人民币政策背后的木马战略和全球目标(上)
日期:2016-10-26 10:46

(单词翻译:单击)

人民币政策背后的木马战略和全球目标

China long kept a tight hold on its currency as a way to control its economy and to help its factories sell their products overseas.

为了控制本国经济,帮助国内工厂在海外销售产品,中国对自己的货币一直管得很严。

But China has grown in economic power and ambition, and the old restrictions are not helping a country that hopes to call more of the world’s financial shots.

但中国的经济实力和雄心都已经壮大了起来,对于一个希望在世界金融中能更多地呼风唤雨的国家,这些旧有的限制无法提供帮助。

In his new book, Gaining Currency: The Rise of the Renminbi, Eswar S.

埃斯瓦尔•S•普拉萨德(Eswar S.

Prasad describes how China’s view of its currency has evolved, starting from the Han dynasty — China invented paper money, of course — to today’s globally ambitious leadership.

Prasad)在自己的新书《不断升值的货币——人民币的崛起》(Gaining Currency: The Rise of the Renminbi)中,自汉朝——当然,纸币就是中国发明的——到希望雄心勃勃引领全球的今天,描述了中国对其货币看法的演化。

Mr Prasad, a professor at the Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, was formerly head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division.

普拉萨德曾任国际货币基金组织的中国事务主管,现为康奈尔大学戴森应用经济与管理学院教授兼布鲁金斯学会高级研究员。

In an interview, he explained China’s motivations, how money can be a back door to overhauling the country’s financial system and why some people fear a financially powerful China.

在采访中,他解释了中国的动机、货币是怎样能成为彻底改革国家金融体系的后门的,以及为什么有些人害怕金融上强大的中国。

Why is China reconsidering the role of its currency?

为什么中国在重新考虑其货币的角色?

China is increasing its dominance in the world economy.

中国正在加强其在世界经济上的主导地位。

But there was a sense that China wasn’t getting the respect that it felt it deserved.

但目前有一种意识,即中国没有得到它觉得自己应得的尊重。

One of the manifestations of that was that its currency was not quite seen as an elite currency.

这个问题的表现之一,是中国的货币还没有被完全视为精英货币。

Chinese policy makers, especially the more reformist-minded officials, recognized that China needs to do a lot of work to get its financial markets ready before the renminbi could become a prominent international currency.

中国的决策者们,特别是那些致力于改革的官员们认识到,在人民币成为重要国际货币之前,中国需要让自己的金融市场有所准备,因此有大量的工作要做。

Of course, there is a lot of opposition to such reforms because the system worked well for a lot of politically and economically powerful people.

当然,有很多人反对这种金融改革,因为现行体制对许多政治、经济上强大的人很有利。

About three or four years ago, these reformist-minded officials had a very important insight: If they could get the Chinese people and leadership to sign on to making the renminbi a great global currency, that could provide a very useful mechanism for getting around the opposition and putting in place a lot of reforms.

大约三、四年前,这些致力于改革的官员有了一个非常重要的洞悉:如果他们能够得到中国人民和中国领导人的支持,让人民币成为重要全球货币,这就可以提供一个非常有用的机制,绕过反对意见,让许多改革措施得以实施。

Ultimately it would be good for China, no matter what happened to the currency.

不管人民币发生什么,这最终都将对中国有利。

I view this as a sort of Trojan horse strategy.

我认为这是一种特洛伊木马策略。

Making the currency international requires meeting requirements from foreign institutions like the I.M.F.

让货币国际化需要满足来自国际货币基金组织等外国机构的要求。

At the same time, China is increasingly wary of what it calls Western influences.

与此同时,中国对所谓的西方影响越来越担心。

Can those external pressures still help China overhaul its financial system?

这些外部压力还能帮助中国彻底改革其金融体系吗?

These serve a very positive role, but they must come from the right sources in the right fashion.

虽然这些外部压力能起一种非常积极的作用,但压力必须来自合适的地方,以对的方式进行施加。

When the US Treasury or the I.M.F. tells China to allow its currency to appreciate, that is seen as something that is not necessarily in China’s best interest.

当美国财政部或国际货币基金组织告诉中国要允许其货币升值时,这种要求被视为不一定是符合中国最佳利益的东西。

When it comes to matters where the West has some sort of prize to offer, that changes the dynamic.

当涉及到西方可以提供某种奖励的事情时,情况就会有所改变了。

We’ve seen some examples of that over the last year and a half.

我们在过去一年半中看到了一些这种例子。

When China decided it wanted to get the renminbi into the I.M.F.’s elite basket of currencies, it felt that this would be a great way of getting more prestige for its currency in one fell swoop.

当中国决定让人民币进入国际货币基金组织的精英货币篮子时,它觉得这是一下子能为人民币赢得更大声望的好办法。

The I.M.F. and China came together and decided on a checklist of things that China needed to accomplish over the next year.

国际货币基金组织与中国一起制定了一个清单,需要中国在之后一年里完成。

That checklist turned out to be very useful particularly for the People’s Bank of China [China’s central bank] in pushing out its reforms.

这份清单被证明非常有用,尤其是对(中国的央行)中国人民银行改革措施的推出。

After the 2008 financial crisis, the United States pumped money into its financial system, which in effect lowered the value of China’s vast holdings of American debt.

2008年金融危机之后,美国向其金融体系输入了大量货币,这实际上降低了中国持有的庞大美国债务的价值。

How has that affected China’s ambitions for its currency?

这件事情是怎样影响中国对其货币的野心的?

It is a matter of enormous frustration for China that the US has such a dominant role in global finance.

美国在全球金融中有如此主导性的作用,对中国来说是一个巨大的烦恼。

Because of its old policies, China has become even more vulnerable to US policy, especially monetary policy.

中国过去的政策让这个国家更容易受美国政策、特别是美国货币政策的影响。

Chinese are net creditors to the rest of the world.

中国是世界上其他地方的净债权人。

That is, the world owes China a lot more than China owes to the world.

也就是说,全世界欠中国的钱,比中国欠世界的多。

But the net income that China’s earning — the amount paid by foreign investors minus the amount it pays out to foreign investors — is in fact negative.

但中国的净收入实际上是负的,净收入指的是外国投资者支付的金额减去向外国投资者支付的金额。

Foreign investors get pretty good returns in China.

外国投资者在中国有相当好的回报。

But China, because most of its foreign assets are in the form of US Treasuries and the government securities of other advanced economies, is earning piddling rates of return.

但因为中国大部分的国外资产以美国国债和其他发达经济体的政府证券的形式持有,中国只得到了极低的利息回报。

The fact that the US dollar is so dominant in global finance, and also that the architecture of global finance is controlled by the US and the Western economies, frustrates the Chinese.

美元在全球金融中占主导地位,以及全球金融体系的构架由美国和西方经济体控制的事实,都让中国人不满。

I think the Chinese feel that the system is stacked against them.

我觉得中国人认为这个体系对自己不利。

Many foreign economists say China should loosen its grip on its financial system — opening the capital account, as policy wonks call it.

许多外国经济学家说,中国应该放松对本国金融体系的控制,用政策人士的话说,应该开放资本账户。

But you quote one respected Chinese voice, Justin Lin Yifu, criticizing that view.

但你引用了批评这种观点的一个备受尊重的中国声音——林毅夫。

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