Since 1997, researchers at the University of Sussex have monitored global trends in armed conflict.
从1997年起，萨塞克斯大学的研究者就一直在监视武装冲突的全球趋势。
Their research clearly shows that in Africa, over the last 10 years, armed conflict has gone up by sevenfold.
他们的研究清楚显示出，过去十年间，在非洲，武装冲突增加了七倍。
Let's think about that: sevenfold in a single decade. Why is this?
咱们来想一下：十年就翻了七倍。为什么会这样？
We believe, as oxygen is to fire, so are unemployed youth to insecurity.
我们相信，就像氧气会助燃，失业的年轻人也会助长不安全感。
We have a lot of youth on this continent.
在这片大陆上有很多的年轻人。
Youth like Sandra, who, on a Saturday morning in March 2014,
像珊德拉这样的年轻人，在2014年三月的一个星期六早晨，
woke up excited at the prospects of getting a coveted job at the Nigerian Immigration Services.
她很兴奋地醒来，期待着得到她梦寐以求的工作，在尼日利亚移民服务局工作。
She kissed her daughter goodbye, left her home, never to return.
她和女儿道别时亲了女儿一下，离开家，没有再回来。
Sandra and 15 other young Nigerians died that day, applying for a job, in the ensuing stampede,
珊德拉和其他十五名尼日利亚年轻人那天因去应征工作而丧命，因为后来发生人群乱拥，
as tens of thousands of people applied for a few thousand open positions.
上万人要应征几千个职缺。
In the last 20 years, 20 million youth have entered the Nigerian workforce alone.
在过去二十年，就有两千万年轻人进入了尼日利亚的劳动力。
Today, half our population is under the age of 18.
现今，我们的一半人口不到十八岁。
That's almost 80 million people that will be entering the workforce in the next 20 years.
那是近八千万人，在接下来的二十年，他们会进入劳动力。
My friends, if a wave of 20 million people entering the workforce triggered Niger Delta crisis, Fulani herdsmen crisis and Boko Haram,
朋友们，如果一波两千万人的人潮进入劳动力，就触发了尼日尔三角洲危机、富拉尼牧人危机以及博科圣地，
I ask you: What will four times that number do?
那我想问各位：四倍的人数会造成什么后果？
To do my part to solve this challenge, in 2012, I moved to a small village in northern Nigeria,
为了要扮演好我的角色，解决这项难题，2012年，我搬到北尼日利亚的一个小村落，
in the center of the area most recently hit by the spread of insecurity, brutal bombings and searing poverty, with an idea:
它就位在近期受到不安全感、残酷炸弹攻击以及严重贫困所侵袭之区域的中心地点，我的想法是：
Could we create an economic buffer to halt the spread of this insecurity, by unlocking the power of agriculture as a job-creation engine?
我们能否释放出农业的力量，做为创造工作机会的引擎，以创造出一种经济缓冲，让不安全感的散播能够暂停下来？
We knew this had been done before in countries like Thailand, where, in 1980, they suffered from the same economic challenges as us.
我们知道在像泰国等国家以前就有这么做过，1980年，泰国遇到的经济挑战就和我们一样。
Today, however, Thailand produces two million cars a year -- more than the United Kingdom
然而，现今，泰国一年能生产出两百万台汽车，比英国还多；
with over 30 percent of its workforce as highly commercial, profitable small farmers, with an unemployment rate of less than one percent.
其劳动力有超过30%都是高度商业化、有利可图的小农夫，失业率还不到1%。
How did they do this? In the 80s, Thailand dramatically improved the productivity of its small farmers,
他们怎么办到的？在80年代，泰国大大改善了该国小农夫的生产力，
ensuring that it was able to start to dominate export markets for produce.
确保这样的生产力能够开始主导农产品出口市场。
Building on this strength, they attracted investment and started to process,
靠着这股力量，他们吸引了投资，开始加工，
being able to export higher-value products like starch from cassava.
得以出口更高价值的产品，比如木薯淀粉。
Finally, coupled with investment in education, they started to expand to even higher-value manufacturing.
最后，结合在教育的投资，他们就开始扩展到更高价值的制造。
To make our idea a reality and follow a path similar to Thailand, we knew that we would have to sell young farmers on farming.
为了要实现我们的想法并采用和泰国类似的做法，我们知道我们得要让年轻农夫相信农业是有价值的。
A young man in northern Nigeria, for the purpose of today's discussion, we'll call "Saminu,"
一位在北尼日利亚的年轻人，为了方便在此讨论，我们叫他萨米努，
made it very clear to me that this would not be easy.
他很清楚告诉我，这并不容易。
Saminu grew up in a beautiful village in northern Nigeria.
萨米努在北尼日利亚一个美丽的村落长大。
And he tells wondrous stories of playing for hours with his friends,
他会说许多奇妙的故事，内容是他和他的朋友玩耍数个小时，
running up and down the beautiful rock formations that dot the countryside around his home.
在美丽的岩石结构上跑上跑下，这些结构遍布在他家周围的乡间。
Despite this beauty, Saminu knew that the first chance he got, he would leave. He did not want to be a farmer.
尽管这里如此美丽，萨米努知道，只要一有机会，他就会离开。他不想要当农夫。
Growing up, he saw his parents work so hard as farmers, but barely get by. As he says, they had "babu" -- nothing.
成长过程中，他看见他的农夫父母非常努力，生活却只是勉强过得去。引用他的话，他们只有babu，就是一无所有。
Young farmers like Saminu do not have access to the cash to buy the farming products to pair with their hard work to be successful.
