HONG KONG — North Korea is one of the world’s most isolated countries. It is ruled by an unpredictable dictator with his finger on the nuclear button. So, who’s ready to do business there?
香港——朝鲜是世界上最孤立的国家之一。统治它的人是一个难以捉摸、手指放在核按钮上的独裁者。所以问题就来了，有人准备在那里做生意吗？
Well, basically nobody.
可以说，基本没有。
But leading up to President Trump’s meeting in Singapore with Kim Jong-un, which concluded on Tuesday with a deal to keep talking, some intrepid businesses and investors have begun considering the possibilities. What happens if North Korea opens its economy, even just a little, giving global businesses a shot as East Asia’s last untapped growth market?
但是，在特朗普总统与金正恩本周二在新加坡会晤、达成了继续谈下去的协议之前，一些勇敢的企业和投资者已经开始在考虑这种可能性了。如果朝鲜开放经济，哪怕只是一点点，让全球企业有机会在东亚最后一个蕴藏着增长潜力的市场试手的话，会发生什么呢？
Mr. Trump on Tuesday dangled visions of what North Korea could win if it abandoned its nuclear weapons and changed its ways.
特朗普周二提了，如果朝鲜放弃核武器、改弦更张，它会得到什么的愿景。
“As an example, they have great beaches,” he said at his news conference after the summit meeting. “You see that whenever they’re exploding their cannons into the ocean. I said, ‘Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?’”
“举个例子，他们有很棒的海滩，”他在峰会后的新闻发布会上说。“他们每次向大海开炮时，你们都能看见。我说，‘哇，那景色真不错。是个盖很棒的可出售公寓大楼的地方，不是吗？’”
Let’s back up. The chances are slim — very, very slim — to none that North Korea would open up like that in the foreseeable future. Still, some businesses are setting up internal task forces to start drawing up plans, according to lawyers and advisers who specialize in North Korea. Shares of companies that could profit are starting to rise, in what one analyst called the “Rocket Man rally.”
先退一步说。在可预见的未来，朝鲜会开放到那种程度的可能性微乎其微。尽管如此，一些企业正在内部组建特别工作组，开始起草计划，据律师和专门研究朝鲜问题的顾问说。有望从朝鲜获利的公司的股价在开始上涨，一位分析人士称这种上涨为“火箭人反弹”。
A few big companies have tentatively reached out to contacts in North Korea, said Wook Yoo, a partner at Bae, Kim & Lee, a South Korean law firm. Others have inquired about where to begin. “We have received calls from several companies which are quite interested in preparing future business with North Korea,” Mr. Yoo said.
几家大公司已与朝鲜的联系人进行试探性联系，韩国太平洋律师事务所的合伙人柳旭(Wook Yoo)说。其他公司也已在询问从何处下手。“我们接到了几家公司的电话，它们非常有兴趣为将来与朝鲜做生意做准备，”柳旭说。
It is not clear how many companies are looking at the idea, or which ones. Company officials are loath to discuss their plans publicly. Initial feelers into North Korea risk violating United States and international sanctions, which are not likely to ease anytime soon. Those restrictions have become so tight that investors have stopped early efforts to crack the market.
目前尚不清楚有多少公司在考虑这个想法，也不清楚正在这样考虑的公司的名字。公司官员不愿公开讨论他们的计划。进入朝鲜的初步试探有违反美国和国际制裁的风险，这些制裁不太可能很快得到缓解。制裁措施已经变得如此之严格，以至于投资者已停止了进入朝鲜市场的早期努力。
Even if progress were made, the world would still be dealing with a leader who diverted millions of dollars from his country’s economy to build powerful weapons, leading to food shortages for his people.
即使谈判取得进展，世界需要与之打交道的仍是这样一位领导人：他从本国经济中抽出数百万美元来制造强大的武器，让本国人民吃不饱饭。
Nevertheless, some in the business world find the idea intriguing. The North has a relatively young population and an underground entrepreneurial bent. It has a large amount of resources like rare earths and iron ore. And South Korea has offered the North a modernization plan that includes building railways and power plants.
尽管如此，一些商界人士还是觉得与朝鲜做生意的想法很迷人。朝鲜的人口相对年轻，有地下创业倾向。朝鲜有铁矿石和稀土等丰富的自然资源。韩国已向朝鲜提供了一个包括修建铁路和发电厂在内的现代化计划。
“This is where the money is to be made,” said Justin Hastings, an associate professor at the University of Sydney who wrote a book about North Korea’s economy. That is, “if you can figure out how not to get expropriated,” Mr. Hastings added, citing Pyongyang’s history of seizing assets.
