Economists Worry Recession May Be ‘Underway Now’
美就业市场持续降温 多项数据拉响警报 专家：美国衰退或已经开始
Total employment increased by 236,000 in March—in line with economist expectations and marking the lowest monthly gain since December 2020, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.
The report comes after the Labor Department on Thursday made revisions to its latest data on jobless claims, indicating Americans filed an additional 142,000 first-time unemployment claims over the past three weeks—up 24% from levels previously reported.
The revisions fueled recession concerns that intensified this week, with "every major data point"—including jobless claims, manufacturing activity and construction spending—signaling the economy is slowing down and pushing some experts to worry it may be slowing down too quickly, says Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye.
"More likely than not, a recession is underway now," Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams said in a morning note, noting the updated Labor Department data means the uptick in continued jobless claims over the last six months is about as large as increases in recessions dating back to the 1970s.
Over the past month, the layoffs have spread to other industries, with retail giant Walmart and fast-food chain McDonald's among those cutting hundreds of jobs. On Thursday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported employers have cut roughly 270,400 jobs so far this year—a 396% jump from the same period in 2022.