can to help the tidal wave of patients suffering as a result of tobacco.
现今，全球卫生部门正在尽其所能，帮助受烟草影响的患者。
But that said, in the past year alone, seven million people have died, so clearly, that is not enough.
话虽如此，在过去一年，700万的人还是因此失去了生命，所以很明显，这还不够。
We also have governments aligned on tobacco, 180 of them, busily trying to implement the provisions of the UN tobacco treaty.
各国政府也对烟草业采取了共同行动，有180个国家参与其中，忙着执行联合国烟草条约的规定。
But that, too, is not enough. If the global finance sector continues to lend money to tobacco companies,
但那也远远不够。如果全球金融部门继续借钱给烟草公司，
to invest in tobacco companies, and to strive to profit from tobacco companies, we are working against each other.
投资烟草公司，从烟草公司中赚取利润，我们实际上就是在相互对抗。
Now, if we are going to disrupt what doctors call "the global tobacco epidemic,"
现在，如果我们要打败医生所说的“全球烟草流行病”，
we need every sector of society to stand side by side and be part of the solution.
我们就需要社会的每个部门通力合作，成为解决问题的一部分。
So I call on finance leaders to implement a framework to deal with sensitive issues.
所以，我呼吁金融领导者们执行一个框架来处理这些敏感事项。
And I call on them to uphold global conventions. But in addition, there are business risks.
我同时呼吁他们支持全球公约。但除此之外，还存在商业风险。

Pure financial risks, associated with being invested in the tobacco industry over the long term,
纯粹的财务风险，与长期投资烟草行业有关，
and I ask finance leaders to consider them.
我呼吁金融领导者们也要考虑这些。
The first risk is that fewer and fewer people will smoke, as a result of increasing tobacco regulation.
首要风险是，随着烟草管制的增强，吸烟的人会越来越少。
When these warnings were put on cigarette packets in Canada,
当这些警告被印在加拿大香烟包装上时，
the first response of smokers was to give them right back to the salespeople and say,
吸烟者的第一反应是把烟还给销售人员，并说：
"Could you please just give me the ones that say they'll kill me?"
“你能不能给我写着吸烟致命的香烟。”
Regulation gets noticed, regulation reduces consumption, and we have 180 countries committed to more regulation.
管制引起关注，管制减少消费，我们有180个国家同意增强管制。
Let's talk about litigation and the risk that presents.
让我们来谈谈诉讼及其带来的风险。
At present, it's the business model of the tobacco industry that is being challenged.
当今，烟草行业的商业模式备受挑战。
Currently, the tobacco industry externalizes all of the health costs associated with tobacco.
目前，烟草行业将所有跟烟草相关的健康费用都外部化了。
Governments pay, communities pay, you pay, I pay.
政府买单，社区买单，你买单，我买单。
The tobacco industry externalizes all those costs, with an estimated one trillion US dollars per year.
烟草行业把这些锅甩得干干净净，据估计每年高达1万亿美元。
Yet they internalize and privatize the profits.
然而，他们却将利润内化，私有化。
In 2015, in Quebec province, the courts determined that the tobacco industry was indeed responsible for those health costs,
2015年，魁北克省，法院认定烟草业确实要为这些健康成本买单，
and ordered them to pay 15 billion US dollars. That case is under appeal.
命令他们支付150亿美元。此案仍在上诉中。
But it begs the question, why should any of us, in any country, be paying for the costs of the tobacco industry?
但它引出了这个问题，为什么我们所有人，所有国家，需要为烟草业的代价买单。
Let's move on to supply chain and the risk there.
让我们去看看供应链和其中的风险。
It is not well known that the tobacco industry significantly relies on child labor.
不为人所知的是，烟草业显著依赖童工。
In March 2017, the International Labour Organization issued a report which stated:
2017年3月，国际劳工组织发布了一份报告称：
"In tobacco-growing communities, child labor is rampant."
“在烟草种植的社区，童工现象十分猖獗。
The US Department of Labor currently lists 16 countries that use children to produce tobacco leaf.
美国劳工部门现已列出了16个使用童工生产烟叶的国家。
Scrutiny of supply chains is intensifying, and that cannot continue to escape public attention.
对供应链的审查力度正在增加，无法继续逃脱公众的视野。
Finally, there is also reputation risk to consider for individuals and organizations
最后，继续与烟草业保持关联的个人和组织，
that continue to maintain an affiliation with the tobacco industry.
还需要考虑声誉风险。
In countless surveys, the tobacco industry ranks as the world's least reputable industry.
在无数的调查中，烟草业都是世界上最臭名昭著的行业。
Let's just look at the impact on children. Globally, every single day, it is estimated that 100,000 children start smoking.
我们来看看对儿童的影响。全球范围内，每一天中，据估计有10万名儿童开始吸烟。
That's enough children to fit inside the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
这个人数足够站满墨尔本的板球场了。
And most of those children are from the poorest communities on earth.