“这就是能赚钱的地方，”贾斯汀·哈斯廷斯(Justin Hastings)说，他是悉尼大学(University of Sydney)的副教授，写过一本有关朝鲜经济的书。“如果你能想出不被没收的办法的话，”哈斯廷斯补充说，他指的是了平壤政府扣押资产的历史。
A sudden change in the North’s business climate also would not be unprecedented: Earlier this decade, once-closed Myanmar rapidly opened for business, attracting big companies from around the world.
朝鲜的商业环境突然改变也不是世界上没发生过的：在2010年代初，一度封闭的缅甸很快就开放了商业，吸引了来自世界各地的大公司。
“They want American investment coming to North Korea,” Chung-in Moon, a senior South Korean presidential adviser, said in April on CNN, adding that, “Yes, they want Trump Tower. They want McDonald’s and all these kinds of things.”
“他们希望美国来朝鲜投资，”韩国总统顾问文正仁(Chung-in Moon)今年4月在美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)上说，他还说，“是的，他们想要特朗普大厦(Trump Tower)。他们想要麦当劳和所有的这类东西。”
Nearly three-quarters of South Korean businesses would be willing to make an investment in North Korea once sanctions were lifted, according to a survey of 167 companies published last week by the Maeil Business Newspaper in South Korea.
韩国商业报纸《每日经济新闻》上周对167家公司进行的调查显示，一旦解除制裁，近四分之三的韩国企业会愿意在朝鲜投资。
When it comes to business, North Korea is not for the faint of heart. Its economy is half the size of South Korea’s sixth-biggest city. For businesses, electricity and water would have to be secured. Mr. Yoo, the lawyer, said that North Korea lacked a basic way for foreign companies to resolve business disputes.
提到经商，朝鲜可不是胆怯者去的地方。朝鲜的经济规模只有韩国第六大城市的一半。对企业来说，需要先让电力和水的供应得到保障。律师柳旭说，朝鲜缺乏让外国公司解决商业纠纷的基本途径。
Of the few Chinese, Japanese and South Korean companies that have ventured into the North, many have seen their assets confiscated.
在少数敢去朝鲜做生意的中国、日本和韩国公司中，好几家都有资产被没收的经历。
Xiyang Group, a Chinese mining company, finished building its first mine there in 2012 only to see North Korea kick its employees out of the country and take over. Xiyang said it lost about $45 million from the project.
2012年，中国矿业公司西阳集团在朝鲜完成了其第一个矿山建设项目，结果朝鲜却将公司员工赶走，接管了该公司的业务。西阳集团说，在那个项目上损失了约4500万美元。
The Kaesong Industrial Park, a manufacturing hub built by Hyundai on the North Korean side of the border more than a decade ago, was shut down twice before the North froze the South Korean assets two years ago. The 123 firms operating in the complex later said they lost a combined $1.3 billion.
开城工业园是现代汽车(Hyundai)十多年前在朝韩边境朝鲜一边建立的一个制造中心，曾两度关闭，两年前，朝鲜冻结了那里的韩国资产。在工业园有业务的123家公司后来表示，它们总共损失了13亿美元。
In addition, the North’s work force lacks basic skills, say those who have visited the country.
再就是，据去过朝鲜的人说，那里的劳动力缺乏基本技能。
“The biggest gap that we are trying to plug — and it’s really, really big — is how isolated North Korea has been,” said Geoffrey See, the founder of Choson Exchange, a nonprofit that organizes workshops with North Korean students, academics and scientists. “If you look at other countries that open up, they already have diaspora to bring back know-how.”
“我们正在试图弥补的最大空缺——那是一个非常、非常大的空缺——是朝鲜长期以来被孤立的程度，”施国兴(Geoffrey See)说，他是为朝鲜的学生、学者和科学家组织研讨会的非营利机构朝鲜交流中心(Choson Exchange)的创始人。“如果你看一下其他敞开国门的国家，你会发现，他们已经有了能把技术带回来的在海外居住的群体。”
Simply getting an answer can be hard, Mr. See said. He recalled sending an email a decade ago to an official in Pyongyang about opening up Choson Exchange. It took two months to get a response.
施国兴说，仅仅是得到一个答复都很难。他回忆起十年前给平壤的一位官员发关于成立朝鲜交流中心的电子邮件的事情。等了两个月才得到答复。
Then there is North Korea’s domestic companies and their deep connections with the government.
