For the past six years, there have been two Arab worlds. The world of violence and tragedy; and the world of glitz and globalisation. Syria, Iraq, Libya and, to a lesser extent, Egypt — have been engulfed by conflict. But Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have prospered as global hubs for travel, leisure, business and finance. The booming Gulf metropolises seemed untouched by the violence in the rest of the Middle East. They even profited indirectly, as safe havens in a region in turmoil.
过去6年里，一直存在着两个阿拉伯世界：暴力与悲剧的阿拉伯世界；以及浮华与全球化的阿拉伯世界。叙利亚、伊拉克、利比亚都陷入了冲突，埃及也是如此，不过程度较轻。但是，卡塔尔、阿布扎比和迪拜一直蓬勃发展，成为了全球旅游、休闲、商业与金融中心。这些蒸蒸日上的海湾大都会似乎没有受到中东其他地区暴力活动的影响。它们甚至间接获益了——充当了一个混乱地区中的安全港。
But the wall between the two Arab worlds is breaking down. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (which includes Abu Dhabi and Dubai) have imposed a blockade on Qatar — claiming that the Qataris have been supporting jihadi movements across the region, and particularly in Syria and Libya. As a result, the illusion that the wealthy Gulf could remain uncontaminated by the wider conflicts in the Middle East has been shattered.
但是，分隔两个阿拉伯世界的高墙正在坍塌。沙特阿拉伯、巴林、埃及和阿联酋（包括阿布扎比和迪拜）对卡塔尔实施了封锁——声称卡塔尔人一直在支持全地区、尤其是叙利亚和利比亚的圣战运动。结果是，如下幻觉被击碎了：富裕的海湾地区可以继续不受中东更广泛冲突的影响。

The obvious question is whether the dazzling rise of the Gulf states could be followed by an equally dazzling fall. If that were to happen, the implications would be global.
显而易见的问题是，这些海湾国家在耀眼的崛起之后，是否可能迎来同样耀眼的坠落？如果发生这种情形，其后果可能是全球性的。
One of the reasons that the world has been able to look on with chilling indifference as Syria and Libya disintegrate is that neither country plays a major role in the world economy. But that is not true of the Gulf states. A security crisis there would be felt in boardrooms and finance ministries all over the world.
当叙利亚和利比亚陷入分裂时，世界一直能以令人心寒的冷漠旁观，原因之一在于，这两个国家在世界经济中都不扮演重要角色。但是，海湾国家并非如此。海湾国家一旦发生安全危机，全世界的董事会议室和财政部都将感受到其影响。
Although they are tiny places — Qatar and the UAE have populations of 2.2m and 9.1m respectively — the Gulf states play an outsize role in the global economy. Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. The Qatar Investment Authority holds large stakes in important western companies such as Volkswagen and Barclays — and has also invested its petrobillions in trophy assets around the world, including the Shard, London’s tallest building, and Harrods department store. The Qataris are also due to host the football World Cup in 2022.
尽管海湾国家都是弹丸之地——卡塔尔和阿联酋的人口分别为220万和910万——但它们在全球经济中扮演着极其重要的角色。卡塔尔是世界上最大的液化天然气(LNG)出口国。卡塔尔投资局(Qatar Investment Authority)持有大众(Volkswagen)和巴克莱(Barclays)等重要西方公司的大量股权，也把数十亿的石油美元投向全球一些值得炫耀的资产，比如伦敦最高建筑“碎片大厦”(Shard)，以及哈罗得百货(Harrods)。卡塔尔还将主办2022年世界杯(World Cup)足球赛。
Dubai, meanwhile, has cleverly leveraged its proximity to Europe, South Asia, Africa and Russia to turn itself into the playground of the Middle East. The world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, stands in downtown Dubai and Emirates airline is one of the largest in the world. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority controls assets of more than $800bn, which makes it the second-largest sovereign wealth fund in the world — and one of the world’s largest property owners.
另一方面，迪拜聪明地利用了其临近欧洲、南亚、非洲和俄罗斯的优势，把自己打造成了中东的游乐场。世界最高建筑哈利法塔(Burj Khalifa)坐落于迪拜市中心，阿联酋航空(Emirates Airline)是全球最大航空公司之一。阿布扎比投资局(Abu Dhabi Investment Authority)管理着逾8000亿美元的资产，是全球第二大主权财富基金，以及全球最大的房产持有者之一。
And then there is Saudi Arabia — the biggest and most powerful country in the region — whose status as the world’s largest oil producer has long underlined its significance to the global economy.