像萨米努这样的年轻农夫没有办法取得现金来购买耕作产品，配合他们的辛勤努力，所以很难成功。

When their meager harvest came in, desperate for cash, they would sell most of it at fire-sale prices,
当他们的收获量很少的时候，因为急需要现金，他们会把大部分收成用大拍卖的价格售出，
when, if they could just wait six months, they could get 50 percent more.
其实如果他们能再等六个月，就能多赚50%。
Hence, Saminu left to the city, where he soon realized that life was not easy.
因此，萨米努离开家乡前往城市。他很快就发现在城市生活并不容易。
He borrowed a very old motorcycle, with tires that were more patches than tires, to become a motorcycle taxi driver.
他借了一台非常旧的摩托车，轮胎比较像是补丁而不是轮胎，他开始当计程摩托车的司机。
He lived in constant fear every day that his precious, tattered motorcycle would be ripped away from him, as it had before.
每天，他时时刻刻都很害怕他会失去他那珍贵、破烂的摩托车，这以前就发生过。
But he got it back, thankfully. He knew of others, however, who were not so lucky
但谢天谢地他把车找回来了。然而，他也认识其他没他那么幸运的人，
other young men who, once they'd lost their motorcycles, became destitute.
这些年轻人一旦失去了他们的摩托车，就变成一贫如洗。
Angry, these young men set out to wreak vengeance on a society that they believed had turned its back on them.
盛怒之下，这些年轻人就打算要施行报复，报复对象是被他们认为已经背弃他们的社会。
Saminu told me that they joined insurgent groups, often acting as getaway drivers in bombings and kidnappings.
萨米努告诉我，他们加入反叛团体，常在炸弹攻击和绑票事件中担任载人逃离的开车司机。
To end this cycle of insecurity, we must make farming a viable choice.
如果要终止这个不安全感的循环，我们就得让农业成为一个可行的选择。
We must ensure that these young men, on their small farms, can earn enough money to make a life for themselves; to make a future.
我们得要确保这些年轻人，用他们自己的小农田，能够赚足够的钱来养活自己；建立一个未来。
The question now is how. Recognizing that Africa has grassroot-level leadership,
现在的问题是，怎么做？因为知道非洲有草根等级的领导，
we simply developed a model to bring the professional management and investment to scale to these grassroot leaders.
我们的做法很简单，就是开发一个模型，把专业管理和投资给扩大规模，带给这些草根领导人。
We called it "Babban Gona" -- "great farm" in Hausa.
用豪萨语叫做Babban Gona，意思是伟大的农田。
Upon reaching the village in 2012, I traveled from community to community,
在2012年到了村落之后，我四处拜访各个社区，
trying to convince people of our idea, trying to recruit farmer members.
试着用我们的想法来说服大家，试着招募农夫成员。
We failed woefully that first year, barely recruiting 100 brave souls. But we persevered.
第一年我们惨败，很勉强招募到一百个勇敢的人。但我们坚持了下去。
We kept doing what we promised, slowly we gained their trust. More farmers joined us. Fast-forward now five years.
我们持续努力实现我们的承诺，慢慢地，我们得到了他们的信任。更多农夫加入了我们。把时间快转五年到现在。
With a passionate and committed team and the tremendous support of our partners, we grew dramatically, today, serving 20,000 small farmers,
我们有个具热忱且投入的团队，合作伙伴也给予我们很大的支持，让我们能大大成长，现在，我们服务的小农人数达两万人，
enabling them to double their yields and triple their net income relative to their peers.
相对于他们的同行，他们的产量两倍，净收入三倍。
We are very proud of the fact...
我们非常骄傲...
Fast-forward three years, Saminu has earned enough money to buy three goats for his mother to start a goat-rearing business,
时间快转三年，萨米努赚足了钱，为他的母亲买了三只山羊，开始了饲养山羊的事业，
owns his own retail store and bought not one, but two motorcycles, with vanity license plates: "Babban Gona."
他拥有自己的零售商店，买了摩托车，且不只一台，是两台，还有很虚荣的车牌，写着Babban Gona。
My friends, in the next 20 years, over 400 million Saminus are entering the African workforce,
朋友们，在接下来的二十年，会有超过四亿个像萨米努这样的人进入非洲的劳动力，
with potentially half of them having opportunities in agriculture.
当中一半的人有机会在农业上发展。
To unlock these opportunities, through models similar to ours, they would require 150 billion dollars a year in financing.
若要透过类似我们的模型来释出这些机会，他们每年会需要一千五百亿的资金。
This is a big number. But if we can tap into commercial debt, it is a small number
这个数字很大。但如果我们能利用商业借款，这就是个小数字，
only 0.1 percent of all the debt in the world today, 10 cents out of every 100 dollars.
那仅是现今全世界所有借款的0.1%，也就是一百元中的十分钱而已。
This is why we designed our model to be very different from conventional agricultural development programs.
这就是为什么我们的模型设计会和常见的农业发展方案非常不同。
In a few short years, we have shown that our model works, is high-impact and can turn a profit,
在短短几年间，我们就展示出我们的模型是有用的，它具有很高的影响力且能赚到利润，
attracting commercial investors that do not typically invest in small farmers in Africa.
吸引那些通常不会投资在非洲小农身上的商业投资者。
Imagine a world where millions of young men across Africa, hardworking young men, have other options.
想象一个世界，在这个世界中，非洲各地的数百万年轻人，辛勤努力的年轻人，有其他的选择。
I know these driven, ambitious young men will make the right choice.
我知道这些有动机、有野心的年轻人会做出正确的选择。
We can realize this dream if they have a choice. Thank you.
我们可以实现这个梦，只要他们有选择的话。谢谢。