还有就是朝鲜国内公司的问题，以及它们与政府的深厚关系。
“There are vested interests in North Korea,” said Christopher Green, a researcher at Universiteit Leiden in the Netherlands who has interviewed North Korean defectors. “The economy is underdeveloped and there are people who are already making money there. The last thing a North Korea firm would like is for a South Korean firm like Samsung to come in.”
“朝鲜有既得利益群体，”荷兰莱顿大学(Universiteit Leiden)的研究员克里斯托弗·格林(Christopher Green)说。“虽然经济不发达，但有些人已经在那里赚钱了。朝鲜企业最不愿意看到的就是让像三星这样的韩国公司进来。”
Nevertheless, some see promise.
尽管如此，一些人还是看到了希望。
Shares in South Korean companies like Posco, the South Korean steel maker; SK Innovation, an oil refining company; and Korea Aerospace — firms that could profit from an economically open North Korea — have rallied over the past week. Ordinary mom-and-pop investors hopeful of a deal are contributing, said Paul Choi, head of Korea research at CLSA, the brokerage firm.
一些韩国公司的股票在过去一周里已经有所回升，包括钢铁企业浦项制铁(Posco)、炼油企业SK Innovation，以及韩国航空航天公司等，它们可能会从经济上开放的朝鲜获利。对达成协议满怀希望的普通投资者对股票的回升有所贡献，经纪公司里昂证券(CLSA)的韩国研究主管保罗·崔(Paul Choi)说。
In Europe, one entrepreneur who has done business in North Korea since the late 1990s was watching the summit meeting closely. “I’m cautiously optimistic,” said Paul Tjia, the founder of GPI Consultancy, which advises companies on offshoring their information technology operations.
在欧洲，一位自上世纪90年代末以来就开始在朝鲜做生意的企业家正在密切关注着此次峰会。“我持谨慎乐观态度，”荷兰的GPI咨询公司(GPI Consultancy)的创始人保罗·特贾(Paul Tjia)说。
“We are receiving more questions about North Korea from European companies,” Mr. Tjia said. He said he was planning an “information and communications technology mission” to North Korea in September in order to introduce European companies to the possibilities for outsourcing their basic technology and software development needs to North Korea.
“我们正在从欧洲公司那里接到更多的有关朝鲜的问题，”特贾说。他表示，他已在计划今年9月去朝鲜进行“信息和通信技术考察”，目的是给欧洲公司介绍将它们的基础技术和软件开发需求外包给朝鲜的可能性。
Hyundai has future plans for the Kaesong complex that include a zone for technology that could accommodate 2,000 companies and 600,000 employees, according to its website. It would even have a golf course.
据公司网站显示，现代汽车公司对开城工业园的未来计划包括了一个可容纳2000家公司和60万名员工的技术园区。园区里甚至还会有一个高尔夫球场。
And despite North Koreans’ lack of basic skills, the country has a class of would-be entrepreneurs who are eager to learn, said Mr. See of the Choson Exchange program, and others.
朝鲜交流中心的施国兴说，虽然朝鲜人缺乏基本的技能，但该国有一群渴望学习的潜在企业家。
Ian Collins, a consultant who traveled to the western North Korean city of Pyongsong in November through Choson Exchange, said one of the 80 participants in his workshop told him that some women had started a business renting out their bedrooms on an hourly basis to amorous young couples.
去年11月在朝鲜交流中心的安排下访问了朝鲜西部城市平城的咨询师伊恩·柯林斯说，参加他的研讨会的80人中有人告诉他，一些女性已经在用自己的卧室创业，把卧室按小时收费租给相恋的年轻人。

While there, Mr. Collins visited an “app store” — a place that sells smartphone apps, like people have in the rest of the world. But this one was a physical, bricks-and-mortar store in which employees loaded people’s phones with apps.
柯林斯在那里还参观了一个“应用商店”，那是一个销售智能手机应用的地方，就像世界上其他地方的人买的软件一样。但这是一家实实在在的实体店，员工们在店里给人们的手机装上应用软件。
“They have had to come up with side businesses because the state can’t look after them anymore and the gray economy is huge there,” he said.
“他们不得不出来干些副业，因为政府不再管他们了，那里的灰色经济规模巨大，”他说。
And, like budding entrepreneurs in any country, many are dreaming up business plans, Mr. Collins said.
就像任何国家崭露头角的企业家那样，许多人都在构思商业计划，柯林斯说。
“One of the questions I got asked was, ‘What innovation is going to provide the most amount of profit?’”
“人们问我的问题之一是，‘什么创新能带来最大的利润？’”