接着是中东地区最大、最有实力的沙特阿拉伯，长期以来，沙特全球最大产油国的地位凸显了它对于全球经济的重要性。
It is hard to believe that the Gulf elites would risk their pleasantly privileged lives by plunging into conflict. But even before the Qatari crisis, tension has been rising in the region.
海湾精英阶层过着令人羡慕的特权生活，很难相信他们会愿意冒着失去这种生活的风险，投身于冲突中。但是，即便在卡塔尔危机爆发之前，中东地区的紧张局势也一直在升级。
The Saudi and Emirati complaint that the Qataris have been funding jihadis across the region has been echoed by western officials. But the argument that this dispute is solely about terrorism is undermined by the fact that the Saudis themselves have been notorious for exporting and promoting the Salafi ideology that underpins jihadi movements.
沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋抱怨卡塔尔人一直在资助中东圣战分子，西方官员也这样说。但是，这场争端仅仅关乎恐怖主义的主张，被如下事实削弱了：沙特人自己因为输出和推广萨拉菲(Salafi)意识形态而臭名昭著，该意识形态正是圣战运动的支柱。
The reality is that the Saudis have long resented Qatar’s successful efforts to strut the international stage as an independent actor — something symbolised by the country’s sponsorship of Al Jazeera, which has provided a platform for the Muslim Brotherhood, a group detested by the Saudis. Saudi Arabia also believes Qatar has got far too close to Iran.
事实上，对卡塔尔成功地以独立力量的姿态趾高气昂地行走在国际舞台上，沙特人长期感到不满。卡塔尔这一姿态的标志是，它赞助半岛电视台(Al Jazeera)。半岛电视台为沙特人憎恨的团体穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)提供了一个平台。
This fear of rising Iranian influence across the region has already led the Saudis and the Emiratis to go to war in neighbouring Yemen — with grim consequences for the civilian population. One ironic consequence of the blockade of Qatar is that it could force the country to get closer to Iran.
对伊朗在中东不断扩大的影响力的担忧，已导致沙特和阿联酋对邻国也门开战，战争让平民遭殃。封锁卡塔尔的一个具有讽刺意味的后果是，这可能迫使该国向伊朗靠得更近。
Under normal circumstances, the US would do its utmost to smooth over a dangerous dispute between its Gulf allies. But these are far from normal times in Washington. Donald Trump has taken the Saudi side in the dispute — indeed the US president may well have given the green light to the Saudi-led blockade, during his visit to the kingdom last month.
在正常情况下，美国将尽最大努力平息各海湾盟国之间的危险争端。但现在华盛顿远非处于正常时期。唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在这场争端中站到了沙特那边，实际上在上月访问沙特时，这位美国总统很可能对这场沙特主导的封锁点了头。
By contrast, the State Department and the Pentagon are clearly trying to play a more neutral role, not least because Qatar is host to the largest American air base in the Middle East.
相比之下，美国国务院和五角大楼明显正努力采取更中立的立场，重要原因在于美国在卡塔尔设有其中东地区最大的空军基地。
Qatar has reason to be thankful for the large US military presence in the country. Were it not for that, the Qataris would be much more vulnerable to a Saudi-led military intervention. Even so, it is unclear whether the Saudis and Emiratis have a plausible endgame in mind, short of total capitulation by Qatar. If that is not achieved in short order, the risks of a military conflict will remain and the economic damage from the blockade will grow and contaminate the region.
卡塔尔有理由感激美国在本国的大规模军事存在。如果不是因为这一点，卡塔尔人在面对一场沙特领导的军事干预时将更为脆弱。即便如此，除了卡塔尔完全投降之外，沙特人和阿联酋人心里是否还设想了别的什么可能实现的结局，我们不得而知。如果卡塔尔没有在短期内完全投降，那么军事冲突的风险将持续存在，封锁造成的经济损失将越来越大，并影响整个中东地区。
For residents and tourists in the Gulf, the wars in the Middle East have been taking place in flyover country — places that they can glance down at from thousands of feet, as they take their Emirates or Etihad flights to Europe or the US. But the Qatar crisis suggests that the days when the tragedies of the Middle East could be kept at a safe distance from the booming Gulf may be over.
对于海湾地区的居民和游客而言，中东战争一直在他们飞行时经过的国家里上演——在乘坐阿联酋航空或阿提哈德航空(Etihad)航班前往欧洲或美国途中，他们可以从数千英尺的高空俯视这些地方。但卡塔尔危机暗示，那个蒸蒸日上的海湾地区能够跟中东悲剧保持安全距离的日子，也许已一去不复返。