这些儿童中的大多数都来自地球上最贫穷的社区。
Here in Australia, the average age that people start smoking is 16 years and two months.
在澳大利亚，人们开始吸烟的平均年龄是16岁2个月。
They look pretty young to me, but the worst thing here is that while we don't have data from every country on earth,
他们看起来都非常年轻，但更糟的是我们并没有全球每一个国家的数据，
we believe that is the oldest age. Everywhere else is younger.
而我们相信，这已经算是最大年龄了。其他地方的数字都要更年轻。
Now for the good news. Things are changing. The finance sector is coming to the party.
现在说点好消息。事情正在发生变化。金融部门正在参与其中。
After around 2,000 meetings with finance leaders,
在与金融人士的2000多次会谈后，
primarily in the cafés of Melbourne and Sydney and London and Paris and New York and all across the globe, momentum,
主要是在墨尔本和悉尼的咖啡厅里，以及伦敦、巴黎、纽约和全球各地，
moving away from investment in the tobacco industry, is starting to snowball.
不投资烟草业的势头已经开始像滚雪一样蔓延开来。
Finance leaders are alarmed when they're presented with the facts, and overwhelmingly, they want to be part of the solution.
当他们看到事实后，金融领袖警醒了，大多数人都希望参与到解决问题中来。
Here, in Australia, we now have 10,636,101 superannuation accounts that are tobacco-free. That one is mine, by the way.
这里，在澳大利亚，我们现在有10,636,101个养老账户不含任何烟草投资。顺便说一下，最后那个1是我的。
There is still a lot of work to be done,
仍然有很多工作要做，
but I've watched the conversation go from "Should we go tobacco-free?" to "Why haven't we done it yet?"
但我已经看到谈话的内容开始从“我们不应该投资烟草业吗？”发展到“为什么还没开始做呢？”
In the past year alone, major tobacco-free moves have been made by leading financial organizations in eight different countries.
单单在过去一年，已经有8个国家的主要金融组织落实了无烟草运动。
In Australia, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, Ireland and the USA.
它们是澳大利亚、新西兰、荷兰、瑞典、丹麦、法国、爱尔兰和美国。
By sovereign wealth funds, fund managers, pension funds, banks, insurers and reinsurers.
包括主权财富基金，基金经理，养老基金，银行，保险公司和再保险公司。
Since tobacco-free portfolios began, more than six billion dollars has been redirected away from investment in the tobacco industry.
随着无烟组合开始以来，超过60亿美元的资金已经从投资烟草业抽离出来。
The case study is well and truly proven.
这个案例研究已经很好地得到了证明。
When making the tobacco-free announcement in March this year, the CEO of AMP Capital said,
在今年3月份宣告无烟组合声明时，AMP资本的CEO说，
"We are not prepared to deliver investment returns at any cost to society."
“我们不打算在任何对社会造成损害的行业中获取投资回报”。
And that is the question we need to ask ourselves.
这个问题我们也需要问问自己。
Is there no baseline standard below which we will not sink to make profit?
我们赚取利润，有没有一个不能触及的底线？
Along the way, I've had a lot of help and incredible support.
在这个过程中，我得到了很多帮助和难以置信的支持。
Now, if you're trying to do something, I highly recommend that you have a princess on your team.
如果你想尝试做点事情，我隆重推荐，你的团队中要有位公主。
Her Royal Highness, Princess Dina Mired, is the global ambassador for this work.
公主殿下，迪娜公主，是这个工作的全球大使。
We also have a lord, a knight, a former premier, a former federal minister and a stack of CEOs.
我们也有一位领主，一位骑士，一位前总理，一位前联邦部长和多位首席执行官。
But the capacity to change things does not rest exclusively with these highly influential people.
但是，改变事情的能量并不仅限于这些具有高度影响力的人。
The power to do that is with all of us. Everyone here can be part of the solution.
我们所有人都有能力做到这点。这里的每个人都可以成为解决问题的一部分。
In fact, everyone here must be part of the solution.
事实上，这里每个人都必须成为解决问题的一部分。
Most people in this room own companies via their superannuation funds, their banks and their insurers.
这房间里的多数人都通过养老金、银行和保险机构投资了一些公司。
And it is time for us to ask them:
是时候该问问这些机构：
Are they investing our money in companies that make products that kill seven million people every year?
他们有没有把我们的钱，投资到生产的产品每年会杀死700万人的公司去？
It's your money. It's my money, it's our money. And that is a very reasonable question.
这是你的钱。这是我的钱，这是我们的钱。这是一个非常合理的问题。
Pretty cramped up here, with seven million people beside me today.
这里非常拥挤，今天有700万人站在我旁边。
But if we don't act now, and act together, we'll need to make way for one billion people before the end of this century.
如果我们不现在行动，共同行动，到本世纪末，我们就会让10亿人白白送死。
And this is a very big stage. But there is no more room. Thank you.
这是个巨大的舞台，但是已经没有更多的空间了。谢谢。