In the town where Napoleon ended his advance into Russia in 1812 and began his long retreat, his opponents put up a plaque reading “end of offensive”. The Centre International de Conférences d’Alger in Algiers, where Opec ministers agreed a change of strategy last month, deserves a similar memorial to the oil price war that began in 2014.

1812年，在拿破仑(Napoleon)结束对俄罗斯的突进、开始长途撤退的城镇，他的敌人竖起了一块纪念匾，上面写着“进攻的终结”。上月，欧佩克(OPEC)成员国的部长们在阿尔及尔的阿尔及尔国际会议中心就改变策略达成一致，这里也值得立起一块相同的纪念碑，纪念2014年开始的石油价格战。

The cut in Opec’s oil production announced by the ministers has yet to be implemented. But merely by agreeing they needed to pump less oil, the cartel conceded that its attempt to force rival producers out of the market is not working. The oil price war may not be over but it looks as though fortunes are shifting.

欧佩克部长们宣布的石油减产还未开始实施。但仅仅是就它们需要减产达成一致，这个产油国联盟就已经承认，它们把竞争生产方挤出市场的尝试并未奏效。油价战争或许并未终结，但看起来风向正在发生改变。

When Saudi Arabia, Opec’s de facto leader, sent prices tumbling in 2014 by refusing to cut crude production in the face of a growing global glut, some expected that the US industry would swiftly collapse. Since 2008, oil production in the US has been transformed by advances in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and horizontal drilling, which made it viable to extract crude from previously unprofitable shale rock. But US producers had relatively high costs, and had been unable to cover their capital spending from their cash flows, relying on a steady supply of debt and equity capital to stay in business.

2014年，欧佩克事实上的领导者沙特阿拉伯在面对日益加剧的全球供应过剩时，拒绝削减原油产量，从而造成油价暴跌。当时有人预计美国石油业将迅速崩溃。此前，自2008年起，水力压裂和水平钻井技术的进步转变了美国石油生产的面貌，能够从以往无利可图的页岩中提取原油。但美国石油生产商成本相对较高，无法用现金流来覆盖它们的资本支出，需要依靠稳定的债务和股权资本供应来维持业务。

Yet far from collapsing, the US shale industry has ridden out the downturn in oil prices and over the summer has even started to expand again. The frackers have saved themselves partly thanks to their ability to evolve. Hardship has been a spur to innovation and production costs have dropped by about 40 per cent since 2014.

然而，美国页岩油行业不仅没有崩溃，还安然度过了油价下跌期，甚至从2016年夏天开始再度扩张。利用水力压裂法的石油生产商能够保全自身，部分要归功于它们的演变能力。困境激发了创新，自2014年以来它们的生产成本降低了大约40%。

The other critical factor has been the strength and depth of US capital markets, supported by a Federal Reserve stance that has encouraged risk-taking.

另一个关键因素是美国资本市场的实力和深度，还有美联储(Fed)鼓励冒险的立场给予支持。

When the price war began, it was obvious that the know-how for shale oil could not be uninvented. What Saudi Arabia could do was cut off the flow of investment into US shale and other higher-cost reserves. That plan met some success: in the past couple of years investment in the oil industry has slumped worldwide, and the number of oil rigs running in the US dropped 80 per cent between October 2014 and May 2016.

价格战开始时就很明显的是，页岩油领域技术诀窍的发明不可能被逆转。沙特能做的就是切断对美国页岩油和其他成本较高的石油储量的投资流。该计划取得了一些成功：过去两年世界各地对石油业的投资都出现了暴跌；从2014年10月到2016年5月，在美国作业的石油钻井的数量下降了80%。

As bad as conditions were, however, capital never stopped flowing to the US industry. This has been a record year for equity sales by smaller North American exploration and production companies. Bond sales and bank lending have slowed but the more financially secure companies have been able still to borrow.

然而，尽管情况很糟糕，但资本从未停止流向美国石油业。今年是北美地区规模较小的石油勘探和生产公司股权销售创纪录的一年。债券发售和银行借贷已经放缓，但财务状况更良好的公司依然能够借款。

Even markets that had been frozen are starting to thaw. Last week Extraction Oil & Gas held a successful initial public offering, the first for a US oil production company since the summer of 2014. Several other IPOs are being prepared.

甚至此前冻结的市场也开始解冻。上周，Extraction Oil & Gas成功地进行了首次公开发行(IPO)，这是自2014年夏天以来首家进行IPO的美国石油生产公司。还有几个IPO正在准备之中。

More than 100 North American exploration and production companies have gone bankrupt since the start of 2015 but generally they have been the stragglers with higher debts and higher costs. The stronger companies have survived and are well placed to expand, and the number of oil rigs running in the US is rising again.

自2015年初以来，超过100家北美石油勘探和生产公司破产，但一般来说，这些公司本来就是债务和成本较高的挣扎者。更强大的公司生存了下来，并且处于扩张的有利地位，在美国作业的石油钻井数量再次上升。

The real financial strain is emerging outside the US: in the economic crises in Venezuela and other Opec members and in the pressure on the dividends of large international companies such as Royal Dutch Shell.

真正的财务压力在美国以外出现：委内瑞拉和其他欧佩克成员国爆发了经济危机，像荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)这样的大型跨国公司的股息正遭受压力。

Opec’s announcement is a sign that it has sensibly moved past hopes of crushing US shale production and is planning for coexistence. It may be painful for some but it is unavoidable. A strategy that relied on breaking the confidence of US investors, it has turned out, was about as effective as marching on Moscow.

欧佩克的声明表明，该组织已经理智地放弃过去寄希望于压垮美国页岩油生产的立场，而是计划与之共存。这对某些人来说可能是痛苦的，但也是不可避免的。事实表明，一个依赖于摧毁美国投资者信心的战略，和当年拿破仑进军莫斯科的战略一样效果不佳。