演讲文本

So imagine that you're a retired household in Belgium and someone comes to your front door.
想象一下你是一个比利时的退休老人，有一天有人跑来敲你家的门。
"Excuse me, would you mind if I peruse your stock portfolio?
“打扰了，你能跟我说下你的股票投资情况么？
Do you happen to know how much your house is worth? Do you mind telling me?
你知道自己的房子值多少钱么？方便告诉我么？
Would you happen to have a hallway that's more than 10 meters long?
你的走廊有10米这么长么？
If you do, would you mind if I timed how long it took you to walk down that hallway?
如果有，你能走一次让我看看需要多长时间么？
Would you mind squeezing as hard as you can, in your dominant hand, this device, so I can measure your grip strength?
你能否用你的惯用手，用力握这个设备，让我测试一下你的握力？
How about blowing into this tube so I can measure your lung capacity?"
你能否吹一下这个管子，让我测量一下你的肺活量？
The survey takes over a day.
一天过去了。

Combine that with a Demographic and Health Survey collected by USAID in developing countries in Africa, for example,
将这些数据与USAID（美国国际开发署）在非洲发展中国家的人口健康统计数据结合
which that survey actually can go so far as to directly measure the HIV status of families living in, for example, rural Nigeria.
USAID的数据很详细，例如，尼日利亚农村家庭中HIV感染情况等一手信息。
Combine that with a world value survey,
将这些数据与世界价值调查（value survey）结合，
which measures the political opinions and, fortunately for me, the savings behaviors
后者统计政治观点和，很幸运的，
of millions of families in hundreds of countries around the world.
全世界上百个国家上亿家庭的存储行为信息。
Take all of that data, combine it, and this map is what you get.
获得所有这些数据，综合起来，你就得到这样的一张图。
What you find is nine countries around the world that have significant native populations
你会发现全球范围内有九个国家，其国民中有相当多的人使用
which speak both futureless and futured languages.
没有区分将来时态和区分将来时态的语言。
And what I'm going to do is form statistical matched pairs
我接下来要做的就是通过统计匹配的方式
between families that are nearly identical on every dimension that I can measure,
找到各个方面都近似相同的家庭，
and then I'm going to explore whether or not the link between language and savings holds
然后去看看在控制了这些变量之后
even after controlling for all of these levels.
语言和储蓄之间是否还存在着联系。

视频及简介

演讲简介：

经济学家能从语言学家那里学到什么？行为经济学家基思·陈介绍了他的研究中发现的奇妙关联：没有区分将来时态的语言——“明天下雨”而不是“下明天的雨”——跟储蓄比例有很强的相关性。